Southampton 2–2 Bristol City — pre-match prediction — Championship — April 21, 2026

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Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 21, 2026 20:45 St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

Southampton

#6 · 20 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Bristol City

#14 · 15 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Southampton, result Draw

C. Larin (ast. R. Manning) 29'

R. Stewart (ast. T. Fellows) 74'

(og) 5' R. Manning

63' (ast. T. Horvat) S. Bell

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 73% win probability (draw 16%, Bristol City 10%). The final result was Southampton 2–2 Bristol City. In 2 previous meetings, Southampton have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bristol City.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.80

Actual xG

0.74

Saves

54%

Possession

46%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

(og) R. Manning⚽

S. Charles

28'

⚽C. Larin · ast. R. Manning

29'

↕ K. Matsuki / T. Fellows

57'

↕ C. Archer / L. Scienza

57'

F. Downes

62'

63'

ast. T. Horvat · S. Bell⚽

↕ F. Azaz / C. Jander

71'

↕ J. Bree / R. Stewart

71'

72'

M. Sykes / S. Bell ↕

⚽R. Stewart · ast. T. Fellows

74'

76'

C. Pring

C. Larin

80'

81'

R. Dickie / T. Horvat ↕

↕ F. Downes / C. Bragg

87'

90'+1

S. Morsy

90'+8

R. Dickie

Pre-match prediction

73.07%

Southampton

16.87%

X ←

10.06%

Bristol

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 16.87% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Southampton

2.49

1.80

-0.69

Bristol

0.76

0.74

-0.02

Southampton dominated by xG (1.80 vs 0.74). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	25
2	Swansea	12	23
3	West Ham	12	22
4	Wolves	12	21
5	West Brom	12	21
6	Southampton	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	20
8	QPR	12	20
9	Stoke City	12	20
10	Blackburn	12	18
11	Portsmouth	12	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	16
13	Millwall	12	15
14	Bristol City	12	15
15	Lincoln	12	15
16	Cardiff	12	14
17	Wrexham	12	14
18	Bolton	12	14
19	Charlton	12	14
20	Norwich	12	12
21	Watford	12	11
22	Burnley	12	8
23	Derby	12	7
24	Preston	12	5

Lineups

Southampton 4-2-3-1

G 7.30

R. Manning 1 ⚽ 1 👟 D 6.30

D 6.30

T. Harwood-Bellis D 7.30

J. Bree 71' D 6.30

S. Charles M 6.00

F. Downes 87' M 6.70

F. Azaz 71' M 6.50

C. Archer 57' M 7.20

K. Matsuki 57' M 6.50

C. Larin 1 ⚽ F 7.00

Bench

Cameron Bragg 12' M 6.30

C. Jander 19' M 7.90

Léo Scienza 33' M 6.20

R. Stewart 1 ⚽ 19' F 6.90

S. Edozie M

T. Fellows 1 👟 33' M 7.30

Welington D

Bristol City 4-2-3-1

G 7.90

C. Pring D 6.00

D 6.90

N. Eile D 6.90

R. McCrorie D 6.00

Sam Morsy M 7.00

M 7.20

S. Twine M 6.30

T. Horvat 1 👟 81' M 7.30

S. Bell 1 ⚽ 72' M 7.30

D. Burgzorg F 6.90

Bench

E. Riis F

M. Sykes 18' M 6.30

R. Dickie 9' D 6.90

Best on the pitch

C. Jander

M · Southampton

7.90

· 15 pass

G · Bristol

7.90

· 51 pass

G · Southampton

7.30

· 33 pass

T. Fellows

M · Southampton

7.30

1 👟

· 7 pass

T. Harwood-Bellis

D · Southampton

7.30

· 80 pass

S. Bell

M · Bristol

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 12 pass

Southampton — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	7.30	—	—	—	33	27%	—	—	—
R. Manning	D	90	6.30	1	1	—	64	55%	1	—	—
	D	90	6.30	—	—	—	93	84%	—	—	—
T. Harwood-Bellis	D	90	7.30	—	—	—	80	71%	1	—	—
J. Bree	D	71	6.30	—	—	—	26	19%	—	—	—
S. Charles	M	90	6.00	—	—	2	60	48%	1	1	—
F. Downes	M	87	6.70	—	—	—	47	47%	2	1	—
F. Azaz	M	71	6.50	—	—	—	31	23%	2	—	—
C. Archer	M	57	7.20	—	—	1	14	13%	—	—	—
K. Matsuki	M	57	6.50	—	—	—	18	11%	—	—	—
C. Larin	F	90	7.00	1	—	1	11	4%	1	1	—
Cameron Bragg	M	12	6.30	—	—	—	11	9%	—	—	—
C. Jander	M	19	7.90	—	—	—	15	15%	1	—	—
Léo Scienza	M	33	6.20	—	—	—	10	7%	1	—	—
R. Stewart	F	19	6.90	1	—	2	4	3%	1	—	—
T. Fellows	M	33	7.30	—	1	—	7	7%	—	—	—

Bristol City — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	7.90	—	—	—	51	37%	—	—	—
C. Pring	D	90	6.00	—	—	—	33	30%	1	1	—
	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	51	47%	1	—	—
N. Eile	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	60	54%	2	—	—
R. McCrorie	D	90	6.00	—	—	—	33	29%	—	—	—
Sam Morsy	M	90	7.00	—	—	1	64	58%	2	1	—
	M	90	7.20	—	—	—	60	52%	2	—	—
S. Twine	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	24	13%	4	—	—
T. Horvat	M	81	7.30	—	1	3	35	32%	1	—	—
S. Bell	M	72	7.30	1	—	1	12	10%	—	—	—
D. Burgzorg	F	90	6.90	—	—	2	21	20%	1	—	—
M. Sykes	M	18	6.30	—	—	—	6	2%	—	—	—
R. Dickie	D	9	6.90	—	—	—	1	—	—	1	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Southampton vs Bristol City?

The final score was Southampton 2–2 Bristol City.

What did the model predict before Southampton vs Bristol City?

The model assigned 73% probability to a Southampton win, 16% to a draw, and 10% to an Bristol City win.