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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 28 April 04, 2026 15:30 Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg
SC Freiburg
#3 · 13 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Bayern München
#1 · 17 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
J. Manzambi (ast. M. Eggestein) 46'
L. Holer 71'
81' (ast. L. Karl) T. Bischof
90' (ast. M. Olise) T. Bischof
90' (ast. A. Davies) L. Karl
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 67% win probability (draw 14%, SC Freiburg 18%). The final result was SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern München. In 2 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Bayern München.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
14
4
Shots on target
9
1.82
Actual xG
2.80
6
Saves
2
30%
Possession
70%
5
Corners
8
23
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Christian Günter
-5'
25'
Jonathan Tah
Matthias Ginter
29'
⚽J. Manzambi · ast. M. Eggestein
46'
56'
K. Laimer / J. Tah ↕
56'
M. Olise / R. Guerreiro ↕
56'
A. Pavlovic / L. Goretzka ↕
↕ C. Gunter / L. Kubler
65'
65'
J. Musiala / S. Gnabry ↕
⚽L. Holer
71'
73'
Michael Olise
↕ J. Manzambi / I. Matanovic
78'
↕ J. Beste / C. Irie
78'
81'
ast. L. Karl · T. Bischof⚽
87'
A. Davies / Kim Min-Jae ↕
↕ L. Holer / B. Ogbus
89'
Noah Atubolu
90'+9
90'+10
Lennart Karl
↕ Y. Suzuki / N. Hofler
90'
90'
ast. M. Olise · T. Bischof⚽
90'
ast. A. Davies · L. Karl⚽
Pre-match prediction
18.53%
SC
14.36%
X
67.11%
Bayern ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 67.11% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
SC
1.41
1.82
+0.41
Bayern
3.19
2.80
-0.39
Bayern München dominated by xG (2.80 vs 1.82). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
1 N. Atubolu N. Atubolu G 6.60
30 C. Günter C. Günter 65' D 7.00
3 P. Lienhart P. Lienhart D 6.20
28 M. Ginter M. Ginter D 6.50
29 P. Treu P. Treu D 6.20
44 J. Manzambi J. Manzambi 1 ⚽ 78' M 8.30
8 M. Eggestein M. Eggestein 1 👟 M 7.20
7 D. Scherhant D. Scherhant M 6.90
14 Y. Suzuki Y. Suzuki 89' M 6.20
19 J. Beste J. Beste 78' M 8.30
9 L. Höler L. Höler 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.60
Bench
22 Cyriaque Kalou Irié Cyriaque Kalou Irié 12' F 6.60
31 I. Matanović I. Matanović 12' F 6.90
43 I. Ogbus I. Ogbus 12' D 6.50
17 L. Kübler L. Kübler 25' D 6.20
27 Nicolas Höfler Nicolas Höfler 11' M 6.20
32 V. Grifo V. Grifo M
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer M. Neuer G 6.30
20 T. Bischof T. Bischof 2 ⚽ D 8.70
4 J. Tah J. Tah 56' D 7.20
3 Kim Min-Jae Kim Min-Jae 87' D 6.60
44 J. Stanišić J. Stanišić D 6.30
8 L. Goretzka L. Goretzka 56' M 6.50
6 J. Kimmich J. Kimmich M 7.50
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz M 6.30
22 Raphaël Guerreiro Raphaël Guerreiro 56' M 6.20
42 L. Karl L. Karl 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 6.30
7 S. Gnabry S. Gnabry 65' F 6.60
Bench
19 A. Davies A. Davies 1 👟 14' D 7.00
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović 34' M 6.60
2 D. Upamecano D. Upamecano D
21 H. Ito H. Ito D
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 25' M 6.30
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer 34' M 7.00
17 M. Olise M. Olise 1 👟 34' M 5.90
Best on the pitch
T. Bischof
T. Bischof
D · Bayern
8.70
2 ⚽
4 shots · 52 pass
J. Beste
J. Beste
M · SC
8.30
1 shots · 18 pass
J. Manzambi
J. Manzambi
M · SC
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 20 pass
L. Höler
L. Höler
F · SC
7.60
1 ⚽
4 shots · 14 pass
J. Kimmich
J. Kimmich
M · Bayern
7.50
2 shots · 83 pass
M. Eggestein
M. Eggestein
M · SC
7.20
1 👟
· 27 pass
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Atubolu G 90 6.60 — — — 42 23% — 1 —
C. Günter D 65 7.00 — — — 16 11% 1 1 —
P. Lienhart D 90 6.20 — — 1 33 28% 2 — —
M. Ginter D 90 6.50 — — — 26 23% 3 1 —
P. Treu D 90 6.20 — — 1 26 23% 2 — —
J. Manzambi M 78 8.30 1 — 1 20 14% 1 — —
M. Eggestein M 90 7.20 — 1 — 27 18% 1 — —
D. Scherhant M 90 6.90 — — — 10 9% 1 — —
Y. Suzuki M 89 6.20 — — — 9 6% 1 — —
J. Beste M 78 8.30 — — 1 18 13% 5 — —
L. Höler F 89 7.60 1 — 4 14 9% 2 — —
Cyriaque Kalou Irié F 12 6.60 — — — 3 3% — — —
I. Matanović F 12 6.90 — — 1 5 3% 1 — —
I. Ogbus D 12 6.50 — — — 2 2% 2 — —
L. Kübler D 25 6.20 — — — 3 2% 1 — —
Nicolas Höfler M 11 6.20 — — — 1 1% — — —
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Neuer G 90 6.30 — — — 48 36% — — —
T. Bischof D 90 8.70 2 — 4 52 46% 1 — —
J. Tah D 56 7.20 — — — 52 50% 2 1 —
Kim Min-Jae D 87 6.60 — — — 58 56% 1 — —
J. Stanišić D 90 6.30 — — — 57 53% 1 — —
L. Goretzka M 56 6.50 — — — 29 27% — — —
J. Kimmich M 90 7.50 — — 2 83 76% 3 — —
L. Díaz M 90 6.30 — — 2 44 37% 1 — —
Raphaël Guerreiro M 56 6.20 — — — 19 16% — — —
L. Karl M 90 6.30 1 1 2 38 30% 2 1 —
S. Gnabry F 65 6.60 — — 1 32 31% 2 — —
A. Davies D 14 7.00 — 1 — 7 6% — — —
A. Pavlović M 34 6.60 — — — 40 35% 1 — —
J. Musiala M 25 6.30 — — 1 13 12% — — —
K. Laimer M 34 7.00 — — — 27 25% 1 — —
M. Olise M 34 5.90 — 1 2 33 24% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
The final score was SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 18% probability to a SC Freiburg win, 14% to a draw, and 67% to an Bayern München win.