Liga MX
· Clausura - 12
March 23, 2026 00:00
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 38% win probability (draw 25%, CF Pachuca 36%). The final result was CF Pachuca 1–1 Toluca. In 3 previous meetings, CF Pachuca have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
2
0.71
Actual xG
0.56
48%
Possession
52%
9
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
36.16%
CF
25.75%
X ←
38.09%
Toluca
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
25.75%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.36
0.71
-0.65
1.48
0.56
-0.92
xG dominance was balanced (0.71 – 0.56).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
The final score was CF Pachuca 1–1 Toluca.
What did the model predict before CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
The model assigned 36% probability to a CF Pachuca win, 25% to a draw, and 38% to an Toluca win.