Liga MX · Clausura - 12 March 23, 2026 00:00

CF Pachuca

#11 · 12 pts

1 – 1

Final score

Toluca

#1 · 20 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 38% win probability (draw 25%, CF Pachuca 36%). The final result was CF Pachuca 1–1 Toluca. In 3 previous meetings, CF Pachuca have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Toluca.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

2

0.71

Actual xG

0.56

48%

Possession

52%

9

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

36.16%

CF

25.75%

X ←

38.09%

Toluca

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 25.75% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

CF

1.36

0.71

-0.65

Toluca

1.48

0.56

-0.92

xG dominance was balanced (0.71 – 0.56). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Toluca	10	20
2	Guadalajara Chivas	10	18
3	Club America	8	17
4	Club Queretaro	9	17
5	Atlas	10	17
6	Cruz Azul	10	16
7	Leon	9	14
8	Club Tijuana	9	14
9	Puebla	10	14
10	Monterrey	9	13
11	CF Pachuca	10	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	12
13	Atlante FC	10	11
14	Tigres UANL	10	10
15	Santos Laguna	10	10
16	Atletico San Luis	9	9
17	Necaxa	9	8
18	FC Juarez	9	3