Southampton 2–2 Bristol City — pre-match prediction — Championship — April 21, 2026

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Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 21, 2026 20:45 St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

Southampton

#7 · 10 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Bristol City

#10 · 10 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Southampton, result Draw

C. Larin (ast. R. Manning) 29'

R. Stewart (ast. T. Fellows) 74'

(og) 5' R. Manning

63' (ast. T. Horvat) S. Bell

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 73% win probability (draw 16%, Bristol City 10%). The final result was Southampton 2–2 Bristol City. In 2 previous meetings, Southampton have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bristol City.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.80

Actual xG

0.74

Saves

54%

Possession

46%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

(og) R. Manning⚽

S. Charles

28'

⚽C. Larin · ast. R. Manning

29'

↕ K. Matsuki / T. Fellows

57'

↕ C. Archer / L. Scienza

57'

F. Downes

62'

63'

ast. T. Horvat · S. Bell⚽

↕ F. Azaz / C. Jander

71'

↕ J. Bree / R. Stewart

71'

72'

M. Sykes / S. Bell ↕

⚽R. Stewart · ast. T. Fellows

74'

76'

C. Pring

C. Larin

80'

81'

R. Dickie / T. Horvat ↕

↕ F. Downes / C. Bragg

87'

90'+1

S. Morsy

90'+8

R. Dickie

Pre-match prediction

73.07%

Southampton

16.87%

X ←

10.06%

Bristol

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 16.87% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Southampton

2.49

1.80

-0.69

Bristol

0.76

0.74

-0.02

Southampton dominated by xG (1.80 vs 0.74). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	West Ham	7	14
2	Swansea	7	14
3	West Brom	7	14
4	Middlesbrough	6	13
5	QPR	7	12
6	Charlton	7	12
7	Southampton	7	10
8	Birmingham	7	10
9	Stoke City	7	10
10	Bristol City	6	10
11	Norwich	7	9
12	Millwall	6	9
13	Sheffield Utd	6	9
14	Wolves	5	8
15	Blackburn	7	8
16	Lincoln	6	8
17	Watford	7	8
18	Portsmouth	6	7
19	Wrexham	7	7
20	Bolton	7	7
21	Cardiff	7	4
22	Derby	7	4
23	Preston	7	3
24	Burnley	7	3

Lineups

Southampton 4-2-3-1

G 7.30

R. Manning 1 ⚽ 1 👟 D 6.30

D 6.30

Taylor Harwood-Bellis D 7.30

J. Bree 71' D 6.30

S. Charles M 6.00

F. Downes 87' M 6.70

F. Azaz 71' M 6.50

C. Archer 57' M 7.20

K. Matsuki 57' M 6.50

C. Larin 1 ⚽ F 7.00

Bench

Cameron Bragg 12' M 6.30

Caspar Jander 19' M 7.90

Léo Scienza 33' M 6.20

Ross Stewart 1 ⚽ 19' F 6.90

S. Edozie M

T. Fellows 1 👟 33' M 7.30

Welington D

Bristol City 4-2-3-1

G 7.90

C. Pring D 6.00

D 6.90

N. Eile D 6.90

R. McCrorie D 6.00

Sam Morsy M 7.00

M 7.20

S. Twine M 6.30

T. Horvat 1 👟 81' M 7.30

Sam Bell 1 ⚽ 72' M 7.30

D. Burgzorg F 6.90

Bench

E. Riis F

M. Sykes 18' M 6.30

R. Dickie 9' D 6.90

Best on the pitch

Caspar Jander

M · Southampton

7.90

· 15 pass

G · Bristol

7.90

· 51 pass

G · Southampton

7.30

· 33 pass

T. Fellows

M · Southampton

7.30

1 👟

· 7 pass

Taylor Harwood-Bellis

D · Southampton

7.30

· 80 pass

Sam Bell

M · Bristol

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 12 pass

Southampton — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	7.30	—	—	—	33	27%	—	—	—
R. Manning	D	90	6.30	1	1	—	64	55%	1	—	—
	D	90	6.30	—	—	—	93	84%	—	—	—
Taylor Harwood-Bellis	D	90	7.30	—	—	—	80	71%	1	—	—
J. Bree	D	71	6.30	—	—	—	26	19%	—	—	—
S. Charles	M	90	6.00	—	—	2	60	48%	1	1	—
F. Downes	M	87	6.70	—	—	—	47	47%	2	1	—
F. Azaz	M	71	6.50	—	—	—	31	23%	2	—	—
C. Archer	M	57	7.20	—	—	1	14	13%	—	—	—
K. Matsuki	M	57	6.50	—	—	—	18	11%	—	—	—
C. Larin	F	90	7.00	1	—	1	11	4%	1	1	—
Cameron Bragg	M	12	6.30	—	—	—	11	9%	—	—	—
Caspar Jander	M	19	7.90	—	—	—	15	15%	1	—	—
Léo Scienza	M	33	6.20	—	—	—	10	7%	1	—	—
Ross Stewart	F	19	6.90	1	—	2	4	3%	1	—	—
T. Fellows	M	33	7.30	—	1	—	7	7%	—	—	—

Bristol City — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	7.90	—	—	—	51	37%	—	—	—
C. Pring	D	90	6.00	—	—	—	33	30%	1	1	—
	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	51	47%	1	—	—
N. Eile	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	60	54%	2	—	—
R. McCrorie	D	90	6.00	—	—	—	33	29%	—	—	—
Sam Morsy	M	90	7.00	—	—	1	64	58%	2	1	—
	M	90	7.20	—	—	—	60	52%	2	—	—
S. Twine	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	24	13%	4	—	—
T. Horvat	M	81	7.30	—	1	3	35	32%	1	—	—
Sam Bell	M	72	7.30	1	—	1	12	10%	—	—	—
D. Burgzorg	F	90	6.90	—	—	2	21	20%	1	—	—
M. Sykes	M	18	6.30	—	—	—	6	2%	—	—	—
R. Dickie	D	9	6.90	—	—	—	1	—	—	1	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Southampton vs Bristol City?

The final score was Southampton 2–2 Bristol City.

What did the model predict before Southampton vs Bristol City?

The model assigned 73% probability to a Southampton win, 16% to a draw, and 10% to an Bristol City win.