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Champions League · Quarter-finals April 07, 2026 21:00
Sporting CP
#7 · 16 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Arsenal
#1 · 24 pts
90'+1 (ast. G. Martinelli) K. Havertz

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 52% win probability (draw 23%, Arsenal 23%). The final result was Sporting CP 0–1 Arsenal. In 1 previous meetings, Sporting CP have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Arsenal.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
4
0.84
Actual xG
0.78
3
Saves
5
44%
Possession
56%
3
Corners
4
14
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
H. Morita
31'
↕ J. Simoes / D. Braganca
62'
63'
70'
K. Havertz / M. Odegaard ↕
76'
M. Dowman / N. Madueke ↕
76'
G. Martinelli / L. Trossard ↕
↕ P. Goncalves / R. Nel
79'
90'+1
ast. G. Martinelli · K. Havertz⚽
Pre-match prediction
52.97%
Sporting
23.72%
X
23.31%
Arsenal ←
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal) 23.31% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Sporting
1.73
0.84
-0.89
Arsenal
0.98
0.78
-0.2
xG dominance was balanced (0.84 – 0.78). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Arsenal Arsenal 8 24
2 Bayern München Bayern München 8 21
3 Liverpool Liverpool 8 18
4 Tottenham Tottenham 8 17
5 Barcelona Barcelona 8 16
6 Chelsea Chelsea 8 16
7 Sporting CP Sporting CP 8 16
8 Manchester City Manchester City 8 16
9 Real Madrid Real Madrid 8 15
10 Inter Inter 8 15
11 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 8 14
12 Newcastle Newcastle 8 14
13 Juventus Juventus 8 13
14 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 8 13
15 Atalanta Atalanta 8 13
16 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 8 12
17 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 8 11
18 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 8 11
19 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV 8 10
20 Galatasaray Galatasaray 8 10
21 Monaco Monaco 8 10
22 Qarabag Qarabag 8 10
23 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt 8 9
24 Benfica Benfica 8 9
25 Marseille Marseille 8 9
26 Pafos Pafos 8 9
27 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 8 9
28 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 8 8
29 Athletic Club Athletic Club 8 8
30 Napoli Napoli 8 8
31 FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen 8 8
32 Ajax Ajax 8 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 8 4
34 Slavia Praha Slavia Praha 8 3
35 Villarreal Villarreal 8 1
36 Kairat Almaty Kairat Almaty 8 1
Lineups
Sporting CP Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
1 Rui Silva Rui Silva G 6.90
20 M. Araújo M. Araújo D 6.90
25 Gonçalo Inácio Gonçalo Inácio D 6.90
26 Ousmane Diomande Ousmane Diomande D 6.60
22
I. Fresneda D 6.20
52
João Simões 62' M 6.70
5 Hidemasa Morita Hidemasa Morita M 6.70
8 Pote Pote 79' M 6.90
17 Trincão Trincão M 6.70
10 Geny Catamo Geny Catamo M 7.20
97 L. Suárez L. Suárez F 7.00
Bench
23 Daniel Bragança Daniel Bragança 28' M 6.50
41
Diego Callai G
58
F. Goncalves F
14 Giorgi Kochorashvili Giorgi Kochorashvili M
13
Giorgos Vagiannidis D
72 Quaresma Quaresma D
90 Rafael Nel Rafael Nel 11' F 6.30
91 Ricardo Mangas Ricardo Mangas D
6
Z. Debast D
Arsenal Arsenal 4-3-3
1 David Raya David Raya G 8.60
33 Riccardo Calafiori Riccardo Calafiori D 6.60
6 Gabriel Magalhães Gabriel Magalhães D 6.90
2
D 7.30
4 Ben White Ben White D 7.00
41 D. Rice D. Rice M 6.90
36 Martín Zubimendi Martín Zubimendi M 6.90
8 M. Ødegaard M. Ødegaard 70' M 6.90
19 L. Trossard L. Trossard 76' F 6.90
14 V. Gyökeres V. Gyökeres F 6.50
20 Noni Madueke Noni Madueke 76' F 7.20
Bench
16
C. Norgaard M
3 Cristhian Mosquera Cristhian Mosquera D
9
Gabriel Jesus F
11 Gabriel Martinelli Gabriel Martinelli 1 👟 14' F 6.90
29 K. Havertz K. Havertz 1 ⚽ 20' F 7.50
49 Myles Lewis-Skelly Myles Lewis-Skelly D
Best on the pitch
David Raya
David Raya
G · Arsenal
8.60
· 28 pass
K. Havertz
K. Havertz
F · Arsenal
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 5 pass
D · Arsenal
7.30
· 92 pass
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke
F · Arsenal
7.20
· 23 pass
Geny Catamo
Geny Catamo
M · Sporting
7.20
4 shots · 29 pass
Ben White
Ben White
D · Arsenal
7.00
· 50 pass
Sporting CP Sporting CP — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Rui Silva G 90 6.90 — — — 27 23% — — —
M. Araújo D 90 6.90 — — 2 32 27% 9 — —
Gonçalo Inácio D 90 6.90 — — — 66 52% — — —
Ousmane Diomande D 90 6.60 — — 1 54 50% — — —
I. Fresneda D 90 6.20 — — — 42 38% — — —
João Simões M 62 6.70 — — — 15 13% — — —
Hidemasa Morita M 90 6.70 — — — 50 45% 2 1 —
Pote M 79 6.90 — — — 20 16% — — —
Trincão M 90 6.70 — — 1 36 32% 1 — —
Geny Catamo M 90 7.20 — — 4 29 28% — — —
L. Suárez F 90 7.00 — — 1 23 16% 2 — —
Daniel Bragança M 28 6.50 — — — 8 5% — — —
Rafael Nel F 11 6.30 — — — 2 1% — — —
Arsenal Arsenal — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
David Raya G 90 8.60 — — — 28 26% — — —
Riccardo Calafiori D 90 6.60 — — — 22 18% 3 — —
Gabriel Magalhães D 90 6.90 — — — 65 61% 1 — —
D 90 7.30 — — — 92 88% 2 — —
Ben White D 90 7.00 — — — 50 42% 2 — —
D. Rice M 90 6.90 — — — 69 67% — — —
Martín Zubimendi M 90 6.90 — — — 61 58% — — —
M. Ødegaard M 70 6.90 — — 2 59 48% 2 — —
L. Trossard F 76 6.90 — — 1 20 17% 3 — —
V. Gyökeres F 90 6.50 — — 1 9 7% — — —
Noni Madueke F 76 7.20 — — — 23 22% — — —
Gabriel Martinelli F 14 6.90 — 1 1 6 6% — — —
K. Havertz F 20 7.50 1 — 1 5 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Arsenal?
The final score was Sporting CP 0–1 Arsenal.
What did the model predict before Sporting CP vs Arsenal?
The model assigned 52% probability to a Sporting CP win, 23% to a draw, and 23% to an Arsenal win.