La Liga · Regular Season - 29 March 22, 2026 21:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Real Madrid

#2 · 12 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Atletico Madrid

#8 · 7 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Real Madrid

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 58% win probability (draw 21%, Atletico Madrid 20%). The final result was Real Madrid 3–2 Atletico Madrid. In 2 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atletico Madrid.

Match statistics

10

Shots on target

7

2.42

Actual xG

1.00

53%

Possession

47%

4

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

58.32%

Real ←

21.25%

X

20.43%

Atletico

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid) 58.32% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Real

2.04

2.42

+0.38

Atletico

1.10

1.00

-0.1

Real Madrid dominated by xG (2.42 vs 1.00). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Barcelona	5	15
2	Real Madrid	5	12
3	Alaves	5	10
4	Sevilla	5	10
5	Deportivo La Coruna	5	9
6	Real Betis	4	9
7	Espanyol	5	7
8	Atletico Madrid	4	7
9	Athletic Club	5	7
10	Racing Santander	5	7
11	Real Sociedad	5	7
12	Osasuna	5	7
13	Levante	5	5
14	Getafe	5	5
15	Celta Vigo	6	4
16	Rayo Vallecano	5	4
17	Malaga	5	3
18	Villarreal	4	2
19	Elche	5	2
20	Valencia	5	1