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Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 21, 2026 20:45
Southampton
#4 · 80 pts
2 – 2
Final score
Bristol City
#12 · 62 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Southampton, result Pareggio
C. Larin (ast. R. Manning) 29'
R. Stewart (ast. T. Fellows) 74'
(og) 5' R. Manning
63' (ast. T. Horvat) S. Bell

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 73% win probability (draw 16%, Bristol City 10%). The final result was Southampton 2–2 Bristol City. In 1 previous meetings, Southampton have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bristol City.

Match statistics
6
Total shots
7
4
Shots on target
5
1.80
Actual xG
0.74
4
Saves
2
54%
Possession
46%
7
Corners
3
11
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
5'
(og) R. Manning⚽
S. Charles
28'
⚽C. Larin · ast. R. Manning
29'
↕ K. Matsuki / T. Fellows
57'
↕ C. Archer / L. Scienza
57'
F. Downes
62'
63'
ast. T. Horvat · S. Bell⚽
↕ F. Azaz / C. Jander
71'
↕ J. Bree / R. Stewart
71'
72'
M. Sykes / S. Bell ↕
⚽R. Stewart · ast. T. Fellows
74'
76'
C. Pring
C. Larin
80'
81'
R. Dickie / T. Horvat ↕
↕ F. Downes / C. Bragg
87'
90'+1
S. Morsy
90'+8
R. Dickie
Pre-match prediction
73.07%
Southampton
16.87%
X ←
10.06%
Bristol
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 16.87% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Southampton
2.49
1.80
-0.69
Bristol
0.76
0.74
-0.02
Southampton dominated by xG (1.80 vs 0.74). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Southampton Southampton 4-2-3-1
41
G 7.30
3 Ryan Manning Ryan Manning 1 ⚽ 1 👟 D 6.30
15
D 6.30
6 Taylor Harwood-Bellis Taylor Harwood-Bellis D 7.30
14 James Bree James Bree 71' D 6.30
24 Shea Charles Shea Charles M 6.00
4 F. Downes F. Downes 87' M 6.70
10 F. Azaz F. Azaz 71' M 6.50
19 Cameron Archer Cameron Archer 57' M 7.20
27 Kuryu Matsuki Kuryu Matsuki 57' M 6.50
9 C. Larin C. Larin 1 ⚽ F 7.00
Bench
48 Cameron Bragg Cameron Bragg 12' M 6.30
20 Caspar Jander Caspar Jander 19' M 7.90
13 Léo Scienza Léo Scienza 33' M 6.20
11 Ross Stewart Ross Stewart 1 ⚽ 19' F 6.90
23 Samuel Edozie Samuel Edozie M
18 Tom Fellows Tom Fellows 1 👟 33' M 7.30
34 Welington Welington D
Bristol City Bristol City 4-2-3-1
23
G 7.90
3
C. Pring D 6.00
21
D 6.90
38
N. Eile D 6.90
2
R. McCrorie D 6.00
40
S. Morsy M 7.00
12
M 7.20
10 S. Twine S. Twine M 6.30
14 T. Horvat T. Horvat 1 👟 81' M 7.30
20
S. Bell 1 ⚽ 72' M 7.30
11
D. Burgzorg F 6.90
Bench
18
E. Riis F
17
Mark Sykes 18' M 6.30
16
R. Dickie 9' D 6.90
Best on the pitch
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander
M · Southampton
7.90
· 15 pass
G · Bristol
7.90
· 51 pass
G · Southampton
7.30
· 33 pass
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows
M · Southampton
7.30
1 👟
· 7 pass
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
D · Southampton
7.30
· 80 pass
S. Bell
M · Bristol
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 12 pass
Southampton Southampton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.30 — — — 33 27% — — —
Ryan Manning D 90 6.30 1 1 — 64 55% 1 — —
D 90 6.30 — — — 93 84% — — —
Taylor Harwood-Bellis D 90 7.30 — — — 80 71% 1 — —
James Bree D 71 6.30 — — — 26 19% — — —
Shea Charles M 90 6.00 — — 2 60 48% 1 1 —
F. Downes M 87 6.70 — — — 47 47% 2 1 —
F. Azaz M 71 6.50 — — — 31 23% 2 — —
Cameron Archer M 57 7.20 — — 1 14 13% — — —
Kuryu Matsuki M 57 6.50 — — — 18 11% — — —
C. Larin F 90 7.00 1 — 1 11 4% 1 1 —
Cameron Bragg M 12 6.30 — — — 11 9% — — —
Caspar Jander M 19 7.90 — — — 15 15% 1 — —
Léo Scienza M 33 6.20 — — — 10 7% 1 — —
Ross Stewart F 19 6.90 1 — 2 4 3% 1 — —
Tom Fellows M 33 7.30 — 1 — 7 7% — — —
Bristol City Bristol City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.90 — — — 51 37% — — —
C. Pring D 90 6.00 — — — 33 30% 1 1 —
D 90 6.90 — — — 51 47% 1 — —
N. Eile D 90 6.90 — — — 60 54% 2 — —
R. McCrorie D 90 6.00 — — — 33 29% — — —
S. Morsy M 90 7.00 — — 1 64 58% 2 1 —
M 90 7.20 — — — 60 52% 2 — —
S. Twine M 90 6.30 — — — 24 13% 4 — —
T. Horvat M 81 7.30 — 1 3 35 32% 1 — —
S. Bell M 72 7.30 1 — 1 12 10% — — —
D. Burgzorg F 90 6.90 — — 2 21 20% 1 — —
Mark Sykes M 18 6.30 — — — 6 2% — — —
R. Dickie D 9 6.90 — — — 1 — — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Southampton vs Bristol City?
The final score was Southampton 2–2 Bristol City.
What did the model predict before Southampton vs Bristol City?
The model assigned 73% probability to a Southampton win, 16% to a draw, and 10% to an Bristol City win.