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La Liga · Regular Season - 33 April 23, 2026 22:00
Rayo Vallecano
#10 · 44 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Espanyol
#14 · 42 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Rayo Vallecano
S. Camello (ast. I. Akhomach) 87'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rayo Vallecano a 67% win probability (draw 18%, Espanyol 13%). The final result was Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol. In 1 previous meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Espanyol.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
1.67
Actual xG
1.97
4
Saves
5
53%
Possession
47%
6
Corners
5
13
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
2'
P. Milla
19'
P. Lozano
A. Batalla
35'
46'
C. Pickel / P. Lozano ↕
P. Ciss
50'
↕ Pacha / I. Akhomach
58'
67'
R. Terrats / R. Fernandez Jaen ↕
74'
(missed pen.) K. Garcia⚽
75'
L. Cabrera
↕ Alemao / G. Gumbau
76'
↕ O. Valentin / U. Lopez
76'
78'
C. Riedel / F. Calero ↕
78'
C. Ngonge / T. Dolan ↕
↕ J. Vertrouwd / A. Mumin
81'
↕ P. Diaz / S. Camello
81'
83'
C. Ngonge
⚽S. Camello · ast. I. Akhomach
87'
90'+1
M. Rubio / P. Milla ↕
Pre-match prediction
67.48%
Rayo ←
18.66%
X
13.85%
Espanyol
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Rayo Vallecano) 67.48% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Rayo
2.30
1.67
-0.64
Espanyol
0.73
1.97
+1.24
xG dominance was balanced (1.67 – 1.97). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 36 91
2 Real Madrid Real Madrid 36 80
3 Villarreal Villarreal 36 69
4 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 36 66
5 Real Betis Real Betis 36 57
6 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 36 50
7 Getafe Getafe 36 48
8 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 36 45
9 Athletic Club Athletic Club 36 44
10 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 36 44
11 Valencia Valencia 36 43
12 Sevilla Sevilla 36 43
13 Osasuna Osasuna 36 42
14 Espanyol Espanyol 36 42
15 Girona Girona 36 40
16 Alaves Alaves 36 40
17 Elche Elche 36 39
18 Mallorca Mallorca 36 39
19 Levante Levante 36 39
20 Oviedo Oviedo 36 29
Lineups
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
1 Dani Cárdenas Dani Cárdenas G 8.50
3
D 7.20
33 Jozhua Vertrouwd Jozhua Vertrouwd 81' D 7.30
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss Pathé Ismaël Ciss D 7.70
2 A. Rațiu A. Rațiu D 8.30
23 Óscar Valentín Óscar Valentín 76' M 6.70
4 Pedro Díaz Pedro Díaz 81' M 6.90
22 Pacha Pacha 58' M 7.00
7 Isi Palazón Isi Palazón M 6.90
19 Jorge de Frutos Jorge de Frutos M 6.70
9 Alemão Alemão 76' F 6.20
Bench
13 Augusto Batalla Augusto Batalla G
14 Carlos Martín Carlos Martín F
15 Gerard Gumbau Gerard Gumbau 14' M 6.90
12
I. Akhomach 1 👟 32' F 7.20
10 Sergio Camello Sergio Camello 1 ⚽ 9' F 7.70
17 Unai López Unai López 14' M 6.90
Espanyol Espanyol 4-4-2
13
G 6.70
22 Carlos Romero Carlos Romero D 6.90
6 Leandro Cabrera Leandro Cabrera D 6.50
5
F. Calero 78' D 7.00
23 O. El Hilali O. El Hilali D 6.60
11 Pere Milla Pere Milla 89' M 6.30
8 Edu Expósito Edu Expósito M 7.00
10 Pol Lozano Pol Lozano 45' M 6.20
24
T. Dolan 78' M 6.70
9 Roberto Fernández Roberto Fernández 67' F 6.70
19 Kike García Kike García F 5.90
Bench
38 Clemens Riedel Clemens Riedel 12' D 6.50
16 C. Ngonge C. Ngonge 12' F 6.70
14 Ramón Terrats Ramón Terrats 23' M 6.50
2 Rubén Sánchez Rubén Sánchez D
Best on the pitch
Dani Cárdenas
Dani Cárdenas
G · Rayo
8.50
· 40 pass
A. Rațiu
A. Rațiu
D · Rayo
8.30
2 shots · 35 pass
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
D · Rayo
7.70
2 shots · 42 pass
Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello
F · Rayo
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 4 pass
Jozhua Vertrouwd
Jozhua Vertrouwd
D · Rayo
7.30
· 35 pass
D · Rayo
7.20
· 36 pass
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Dani Cárdenas G 90 8.50 — — — 40 24% — — —
D 90 7.20 — — — 36 29% 1 — —
Jozhua Vertrouwd D 81 7.30 — — — 35 30% — — —
Pathé Ismaël Ciss D 90 7.70 — — 2 42 37% 1 1 —
A. Rațiu D 90 8.30 — — 2 35 28% 2 — —
Óscar Valentín M 76 6.70 — — — 32 26% 2 — —
Pedro Díaz M 81 6.90 — — 1 32 26% 1 — —
Pacha M 58 7.00 — — — 14 10% 2 — —
Isi Palazón M 90 6.90 — — 6 26 22% — — —
Jorge de Frutos M 90 6.70 — — — 13 12% 1 — —
Alemão F 76 6.20 — — 3 12 9% — — —
Gerard Gumbau M 14 6.90 — — — — — 1 — —
I. Akhomach F 32 7.20 — 1 — 6 6% — — —
Sergio Camello F 9 7.70 1 — 1 4 3% — — —
Unai López M 14 6.90 — — — 4 3% 2 — —
Espanyol Espanyol — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.70 — — — 23 13% — — —
Carlos Romero D 90 6.90 — — 1 25 16% 4 — —
Leandro Cabrera D 90 6.50 — — — 23 19% — 1 —
F. Calero D 78 7.00 — — — 29 23% — — —
O. El Hilali D 90 6.60 — — — 32 24% 3 — —
Pere Milla M 89 6.30 — — 1 18 11% 4 1 —
Edu Expósito M 90 7.00 — — 2 39 26% — — —
Pol Lozano M 45 6.20 — — — 17 11% — 1 —
T. Dolan M 78 6.70 — — — 19 16% 1 — —
Roberto Fernández F 67 6.70 — — 1 13 9% 2 — —
Kike García F 90 5.90 — — 2 19 11% 1 — —
Clemens Riedel D 12 6.50 — — — 6 5% — — —
C. Ngonge F 12 6.70 — — 2 4 4% — 1 —
Ramón Terrats M 23 6.50 — — 1 5 5% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
The final score was Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol.
What did the model predict before Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
The model assigned 67% probability to a Rayo Vallecano win, 18% to a draw, and 13% to an Espanyol win.