← Bundesliga
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 28 April 04, 2026 17:30
SC Freiburg
#7 · 44 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Bayern München
#1 · 86 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
J. Manzambi (ast. M. Eggestein) 46'
L. Holer 71'
81' (ast. L. Karl) T. Bischof
90' (ast. M. Olise) T. Bischof
90' (ast. A. Davies) L. Karl

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 67% win probability (draw 14%, SC Freiburg 18%). The final result was SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern München. In 1 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bayern München.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
14
4
Shots on target
9
1.82
Actual xG
2.80
6
Saves
2
30%
Possession
70%
5
Corners
8
23
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Christian Günter
-5'
25'
Jonathan Tah
Matthias Ginter
29'
⚽J. Manzambi · ast. M. Eggestein
46'
56'
K. Laimer / J. Tah ↕
56'
M. Olise / R. Guerreiro ↕
56'
A. Pavlovic / L. Goretzka ↕
↕ C. Gunter / L. Kubler
65'
65'
J. Musiala / S. Gnabry ↕
⚽L. Holer
71'
73'
Michael Olise
↕ J. Manzambi / I. Matanovic
78'
↕ J. Beste / C. Irie
78'
81'
ast. L. Karl · T. Bischof⚽
87'
A. Davies / Kim Min-Jae ↕
↕ L. Holer / B. Ogbus
89'
Noah Atubolu
90'+9
90'+10
Lennart Karl
↕ Y. Suzuki / N. Hofler
90'
90'
ast. M. Olise · T. Bischof⚽
90'
ast. A. Davies · L. Karl⚽
Pre-match prediction
18.53%
SC
14.36%
X
67.11%
Bayern ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 67.11% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
SC
1.41
1.82
+0.41
Bayern
3.19
2.80
-0.39
Bayern München dominated by xG (2.80 vs 1.82). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Lineups
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
1 Noah Atubolu Noah Atubolu G 6.60
30 Christian Günter Christian Günter 65' D 7.00
3 Philipp Lienhart Philipp Lienhart D 6.20
28 Matthias Ginter Matthias Ginter D 6.50
29 Philipp Treu Philipp Treu D 6.20
44 Johan Manzambi Johan Manzambi 1 ⚽ 78' M 8.30
8 Maximilian Eggestein Maximilian Eggestein 1 👟 M 7.20
7 Derry Scherhant Derry Scherhant M 6.90
14 Y. Suzuki Y. Suzuki 89' M 6.20
19 J. Beste J. Beste 78' M 8.30
9 L. Höler L. Höler 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.60
Bench
43 Bruno Ogbus Bruno Ogbus 12' D 6.50
22 Cyriaque Irié Cyriaque Irié 12' F 6.60
31 I. Matanović I. Matanović 12' F 6.90
17 Lukas Kübler Lukas Kübler 25' D 6.20
27 Nicolas Höfler Nicolas Höfler 11' M 6.20
32 V. Grifo V. Grifo M
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
1
M. Neuer G 6.30
20
T. Bischof 2 ⚽ D 8.70
4
Jonathan Tah 56' D 7.20
3
Kim Min-Jae 87' D 6.60
44
J. Stanisic D 6.30
8
Leon Goretzka 56' M 6.50
6 J. Kimmich J. Kimmich M 7.50
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz M 6.30
22
R. Guerreiro 56' M 6.20
42
Lennart Karl 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 6.30
7 S. Gnabry S. Gnabry 65' F 6.60
Bench
19
A. Davies 1 👟 14' D 7.00
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović 34' M 6.60
2 D. Upamecano D. Upamecano D
21
H. Ito D
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 25' M 6.30
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer 34' M 7.00
17 M. Olise M. Olise 1 👟 34' M 5.90
Best on the pitch
T. Bischof
D · Bayern
8.70
2 ⚽
4 shots · 52 pass
J. Beste
J. Beste
M · SC
8.30
1 shots · 18 pass
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi
M · SC
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 20 pass
L. Höler
L. Höler
F · SC
7.60
1 ⚽
4 shots · 14 pass
J. Kimmich
J. Kimmich
M · Bayern
7.50
2 shots · 83 pass
Maximilian Eggestein
Maximilian Eggestein
M · SC
7.20
1 👟
· 27 pass
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Noah Atubolu G 90 6.60 — — — 42 23% — 1 —
Christian Günter D 65 7.00 — — — 16 11% 1 1 —
Philipp Lienhart D 90 6.20 — — 1 33 28% 2 — —
Matthias Ginter D 90 6.50 — — — 26 23% 3 1 —
Philipp Treu D 90 6.20 — — 1 26 23% 2 — —
Johan Manzambi M 78 8.30 1 — 1 20 14% 1 — —
Maximilian Eggestein M 90 7.20 — 1 — 27 18% 1 — —
Derry Scherhant M 90 6.90 — — — 10 9% 1 — —
Y. Suzuki M 89 6.20 — — — 9 6% 1 — —
J. Beste M 78 8.30 — — 1 18 13% 5 — —
L. Höler F 89 7.60 1 — 4 14 9% 2 — —
Bruno Ogbus D 12 6.50 — — — 2 2% 2 — —
Cyriaque Irié F 12 6.60 — — — 3 3% — — —
I. Matanović F 12 6.90 — — 1 5 3% 1 — —
Lukas Kübler D 25 6.20 — — — 3 2% 1 — —
Nicolas Höfler M 11 6.20 — — — 1 1% — — —
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Neuer G 90 6.30 — — — 48 36% — — —
T. Bischof D 90 8.70 2 — 4 52 46% 1 — —
Jonathan Tah D 56 7.20 — — — 52 50% 2 1 —
Kim Min-Jae D 87 6.60 — — — 58 56% 1 — —
J. Stanisic D 90 6.30 — — — 57 53% 1 — —
Leon Goretzka M 56 6.50 — — — 29 27% — — —
J. Kimmich M 90 7.50 — — 2 83 76% 3 — —
L. Díaz M 90 6.30 — — 2 44 37% 1 — —
R. Guerreiro M 56 6.20 — — — 19 16% — — —
Lennart Karl M 90 6.30 1 1 2 38 30% 2 1 —
S. Gnabry F 65 6.60 — — 1 32 31% 2 — —
A. Davies D 14 7.00 — 1 — 7 6% — — —
A. Pavlović M 34 6.60 — — — 40 35% 1 — —
J. Musiala M 25 6.30 — — 1 13 12% — — —
K. Laimer M 34 7.00 — — — 27 25% 1 — —
M. Olise M 34 5.90 — 1 2 33 24% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
The final score was SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 18% probability to a SC Freiburg win, 14% to a draw, and 67% to an Bayern München win.