← Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores · Group Stage - 4 May 06, 2026 00:00
Rosario Central
#1 · 10 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Libertad Asuncion
#4 · 0 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Rosario Central
Ignacio Ovando 57'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rosario Central a 63% win probability (draw 19%, Libertad Asuncion 16%). The final result was Rosario Central 1–0 Libertad Asuncion. In 1 previous meetings, Rosario Central have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Libertad Asuncion.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
8
7
Shots on target
3
2.52
Actual xG
0.66
3
Saves
6
51%
Possession
49%
5
Corners
6
22
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
18'
Gustavo Aguilar
Agustín Sández
33'
35'
Robert Rojas
40'
⚽Ángel Di María (missed pen.)
43'
↕ Jaminton Campaz / Enzo Copetti
46'
46'
Rodrigo Villalba / Iván Franco ↕
⚽Ignacio Ovando
57'
Gastón Ávila
64'
66'
Federico Carrizo
↕ Agustín Sández / Alexis Soto
72'
↕ Alejo Véliz / Federico Navarro
73'
76'
Matías Rojas / Lucas Sanabria ↕
80'
Amin Molinas / Federico Carrizo ↕
80'
Jorge Recalde / Gustavo Aguilar ↕
↕ Gastón Ávila / Carlos Quintana
81'
↕ Enzo Giménez / Elías Verón
86'
90'+1
Jorge Recalde
90'
Estiven Villalba / Iván Ramírez ↕
Pre-match prediction
63.27%
Rosario ←
19.93%
X
16.8%
Libertad
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Rosario Central) 63.27% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Rosario
1.97
2.52
+0.55
Libertad
0.99
0.66
-0.33
Rosario Central dominated by xG (2.52 vs 0.66). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 4 7
1 U. Catolica U. Catolica 4 7
1 Mirassol Mirassol 4 9
1 Flamengo Flamengo 3 7
1 Corinthians Corinthians 4 10
1 Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 4 10
1 Rosario Central Rosario Central 4 10
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4 8
2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 4 7
2 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 4 7
2 Platense Platense 4 7
2 Bolívar Bolívar 4 5
2 Lanus Lanus 4 6
2 Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 4 7
2 Coquimbo Unido Coquimbo Unido 4 7
2 Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 4 6
3 UCV UCV 4 6
3 Penarol Penarol 4 2
3 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 4 6
3 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 4 6
3 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3 4
3 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 4 3
3 Universitario Universitario 4 4
3 LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 4 6
4 Cusco Cusco 4 1
4 Always Ready Always Ready 4 3
4 Club Nacional Club Nacional 4 4
4 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 4 3
4 Fluminense Fluminense 4 2
4 Junior Junior 4 1
4 Santa Fe Santa Fe 4 2
4 Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 4 0
Lineups
Rosario Central Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
23
G 7.20
3 Agustín Sández Agustín Sández 72' D 6.60
13 Gastón Ávila Gastón Ávila 81' D 7.30
46 Ignacio Ovando Ignacio Ovando 1 ⚽ D 7.70
32 Emanuel Coronel Emanuel Coronel D 7.70
20 Vicente Pizarro Vicente Pizarro M 6.90
