Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 3
April 29, 2026 04:00
✓Model correct — prediction O'Higgins
Martin Sarrafiore
4'
F. Gonzalez
(ast. Martin Sarrafiore)
59'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave O'Higgins a 60% win probability (draw 23%, Boston River 15%). The final result was O'Higgins 2–0 Boston River. In 1 previous meetings, O'Higgins have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Boston River.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
5
5
Shots on target
2
1.70
Actual xG
0.37
2
Saves
3
57%
Possession
43%
4
Corners
5
16
Tackles
6
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
2
Match Events
⚽Martin Sarrafiore
4'
46'
F. Munoa
/
F. Perez
46'
F. Dafonte
⚽F. Gonzalez
· ast. Martin Sarrafiore
59'
62'
F. Barrios
/
F. Dafonte
62'
L. Suhr
/
G. Reyna
B. Rabello
63'
L. Pavez
66'
68'
L. Suhr
72'
J. Acosta
/
Y. Gonzalez
B. Rabello
/ B. Yanez
72'
A. Castillo
/ T. Vecino
79'
Martin Sarrafiore
/ M. Maturana
79'
82'
F. Martinicorena
/
F. Bonfiglio
M. Brizuela
/ L. Diaz
88'
F. Gonzalez
/ J. Tapia
88'
89'
J. S. O'Neill Lopez
Pre-match prediction
60.97%
O'Higgins ←
23.91%
X
15.12%
Boston
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (O'Higgins)
60.97%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.84
1.70
-0.14
0.75
0.37
-0.38
O'Higgins dominated by xG (1.70 vs 0.37).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
31
Omar Carabalí
G
Omar Carabalí
G
6
Luis Pavez Munoz
D
Luis Pavez Munoz
D
33
Miguel Brizuela
88'
D
Miguel Brizuela
88'
D
21
D
3
Felipe Faúndez
D
Felipe Faúndez
D
11
J. Leiva
M
J. Leiva
M
8
F. Ogaz
M
F. Ogaz
M
7
Martín Sarrafiore
1 ⚽
1 👟
79'
M
Martín Sarrafiore
1 ⚽
1 👟
79'
M
10
Bryan Rabello
74'
M
Bryan Rabello
74'
M
24
F. González
1 ⚽
88'
M
F. González
1 ⚽
88'
M
9
Arnaldo Castillo
79'
F
Arnaldo Castillo
79'
F
Bench
20
Leandro Díaz
8'
D
Leandro Díaz
8'
D
14
Martín Maturana
17'
M
Martín Maturana
17'
M
32
T. Vecino
17'
F
T. Vecino
17'
F
1
G
24
J. O'Neill
89'
D
J. O'Neill
89'
D
13
Ignacio Fernandez
D
30
Martín González
D
23
Mateo Rivero
D
Mateo Rivero
D
21
Franco Pérez
45'
M
10
Agustín Amado
M
14
Federico Dafonte
62'
M
99
Gonzalo Reyna
62'
M
8
F. Bonfiglio
82'
F
F. Bonfiglio
82'
F
32
Y. González
72'
F
Y. González
72'
F
Bench
9
Alexander González
F
29
Andy López
M
26
Facundo Muñoa
51'
M
5
Francisco Barrios
34'
M
11
Gastón Ramírez
M
31
Juan Acosta
24'
D
12
Juan Ignacio González
G
16
L. Suhr
6'
F
L. Suhr
6'
F
20
Marcelo Hornos
M
3
Marco Mancebo
D
Best on the pitch
F. González
M · O'Higgins
9.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 28 pass
Martín Sarrafiore
M · O'Higgins
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 22 pass
J. Leiva
M · O'Higgins
7.70
· 63 pass
Omar Carabalí
G · O'Higgins
7.50
· 33 pass
F. Ogaz
M · O'Higgins
7.50
· 57 pass
Martín Maturana
M · O'Higgins
7.20
· 11 pass
O'Higgins — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Carabalí | G | 96 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Luis Pavez Munoz | D | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 43 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| Miguel Brizuela | D | 88 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 40 | 36% | — | — | — |
| D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 49% | 2 | — | — | |
| Felipe Faúndez | D | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Leiva | M | 96 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 63 | 60% | 6 | — | — |
| F. Ogaz | M | 96 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 57 | 52% | 3 | — | — |
| Martín Sarrafiore | M | 79 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Bryan Rabello | M | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 26% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. González | M | 88 | 9.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 28 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Arnaldo Castillo | F | 79 | 7.20 | — | — | 5 | 24 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Leandro Díaz | D | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Martín Maturana | M | 17 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 11% | — | — | — |
| T. Vecino | F | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Boston River — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| J. O'Neill | D | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | 1 |
| Ignacio Fernandez | D | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 43% | — | — | — |
| Martín González | D | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Rivero | D | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| Franco Pérez | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Agustín Amado | M | 96 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 48 | 40% | — | — | — |
| Federico Dafonte | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | — | 1 | — |
| Gonzalo Reyna | M | 62 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| F. Bonfiglio | F | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. González | F | 72 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Facundo Muñoa | M | 51 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Francisco Barrios | M | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Acosta | D | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Suhr | F | 6 | 4.90 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of O'Higgins vs Boston River?
The final score was O'Higgins 2–0 Boston River.
What did the model predict before O'Higgins vs Boston River?
The model assigned 60% probability to a O'Higgins win, 23% to a draw, and 15% to an Boston River win.