La Liga · Regular Season - 29 March 22, 2026 21:00 Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid

Real Madrid

#3 · 24 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Atletico Madrid

#2 · 25 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Real Madrid

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 58% win probability (draw 21%, Atletico Madrid 20%). The final result was Real Madrid 3–2 Atletico Madrid. In 3 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Atletico Madrid.

Match statistics

10

Shots on target

7

2.42

Actual xG

1.00

53%

Possession

47%

4

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

58.32%

Real ←

21.25%

X

20.43%

Atletico

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid) 58.32% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Real

2.04

2.42

+0.38

Atletico

1.10

1.00

-0.1

Real Madrid dominated by xG (2.42 vs 1.00). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	25
3	Real Madrid	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	19
6	Sevilla	10	17
7	Alaves	10	12
8	Athletic Club	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	12
10	Villarreal	10	12
11	Deportivo La Coruna	10	11
12	Osasuna	10	11
13	Racing Santander	10	11
14	Levante	10	10
15	Elche	10	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	9
17	Getafe	10	9
18	Espanyol	10	8
19	Valencia	10	6
20	Malaga	10	5