Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 4
May 06, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction Rosario Central
Ignacio Ovando
57'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rosario Central a 63% win probability (draw 19%, Libertad Asuncion 16%). The final result was Rosario Central 1–0 Libertad Asuncion. In 1 previous meetings, Rosario Central have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Libertad Asuncion.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
8
7
Shots on target
3
2.52
Actual xG
0.66
3
Saves
6
51%
Possession
49%
5
Corners
6
22
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
18'
Gustavo Aguilar
Agustín Sández
33'
35'
Robert Rojas
40'
⚽Ángel Di María
(missed pen.)
43'
Jaminton Campaz
/ Enzo Copetti
46'
46'
Rodrigo Villalba
/
Iván Franco
⚽Ignacio Ovando
57'
Gastón Ávila
64'
66'
Federico Carrizo
Agustín Sández
/ Alexis Soto
72'
Alejo Véliz
/ Federico Navarro
73'
76'
Matías Rojas
/
Lucas Sanabria
80'
Amin Molinas
/
Federico Carrizo
80'
Jorge Recalde
/
Gustavo Aguilar
Gastón Ávila
/ Carlos Quintana
81'
Enzo Giménez
/ Elías Verón
86'
90'+1
Jorge Recalde
90'
Estiven Villalba
/
Iván Ramírez
Pre-match prediction
63.27%
Rosario ←
19.93%
X
16.8%
Libertad
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Rosario Central)
63.27%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.97
2.52
+0.55
0.99
0.66
-0.33
Rosario Central dominated by xG (2.52 vs 0.66).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
G
3
A. Sandez
72'
D
A. Sandez
72'
D
13
G. Ávila
81'
D
G. Ávila
81'
D
46
Ignacio Ovando
1 ⚽
D
Ignacio Ovando
1 ⚽
D
32
E. Coronel
D
E. Coronel
D
20
V. Pizarro
M
V. Pizarro
M
28
G. Fernández
M
G. Fernández
M
8
J. Campaz
45'
M
J. Campaz
45'
M
11
Á. Di María
M
Á. Di María
M
16
E. Giménez
86'
M
E. Giménez
86'
M
9
A. Véliz
73'
F
A. Véliz
73'
F
Bench
33
A. Soto
24'
D
A. Soto
24'
D
22
E. Copetti
51'
F
E. Copetti
51'
F
39
Fabricio Oviedo
F
Fabricio Oviedo
F
15
F. Mallo
D
F. Mallo
D
31
F. Navarro
23'
M
F. Navarro
23'
M
35
Lucas Ramos
D
Lucas Ramos
D
10
Santiago Segovia
M
Santiago Segovia
M
12
Rodrigo Morínigo
G
Rodrigo Morínigo
G
14
A. Fretes
D
A. Fretes
D
5
Diego Viera
D
Diego Viera
D
3
R. Rojas
D
R. Rojas
D
2
I. Ramírez
D
I. Ramírez
D
8
F. Carrizo
80'
M
F. Carrizo
80'
M
6
Á. Campuzano
M
Á. Campuzano
M
21
Lucas Sanabria
76'
M
Lucas Sanabria
76'
M
18
Iván Franco
45'
M
Iván Franco
45'
M
10
L. Melgarejo
F
L. Melgarejo
F
11
G. Aguilar
80'
F
G. Aguilar
80'
F
Bench
27
A. Molinas
16'
M
A. Molinas
16'
M
34
Estiven Villalba
6'
D
Estiven Villalba
6'
D
19
J. Recalde
16'
M
J. Recalde
16'
M
7
Matías Rojas
20'
M
Matías Rojas
20'
M
4
N. Giménez
D
N. Giménez
D
23
Pedro Villalba
M
Pedro Villalba
M
24
Rodrigo Villalba
51'
D
Rodrigo Villalba
51'
D
Best on the pitch
Rodrigo Morínigo
G · Libertad
8.60
· 29 pass
Ignacio Ovando
D · Rosario
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 29 pass
E. Coronel
D · Rosario
7.70
· 37 pass
G. Fernández
M · Rosario
7.70
· 54 pass
I. Ramírez
D · Libertad
7.30
2 shots
· 38 pass
A. Fretes
D · Libertad
7.30
2 shots
· 29 pass
Rosario Central — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | — | — | — | |
| A. Sandez | D | 72 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 26% | — | 1 | — |
| G. Ávila | D | 81 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ignacio Ovando | D | 96 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 29 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Coronel | D | 96 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 37 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| V. Pizarro | M | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Fernández | M | 96 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 54 | 51% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Campaz | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Á. Di María | M | 96 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Giménez | M | 86 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Véliz | F | 73 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| A. Soto | D | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Copetti | F | 51 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Navarro | M | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
Libertad Asuncion — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Morínigo | G | 96 | 8.60 | — | — | — | 29 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Fretes | D | 96 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 24% | 8 | — | — |
| Diego Viera | D | 96 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| R. Rojas | D | 96 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| I. Ramírez | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| F. Carrizo | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 32 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Á. Campuzano | M | 96 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 51 | 47% | 3 | — | — |
| Lucas Sanabria | M | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Iván Franco | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Melgarejo | F | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Aguilar | F | 80 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 13 | 8% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Molinas | M | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Estiven Villalba | D | 6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. Recalde | M | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Matías Rojas | M | 20 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Villalba | D | 51 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?
The final score was Rosario Central 1–0 Libertad Asuncion.
What did the model predict before Rosario Central vs Libertad Asuncion?
The model assigned 63% probability to a Rosario Central win, 19% to a draw, and 16% to an Libertad Asuncion win.