✗Model wrong — prediction Napoli, result Draw
G. Strefezza
(ast. N. Elphege)
1'
60'
(ast. R. Hojlund)
S. McTominay
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Napoli a 51% win probability (draw 27%, Parma 21%). The final result was Parma 1–1 Napoli. In 1 previous meetings, Parma have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Napoli.
Match statistics
2
Total shots
11
2
Shots on target
6
0.19
Actual xG
1.21
4
Saves
1
26%
Possession
74%
3
Corners
7
13
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽G. Strefezza
· ast. N. Elphege
1'
46'
S. Beukema
/
Juan Jesus
56'
Alisson Santos
/
F. Anguissa
N. Elphege
/ O. Sorensen
59'
60'
ast. R. Hojlund ·
S. McTominay⚽
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
/ N. Estevez
66'
66'
Giovane
/
R. Hojlund
A. Bernabe
/ C. Ordonez
67'
G. Strefezza
/ D. Mikolajewski
72'
78'
E. Elmas
/
K. De Bruyne
79'
M. Gutierrez
/
M. Politano
Alessandro Circati
83'
Pre-match prediction
21.66%
Parma
27.22%
X ←
51.12%
Napoli
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
27.22%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.66
0.19
-0.47
1.42
1.21
-0.21
Napoli dominated by xG (1.21 vs 0.19).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
31
Z. Suzuki
G
Z. Suzuki
G
5
D
37
D
39
A. Circati
D
A. Circati
D
14
E. Valeri
M
E. Valeri
M
16
M. Keita
M
M. Keita
M
41
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
66'
M
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
66'
M
10
Adrián Bernabé
67'
M
Adrián Bernabé
67'
M
15
E. Del Prato
M
E. Del Prato
M
7
Gabriel Strefezza
1 ⚽
72'
F
Gabriel Strefezza
1 ⚽
72'
F
23
N. Elphege
1 👟
59'
F
N. Elphege
1 👟
59'
F
Bench
3
A. N'Diaye
D
A. N'Diaye
D
29
F. Carboni
D
F. Carboni
D
27
S. Britschgi
D
S. Britschgi
D
32
G
17
Mathías Olivera
D
Mathías Olivera
D
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
Alessandro Buongiorno
D
5
Juan Jesus
45'
D
Juan Jesus
45'
D
37
Leonardo Spinazzola
M
Leonardo Spinazzola
M
68
Stanislav Lobotka
M
Stanislav Lobotka
M
99
A. Zambo Anguissa
56'
M
A. Zambo Anguissa
56'
M
21
Matteo Politano
79'
M
Matteo Politano
79'
M
8
S. McTominay
1 ⚽
F
S. McTominay
1 ⚽
F
11
Kevin De Bruyne
78'
F
Kevin De Bruyne
78'
F
19
Rasmus Højlund
1 👟
66'
F
Rasmus Højlund
1 👟
66'
F
Bench
27
Alisson Santos
34'
F
Alisson Santos
34'
F
6
Billy Gilmour
M
Billy Gilmour
M
20
Eljif Elmas
12'
M
Eljif Elmas
12'
M
23
Giovane
24'
F
Giovane
24'
F
Best on the pitch
Stanislav Lobotka
M · Napoli
7.90
· 89 pass
D · Parma
7.60
· 24 pass
Gabriel Strefezza
F · Parma
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
D · Parma
7.30
· 31 pass
S. McTominay
F · Napoli
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 45 pass
Leonardo Spinazzola
M · Napoli
7.20
· 65 pass
Parma — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Suzuki | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 21% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | 2 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — | |
| A. Circati | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Valeri | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Keita | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Adrián Bernabé | M | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Del Prato | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| Gabriel Strefezza | F | 72 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Elphege | F | 59 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
Napoli — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | — | — | — | |
| Mathías Olivera | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 118 | 110% | 5 | — | — |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 81 | 80% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Jesus | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 42% | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Spinazzola | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 65 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| Stanislav Lobotka | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 89 | 83% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Zambo Anguissa | M | 56 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 46 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| Matteo Politano | M | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | — | — | — |
| S. McTominay | F | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 45 | 38% | — | — | — |
| Kevin De Bruyne | F | 78 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Rasmus Højlund | F | 66 | 5.90 | — | 1 | — | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Alisson Santos | F | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Eljif Elmas | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Giovane | F | 24 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Parma vs Napoli?
The final score was Parma 1–1 Napoli.
What did the model predict before Parma vs Napoli?
The model assigned 21% probability to a Parma win, 27% to a draw, and 51% to an Napoli win.