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La Liga · Regular Season - 33 April 23, 2026 20:00 Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
#8 · 50 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Espanyol
#11 · 46 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Rayo Vallecano
S. Camello (ast. I. Akhomach) 87'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rayo Vallecano a 67% win probability (draw 18%, Espanyol 13%). The final result was Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol. In 1 previous meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Espanyol.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
1.67
Actual xG
1.97
4
Saves
5
53%
Possession
47%
6
Corners
5
13
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
2'
P. Milla
19'
P. Lozano
A. Batalla
35'
46'
C. Pickel / P. Lozano ↕
P. Ciss
50'
↕ Pacha / I. Akhomach
58'
67'
R. Terrats / R. Fernandez Jaen ↕
74'
(missed pen.) K. Garcia⚽
75'
L. Cabrera
↕ Alemao / G. Gumbau
76'
↕ O. Valentin / U. Lopez
76'
78'
C. Riedel / F. Calero ↕
78'
C. Ngonge / T. Dolan ↕
↕ J. Vertrouwd / A. Mumin
81'
↕ P. Diaz / S. Camello
81'
83'
C. Ngonge
⚽S. Camello · ast. I. Akhomach
87'
90'+1
M. Rubio / P. Milla ↕
Pre-match prediction
67.48%
Rayo ←
18.66%
X
13.85%
Espanyol
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Rayo Vallecano) 67.48% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Rayo
2.30
1.67
-0.64
Espanyol
0.73
1.97
+1.24
xG dominance was balanced (1.67 – 1.97). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 38 94
2 Real Madrid Real Madrid 38 86
3 Villarreal Villarreal 38 72
4 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 38 69
5 Real Betis Real Betis 38 60
6 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 38 54
7 Getafe Getafe 38 51
8 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 38 50
9 Valencia Valencia 38 49
10 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 38 46
11 Espanyol Espanyol 38 46
12 Athletic Club Athletic Club 38 45
13 Sevilla Sevilla 38 43
14 Alaves Alaves 38 43
15 Elche Elche 38 43
16 Levante Levante 38 42
17 Osasuna Osasuna 38 42
18 Mallorca Mallorca 38 42
19 Girona Girona 38 41
20 Oviedo Oviedo 38 29
Lineups
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
1 Dani Cárdenas Dani Cárdenas G 8.50
3
D 7.20
33 Jozhua Vertrouwd Jozhua Vertrouwd 81' D 7.30
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss Pathé Ismaël Ciss D 7.70
2 Andrei Rațiu Andrei Rațiu D 8.30
23 Óscar Valentín Óscar Valentín 76' M 6.70
4 Pedro Díaz Pedro Díaz 81' M 6.90
22 Pacha Pacha 58' M 7.00
7 Isi Palazón Isi Palazón M 6.90
19 Jorge de Frutos Jorge de Frutos M 6.70
9 Alemão Alemão 76' F 6.20
Bench
13 Augusto Batalla Augusto Batalla G
14 Carlos Martín Carlos Martín F
15 Gerard Gumbau Gerard Gumbau 14' M 6.90
12 Ilias Akhomach Ilias Akhomach 1 👟 32' F 7.20
10 Sergio Camello Sergio Camello 1 ⚽ 9' F 7.70
17 Unai López Unai López 14' M 6.90
Espanyol Espanyol 4-4-2
13
G 6.70
22 Carlos Romero Carlos Romero D 6.90
6 Leandro Cabrera Leandro Cabrera D 6.50
5 Fernando Calero Fernando Calero 78' D 7.00
23 O. El Hilali O. El Hilali D 6.60
11 Pere Milla Pere Milla 89' M 6.30
8 Edu Expósito Edu Expósito M 7.00
10 Pol Lozano Pol Lozano 45' M 6.20
24 Tyrhys Dolan Tyrhys Dolan 78' M 6.70
9 Roberto Fernández Roberto Fernández 67' F 6.70
19 Kike García Kike García F 5.90
Bench
38 Clemens Riedel Clemens Riedel 12' D 6.50
16 C. Ngonge C. Ngonge 12' F 6.70
14 Ramón Terrats Ramón Terrats 23' M 6.50
2 Rubén Sánchez Rubén Sánchez D
Best on the pitch
Dani Cárdenas
Dani Cárdenas
G · Rayo
8.50
· 40 pass
Andrei Rațiu
Andrei Rațiu
D · Rayo
8.30
2 shots · 35 pass
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
D · Rayo
7.70
2 shots · 42 pass
Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello
F · Rayo
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 4 pass
Jozhua Vertrouwd
Jozhua Vertrouwd
D · Rayo
7.30
· 35 pass
D · Rayo
7.20
· 36 pass
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Dani Cárdenas G 90 8.50 — — — 40 24% — — —
D 90 7.20 — — — 36 29% 1 — —
Jozhua Vertrouwd D 81 7.30 — — — 35 30% — — —
Pathé Ismaël Ciss D 90 7.70 — — 2 42 37% 1 1 —
Andrei Rațiu D 90 8.30 — — 2 35 28% 2 — —
Óscar Valentín M 76 6.70 — — — 32 26% 2 — —
Pedro Díaz M 81 6.90 — — 1 32 26% 1 — —
Pacha M 58 7.00 — — — 14 10% 2 — —
Isi Palazón M 90 6.90 — — 6 26 22% — — —
Jorge de Frutos M 90 6.70 — — — 13 12% 1 — —
Alemão F 76 6.20 — — 3 12 9% — — —
Gerard Gumbau M 14 6.90 — — — — — 1 — —
Ilias Akhomach F 32 7.20 — 1 — 6 6% — — —
Sergio Camello F 9 7.70 1 — 1 4 3% — — —
Unai López M 14 6.90 — — — 4 3% 2 — —
Espanyol Espanyol — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.70 — — — 23 13% — — —
Carlos Romero D 90 6.90 — — 1 25 16% 4 — —
Leandro Cabrera D 90 6.50 — — — 23 19% — 1 —
Fernando Calero D 78 7.00 — — — 29 23% — — —
O. El Hilali D 90 6.60 — — — 32 24% 3 — —
Pere Milla M 89 6.30 — — 1 18 11% 4 1 —
Edu Expósito M 90 7.00 — — 2 39 26% — — —
Pol Lozano M 45 6.20 — — — 17 11% — 1 —
Tyrhys Dolan M 78 6.70 — — — 19 16% 1 — —
Roberto Fernández F 67 6.70 — — 1 13 9% 2 — —
Kike García F 90 5.90 — — 2 19 11% 1 — —
Clemens Riedel D 12 6.50 — — — 6 5% — — —
C. Ngonge F 12 6.70 — — 2 4 4% — 1 —
Ramón Terrats M 23 6.50 — — 1 5 5% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
The final score was Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol.
What did the model predict before Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?
The model assigned 67% probability to a Rayo Vallecano win, 18% to a draw, and 13% to an Espanyol win.