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La Liga · Regular Season - 33 April 23, 2026 20:00 Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
#16 · 4 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Espanyol
#7 · 7 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Rayo Vallecano
S. Camello (ast. I. Akhomach) 87'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rayo Vallecano a 67% win probability (draw 18%, Espanyol 13%). The final result was Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol. In 1 previous meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Espanyol.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
1.67
Actual xG
1.97
4
Saves
5
53%
Possession
47%
6
Corners
5
13
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
2'
P. Milla
19'
P. Lozano
A. Batalla
35'
46'
C. Pickel / P. Lozano ↕
P. Ciss
50'
↕ Pacha / I. Akhomach
58'
67'
R. Terrats / R. Fernandez Jaen ↕
74'
(missed pen.) K. Garcia⚽
75'
L. Cabrera
↕ Alemao / G. Gumbau
76'
↕ O. Valentin / U. Lopez
76'
78'
C. Riedel / F. Calero ↕
78'
C. Ngonge / T. Dolan ↕
↕ J. Vertrouwd / A. Mumin
81'
↕ P. Diaz / S. Camello
81'
83'
C. Ngonge
⚽S. Camello · ast. I. Akhomach
87'
90'+1
M. Rubio / P. Milla ↕
Pre-match prediction
67.48%
Rayo ←
18.66%
X
13.85%
Espanyol
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Rayo Vallecano) 67.48% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Rayo
2.30
1.67
-0.64
Espanyol
0.73
1.97
+1.24
xG dominance was balanced (1.67 – 1.97). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 5 15
2 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5 12
3 Alaves Alaves 5 10
4 Sevilla Sevilla 5 10
5 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 5 9
6 Real Betis Real Betis 4 9
7 Espanyol Espanyol 5 7
8 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4 7
9 Athletic Club Athletic Club 5 7
10 Racing Santander Racing Santander 5 7
11 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 5 7
12 Osasuna Osasuna 5 7
13 Levante Levante 5 5
14 Getafe Getafe 5 5
15 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 6 4
16 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 5 4
17 Malaga Malaga 5 3
18 Villarreal Villarreal 4 2
19 Elche Elche 5 2
20 Valencia Valencia 5 1
Lineups
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
1 Dani Cárdenas Dani Cárdenas G 8.50
3
D 7.20
33 Jozhua Vertrouwd Jozhua Vertrouwd 81' D 7.30
6 P. Ciss P. Ciss D 7.70
2 A. Rațiu A. Rațiu D 8.30
23 Óscar Valentín Óscar Valentín 76' M 6.70
4 Pedro Díaz Pedro Díaz 81' M 6.90
22 A. Espino A. Espino 58' M 7.00
7 Isi Palazón Isi Palazón M 6.90
19 Jorge de Frutos Jorge de Frutos M 6.70
9 Alemão Alemão 76' F 6.20
Bench
13 Augusto Batalla Augusto Batalla G
14 Carlos Martín Carlos Martín F
15 Gerard Gumbau Gerard Gumbau 14' M 6.90
12 Ilias Akhomach Ilias Akhomach 1 👟 32' F 7.20
10 Sergio Camello Sergio Camello 1 ⚽ 9' F 7.70
17 Unai López Unai López 14' M 6.90
Espanyol Espanyol 4-4-2
13
G 6.70
22 Carlos Romero Carlos Romero D 6.90
6 L. Cabrera L. Cabrera D 6.50
5 Fernando Calero Fernando Calero 78' D 7.00
23 O. El Hilali O. El Hilali D 6.60
11 Pere Milla Pere Milla 89' M 6.30
8 Edu Expósito Edu Expósito M 7.00
10 Pol Lozano Pol Lozano 45' M 6.20
24 T. Dolan T. Dolan 78' M 6.70
9 Roberto Fernández Roberto Fernández 67' F 6.70
19 Kike García Kike García F 5.90
Bench
16 C. Ngonge C. Ngonge 12' F 6.70
38 C. Riedel C. Riedel 12' D 6.50
14 Ramón Terrats Ramón Terrats 23' M 6.50
2 Rubén Sánchez Rubén Sánchez D
Best on the pitch
Dani Cárdenas
Dani Cárdenas
G · Rayo
8.50
· 40 pass
A. Rațiu
A. Rațiu
D · Rayo
8.30
2 shots · 35 pass
P. Ciss
P. Ciss
D · Rayo
7.70
2 shots · 42 pass
Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello
F · Rayo
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 4 pass
Jozhua Vertrouwd
Jozhua Vertrouwd
D · Rayo
7.30
· 35 pass
D · Rayo
7.20
· 36 pass
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Dani Cárdenas G 90 8.50 — — — 40 24% — — —
D 90 7.20 — — — 36 29% 1 — —
Jozhua Vertrouwd D 81 7.30 — — — 35 30% — — —
P. Ciss D 90 7.70 — — 2 42 37% 1 1 —
A. Rațiu D 90 8.30 — — 2 35 28% 2 — —
Óscar Valentín M 76 6.70 — — — 32 26% 2 — —
Pedro Díaz M 81 6.90 — — 1 32 26% 1 — —
A. Espino M 58 7.00 — — — 14 10% 2 — —
Isi Palazón M 90 6.90 — — 6 26 22% — — —
Jorge de Frutos M 90 6.70 — — — 13 12% 1 — —
Alemão F 76 6.20 — — 3 12 9% — — —
Gerard Gumbau M 14 6.90 — — — — — 1 — —
Ilias Akhomach F 32 7.20 — 1 — 6 6% — — —
Sergio Camello F 9 7.70 1 — 1 4 3% — — —
Unai López M 14 6.90 — — — 4 3% 2 — —
Espanyol Espanyol — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.70 — — — 23 13% — — —
Carlos Romero D 90 6.90 — — 1 25 16% 4 — —
L. Cabrera D 90 6.50 — — — 23 19% — 1 —
Fernando Calero D 78 7.00 — — — 29 23% — — —
O. El Hilali D 90 6.60 — — — 32 24% 3 — —
Pere Milla M 89 6.30 — — 1 18 11% 4 1 —
Edu Expósito M 90 7.00 — — 2 39 26% — — —
Pol Lozano M 45 6.20 — — — 17 11% — 1 —
T. Dolan M 78 6.70 — — — 19 16% 1 — —
Roberto Fernández F 67 6.70 — — 1 13 9% 2 — —
Kike García F 90 5.90 — — 2 19 11% 1 — —
C. Ngonge F 12 6.70 — — 2 4 4% — 1 —
C. Riedel D 12 6.50 — — — 6 5% — — —
Ramón Terrats M 23 6.50 — — 1 5 5% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
The final score was Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol.
What did the model predict before Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
The model assigned 67% probability to a Rayo Vallecano win, 18% to a draw, and 13% to an Espanyol win.