Serie A
· Regular Season - 32
April 12, 2026 17:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Napoli, result Pareggio
G. Strefezza
(ast. N. Elphege)
1'
60'
(ast. R. Hojlund)
S. McTominay
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Napoli a 51% win probability (draw 27%, Parma 21%). The final result was Parma 1–1 Napoli. In 1 previous meetings, Parma have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Napoli.
Match statistics
2
Total shots
11
2
Shots on target
6
0.19
Actual xG
1.21
4
Saves
1
26%
Possession
74%
3
Corners
7
13
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽G. Strefezza
· ast. N. Elphege
1'
46'
S. Beukema
/
Juan Jesus
56'
Alisson Santos
/
F. Anguissa
N. Elphege
/ O. Sorensen
59'
60'
ast. R. Hojlund ·
S. McTominay⚽
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
/ N. Estevez
66'
66'
Giovane
/
R. Hojlund
A. Bernabe
/ C. Ordonez
67'
G. Strefezza
/ D. Mikolajewski
72'
78'
E. Elmas
/
K. De Bruyne
79'
M. Gutierrez
/
M. Politano
Alessandro Circati
83'
Pre-match prediction
21.66%
Parma
27.22%
X ←
51.12%
Napoli
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
27.22%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.66
0.19
-0.47
1.42
1.21
-0.21
Napoli dominated by xG (1.21 vs 0.19).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
31
Zion Suzuki
G
Zion Suzuki
G
5
D
37
D
39
Alessandro Circati
D
Alessandro Circati
D
14
E. Valeri
M
E. Valeri
M
16
Mandela Keita
M
Mandela Keita
M
41
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
66'
M
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
66'
M
10
A. Bernabe
67'
M
15
Enrico Delprato
M
Enrico Delprato
M
7
Gabriel Strefezza
1 ⚽
72'
F
Gabriel Strefezza
1 ⚽
72'
F
23
Nesta Elphege
1 👟
59'
F
Nesta Elphege
1 👟
59'
F
Bench
3
Abdoulaye Ndiaye
D
Abdoulaye Ndiaye
D
29
Franco Carboni
D
Franco Carboni
D
27
Sascha Britschgi
D
Sascha Britschgi
D
32
G
17
M. Olivera
D
M. Olivera
D
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
5
Juan Jesus
45'
D
Juan Jesus
45'
D
37
Leonardo Spinazzola
M
Leonardo Spinazzola
M
68
Stanislav Lobotka
M
Stanislav Lobotka
M
99
Frank Anguissa
56'
M
Frank Anguissa
56'
M
21
Matteo Politano
79'
M
Matteo Politano
79'
M
8
Scott McTominay
1 ⚽
F
Scott McTominay
1 ⚽
F
11
K. De Bruyne
78'
F
K. De Bruyne
78'
F
19
Rasmus Højlund
1 👟
66'
F
Rasmus Højlund
1 👟
66'
F
Bench
27
Alisson Santos
34'
F
Alisson Santos
34'
F
6
Billy Gilmour
M
Billy Gilmour
M
20
Eljif Elmas
12'
M
Eljif Elmas
12'
M
23
Giovane
24'
F
Giovane
24'
F
Best on the pitch
Stanislav Lobotka
M · Napoli
7.90
· 89 pass
D · Parma
7.60
· 24 pass
Gabriel Strefezza
F · Parma
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
D · Parma
7.30
· 31 pass
Scott McTominay
F · Napoli
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 45 pass
Leonardo Spinazzola
M · Napoli
7.20
· 65 pass
Parma — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Suzuki | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 21% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | 2 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — | |
| Alessandro Circati | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Valeri | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 4 | — | — |
| Mandela Keita | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Bernabe | M | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Enrico Delprato | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| Gabriel Strefezza | F | 72 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Nesta Elphege | F | 59 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
Napoli — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | — | — | — | |
| M. Olivera | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 118 | 110% | 5 | — | — |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 81 | 80% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Jesus | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 42% | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Spinazzola | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 65 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| Stanislav Lobotka | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 89 | 83% | 2 | — | — |
| Frank Anguissa | M | 56 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 46 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| Matteo Politano | M | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | — | — | — |
| Scott McTominay | F | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 45 | 38% | — | — | — |
| K. De Bruyne | F | 78 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Rasmus Højlund | F | 66 | 5.90 | — | 1 | — | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Alisson Santos | F | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Eljif Elmas | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Giovane | F | 24 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Parma vs Napoli?
The final score was Parma 1–1 Napoli.
What did the model predict before Parma vs Napoli?
The model assigned 21% probability to a Parma win, 27% to a draw, and 51% to an Napoli win.