✗Model wrong — prediction Napoli, result Draw
G. Strefezza
(ast. N. Elphege)
1'
60'
(ast. R. Hojlund)
S. McTominay
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Napoli a 51% win probability (draw 27%, Parma 21%). The final result was Parma 1–1 Napoli. In 1 previous meetings, Parma have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Napoli.
Match statistics
2
Total shots
11
2
Shots on target
6
0.19
Actual xG
1.21
4
Saves
1
26%
Possession
74%
3
Corners
7
13
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽G. Strefezza
· ast. N. Elphege
1'
46'
S. Beukema
/
Juan Jesus
56'
Alisson Santos
/
F. Anguissa
N. Elphege
/ O. Sorensen
59'
60'
ast. R. Hojlund ·
S. McTominay⚽
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
/ N. Estevez
66'
66'
Giovane
/
R. Hojlund
A. Bernabe
/ C. Ordonez
67'
G. Strefezza
/ D. Mikolajewski
72'
78'
E. Elmas
/
K. De Bruyne
79'
M. Gutierrez
/
M. Politano
Alessandro Circati
83'
Pre-match prediction
21.66%
Parma
27.22%
X ←
51.12%
Napoli
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
27.22%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.66
0.19
-0.47
1.42
1.21
-0.21
Napoli dominated by xG (1.21 vs 0.19).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
31
Z. Suzuki
G
Z. Suzuki
G
5
D
37
D
39
A. Circati
D
A. Circati
D
14
E. Valeri
M
E. Valeri
M
16
M. Keita
M
M. Keita
M
41
H. Nicolussi
66'
M
H. Nicolussi
66'
M
10
Adrián Bernabé
67'
M
Adrián Bernabé
67'
M
15
E. Del Prato
M
E. Del Prato
M
7
Gabriel Strefezza
1 ⚽
72'
F
Gabriel Strefezza
1 ⚽
72'
F
23
N. Elphege
1 👟
59'
F
N. Elphege
1 👟
59'
F
Bench
3
A. N'Diaye
D
A. N'Diaye
D
29
F. Carboni
D
F. Carboni
D
27
S. Britschgi
D
S. Britschgi
D
32
G
17
M. Olivera
D
M. Olivera
D
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
5
Juan Jesus
45'
D
Juan Jesus
45'
D
37
L. Spinazzola
M
L. Spinazzola
M
68
S. Lobotka
M
S. Lobotka
M
99
A. Zambo Anguissa
56'
M
A. Zambo Anguissa
56'
M
21
M. Politano
79'
M
M. Politano
79'
M
8
S. McTominay
1 ⚽
F
S. McTominay
1 ⚽
F
11
K. De Bruyne
78'
F
K. De Bruyne
78'
F
19
R. Højlund
1 👟
66'
F
R. Højlund
1 👟
66'
F
Bench
27
Alisson Santos
34'
F
Alisson Santos
34'
F
6
B. Gilmour
M
B. Gilmour
M
20
E. Elmas
12'
M
E. Elmas
12'
M
23
Giovane
24'
F
Giovane
24'
F
Best on the pitch
S. Lobotka
M · Napoli
7.90
· 89 pass
D · Parma
7.60
· 24 pass
Gabriel Strefezza
F · Parma
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
D · Parma
7.30
· 31 pass
S. McTominay
F · Napoli
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 45 pass
L. Spinazzola
M · Napoli
7.20
· 65 pass
Parma — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Suzuki | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 21% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | 2 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — | |
| A. Circati | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Valeri | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Keita | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Nicolussi | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Adrián Bernabé | M | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Del Prato | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| Gabriel Strefezza | F | 72 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Elphege | F | 59 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
Napoli — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | — | — | — | |
| M. Olivera | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 118 | 110% | 5 | — | — |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 81 | 80% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Jesus | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 42% | — | — | — |
| L. Spinazzola | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 65 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Lobotka | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 89 | 83% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Zambo Anguissa | M | 56 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 46 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Politano | M | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | — | — | — |
| S. McTominay | F | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 45 | 38% | — | — | — |
| K. De Bruyne | F | 78 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Højlund | F | 66 | 5.90 | — | 1 | — | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Alisson Santos | F | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| E. Elmas | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Giovane | F | 24 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Parma vs Napoli?
The final score was Parma 1–1 Napoli.
What did the model predict before Parma vs Napoli?
The model assigned 21% probability to a Parma win, 27% to a draw, and 51% to an Napoli win.