28 Pol Fernández Pol Fernández M 7.70
8 J. Campaz J. Campaz 45' M 6.60
11 Á. Di María Á. Di María M 7.30
16 Enzo Giménez Enzo Giménez 86' M 7.00
9 A. Véliz A. Véliz 73' F 7.30
Bench
33 Alexis Soto Alexis Soto 24' D 6.90
22 E. Copetti E. Copetti 51' F 6.90
39 Fabricio Oviedo Fabricio Oviedo F
15 Facundo Mallo Facundo Mallo D
31 Federico Navarro Federico Navarro 23' M 6.90
35
L. Ramos D
10 Santiago Segovia Santiago Segovia M
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 4-4-2
12 Rodrigo Morínigo Rodrigo Morínigo G 8.60
14 A. Fretes A. Fretes D 7.30
5 Diego Viera Diego Viera D 6.20
3
Robert Rojas D 6.20
2 Iván Ramírez Iván Ramírez D 7.30
8 F. Carrizo F. Carrizo 80' M 7.00
6 Álvaro Campuzano Álvaro Campuzano M 6.70
21 Lucas Sanabria Lucas Sanabria 76' M 6.70
18
I. Franco 45' M 6.50
10 L. Melgarejo L. Melgarejo F 6.30
11 Gustavo Aguilar Gustavo Aguilar 80' F 6.00
Bench
27 Amin Molinas Amin Molinas 16' M 6.60
34 Estiven Villalba Estiven Villalba 6' D
19 Jorge Recalde Jorge Recalde 16' M 6.30
7 Matías Rojas Matías Rojas 20' M 6.60
4 N. Giménez N. Giménez D
23 Pedro Villalba Pedro Villalba M
24
R. Villalba 51' D 6.30
Best on the pitch
Rodrigo Morínigo
Rodrigo Morínigo
G · Libertad
8.60
· 29 pass
Ignacio Ovando
Ignacio Ovando
D · Rosario
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 29 pass
Emanuel Coronel
Emanuel Coronel
D · Rosario
7.70
· 37 pass
Pol Fernández
Pol Fernández
M · Rosario
7.70
· 54 pass
Iván Ramírez
Iván Ramírez
D · Libertad
7.30
2 shots · 38 pass
A. Fretes
A. Fretes
D · Libertad
7.30
2 shots · 29 pass
Rosario Central Rosario Central — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 7.20 — — — 13 10% — — —
Agustín Sández D 72 6.60 — — 1 29 26% — 1 —
Gastón Ávila D 81 7.30 — — 1 46 39% 1 1 —
Ignacio Ovando D 96 7.70 1 — 1 29 27% 2 — —
Emanuel Coronel D 96 7.70 — — — 37 35% 3 — —
Vicente Pizarro M 96 6.90 — — 1 41 38% 2 — —
Pol Fernández M 96 7.70 — — — 54 51% 4 — —
J. Campaz M 45 6.60 — — 2 19 12% 2 — —
Á. Di María M 96 7.30 — — 2 31 25% 1 — —
Enzo Giménez M 86 7.00 — — — 27 25% 4 — —
A. Véliz F 73 7.30 — — 3 4 4% — — —
Alexis Soto D 24 6.90 — — — 6 6% 1 — —
E. Copetti F 51 6.90 — — 2 10 5% 1 — —
Federico Navarro M 23 6.90 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Rodrigo Morínigo G 96 8.60 — — — 29 16% — — —
A. Fretes D 96 7.30 — — 2 29 24% 8 — —
Diego Viera D 96 6.20 — — — 25 23% — — —
Robert Rojas D 96 6.20 — — — 24 19% — 1 —
Iván Ramírez D 90 7.30 — — 2 38 31% 3 — —
F. Carrizo M 80 7.00 — — — 32 27% 1 1 —
Álvaro Campuzano M 96 6.70 — — — 51 47% 3 — —
Lucas Sanabria M 76 6.70 — — — 34 28% — — —
I. Franco M 45 6.50 — — — 11 9% 2 — —
L. Melgarejo F 96 6.30 — — 2 12 7% 2 — —
Gustavo Aguilar F 80 6.00 — — — 13 8% 1 1 —
Amin Molinas M 16 6.60 — — 1 10 9% — — —
Estiven Villalba D 6 — — — — 3 2% — — —
Jorge Recalde M 16 6.30 — — 1 12 11% — 1 —
Matías Rojas M 20 6.60 — — — 12 10% — — —
R. Villalba D 51 6.30 — — — 16 14% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?
The final score was Rosario Central 1–0 Libertad Asuncion.
What did the model predict before Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?
The model assigned 63% probability to a Rosario Central win, 19% to a draw, and 16% to an Libertad Asuncion win.