Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 3
April 29, 2026 04:00
✓Model correct — prediction O'Higgins
Martin Sarrafiore
4'
F. Gonzalez
(ast. Martin Sarrafiore)
59'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave O'Higgins a 60% win probability (draw 23%, Boston River 15%). The final result was O'Higgins 2–0 Boston River.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
5
5
Shots on target
2
1.70
Actual xG
0.37
2
Saves
3
57%
Possession
43%
4
Corners
5
16
Tackles
6
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
2
Match Events
⚽Martin Sarrafiore
4'
46'
F. Munoa
/
F. Perez
46'
F. Dafonte
⚽F. Gonzalez
· ast. Martin Sarrafiore
59'
62'
F. Barrios
/
F. Dafonte
62'
L. Suhr
/
G. Reyna
B. Rabello
63'
L. Pavez
66'
68'
L. Suhr
72'
J. Acosta
/
Y. Gonzalez
B. Rabello
/ B. Yanez
72'
A. Castillo
/ T. Vecino
79'
Martin Sarrafiore
/ M. Maturana
79'
82'
F. Martinicorena
/
F. Bonfiglio
M. Brizuela
/ L. Diaz
88'
F. Gonzalez
/ J. Tapia
88'
89'
J. S. O'Neill Lopez
Pre-match prediction
60.97%
O'Higgins ←
23.91%
X
15.12%
Boston
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (O'Higgins)
60.97%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.84
1.70
-0.14
0.75
0.37
-0.38
O'Higgins dominated by xG (1.70 vs 0.37).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
31
Omar Carabalí
G
6
L. Pavez
D
33
M. Brizuela
88'
D
21
D
3
Felipe Faúndez
D
11
J. Leiva
M
8
F. Ogaz
M
F. Ogaz
M
7
Martin Sarrafiore
1 ⚽
1 👟
79'
M
10
B. Rabello
74'
M
B. Rabello
74'
M
24
F. González
1 ⚽
88'
M
F. González
1 ⚽
88'
M
9
A. Castillo
79'
F
A. Castillo
79'
F
Bench
20
L. Diaz
8'
D
14
M. Maturana
17'
M
32
T. Vecino
17'
F
T. Vecino
17'
F
1
G
24
Jairo O'Neil
89'
D
13
Ignacio Fernandez
D
30
Martín González
D
23
Mateo Rivero
D
21
F. Perez
45'
M
10
A. Amado
M
14
Federico Dafonte
62'
M
99
G. Añasgo
62'
M
G. Añasgo
62'
M
8
Francisco Bonfiglio
82'
F
32
Yair González
72'
F
Bench
9
Alexander González
F
29
Andy López
M
26
Facundo Muñoa
51'
M
5
Francisco Barrios
34'
M
11
Gastón Ramírez
M
31
Juan Acosta
24'
D
12
Juan Ignacio González
G
16
Leandro Suhr
6'
F
20
Marcelo Hornos
M
3
Marco Mancebo
D
Best on the pitch
F. González
M · O'Higgins
9.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 28 pass
Martin Sarrafiore
M · O'Higgins
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 22 pass
J. Leiva
M · O'Higgins
7.70
· 63 pass
Omar Carabalí
G · O'Higgins
7.50
· 33 pass
F. Ogaz
M · O'Higgins
7.50
· 57 pass
M. Maturana
M · O'Higgins
7.20
· 11 pass
O'Higgins — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Carabalí | G | 96 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | — | — | — |
| L. Pavez | D | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 43 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Brizuela | D | 88 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 40 | 36% | — | — | — |
| D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 49% | 2 | — | — | |
| Felipe Faúndez | D | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Leiva | M | 96 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 63 | 60% | 6 | — | — |
| F. Ogaz | M | 96 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 57 | 52% | 3 | — | — |
| Martin Sarrafiore | M | 79 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Rabello | M | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 26% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. González | M | 88 | 9.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 28 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Castillo | F | 79 | 7.20 | — | — | 5 | 24 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Diaz | D | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| M. Maturana | M | 17 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 11% | — | — | — |
| T. Vecino | F | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Boston River — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Jairo O'Neil | D | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | 1 |
| Ignacio Fernandez | D | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 43% | — | — | — |
| Martín González | D | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Rivero | D | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Perez | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| A. Amado | M | 96 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 48 | 40% | — | — | — |
| Federico Dafonte | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | — | 1 | — |
| G. Añasgo | M | 62 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Francisco Bonfiglio | F | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Yair González | F | 72 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Facundo Muñoa | M | 51 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Francisco Barrios | M | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Acosta | D | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| Leandro Suhr | F | 6 | 4.90 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of O'Higgins vs Boston River?
The final score was O'Higgins 2–0 Boston River.
What did the model predict before O'Higgins vs Boston River?
The model assigned 60% probability to a O'Higgins win, 23% to a draw, and 15% to an Boston River win.