La Liga · Regular Season - 29 March 22, 2026 22:00

Real Madrid

#2 · 80 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Atletico Madrid

#4 · 66 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Real Madrid

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 58% win probability (draw 21%, Atletico Madrid 20%). The final result was Real Madrid 3–2 Atletico Madrid. In 2 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atletico Madrid.

Match statistics

10

Shots on target

7

2.42

Actual xG

1.00

53%

Possession

47%

4

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

58.32%

Real ←

21.25%

X

20.43%

Atletico

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid) 58.32% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Real

2.04

2.42

+0.38

Atletico

1.10

1.00

-0.1

Real Madrid dominated by xG (2.42 vs 1.00). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Barcelona	36	91
2	Real Madrid	36	80
3	Villarreal	36	69
4	Atletico Madrid	36	66
5	Real Betis	36	57
6	Celta Vigo	36	50
7	Getafe	36	48
8	Real Sociedad	36	45
9	Athletic Club	36	44
10	Rayo Vallecano	36	44
11	Valencia	36	43
12	Sevilla	36	43
13	Osasuna	36	42
14	Espanyol	36	42
15	Girona	36	40
16	Alaves	36	40
17	Elche	36	39
18	Mallorca	36	39
19	Levante	36	39
20	Oviedo	36	29