Champions League
· Quarter-finals
April 07, 2026 21:00
90'+1
(ast. G. Martinelli)
K. Havertz
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 52% win probability (draw 23%, Arsenal 23%). The final result was Sporting CP 0–1 Arsenal. In 1 previous meetings, Sporting CP have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Arsenal.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
4
0.84
Actual xG
0.78
3
Saves
5
44%
Possession
56%
3
Corners
4
14
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
H. Morita
31'
J. Simoes
/ D. Braganca
62'
63'
70'
K. Havertz
/
M. Odegaard
76'
M. Dowman
/
N. Madueke
76'
G. Martinelli
/
L. Trossard
P. Goncalves
/ R. Nel
79'
90'+1
ast. G. Martinelli ·
K. Havertz⚽
Pre-match prediction
52.97%
Sporting
23.72%
X
23.31%
Arsenal ←
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal)
23.31%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.73
0.84
-0.89
0.98
0.78
-0.2
xG dominance was balanced (0.84 – 0.78).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Rui Silva
G
Rui Silva
G
20
M. Araújo
D
M. Araújo
D
25
Gonçalo Inácio
D
Gonçalo Inácio
D
26
Ousmane Diomande
D
22
Iván Fresneda
D
Iván Fresneda
D
52
João Simões
62'
M
João Simões
62'
M
5
H. Morita
M
H. Morita
M
8
Pedro Gonçalves
79'
M
Pedro Gonçalves
79'
M
17
Trincão
M
Trincão
M
10
Geny Catamo
M
Geny Catamo
M
97
L. Suárez
F
L. Suárez
F
Bench
23
Daniel Bragança
28'
M
Daniel Bragança
28'
M
41
Diego Callai
G
Diego Callai
G
72
Eduardo Quaresma
D
Eduardo Quaresma
D
58
Flávio Gonçalves
F
Flávio Gonçalves
F
14
G. Kochorashvili
M
G. Kochorashvili
M
13
G. Vagiannidis
D
G. Vagiannidis
D
90
Rafael Ferreira Nel
11'
F
Rafael Ferreira Nel
11'
F
91
Ricardo Mangas
D
Ricardo Mangas
D
6
Z. Debast
D
Z. Debast
D
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
33
R. Calafiori
D
R. Calafiori
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
2
D
4
B. White
D
B. White
D
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
36
Martín Zubimendi
M
Martín Zubimendi
M
8
M. Ødegaard
70'
M
M. Ødegaard
70'
M
19
L. Trossard
76'
F
L. Trossard
76'
F
14
V. Gyökeres
F
V. Gyökeres
F
20
N. Madueke
76'
F
N. Madueke
76'
F
Bench
16
C. Nørgaard
M
C. Nørgaard
M
3
Cristhian Mosquera
D
Cristhian Mosquera
D
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
Gabriel Jesus
F
11
Gabriel Martinelli
1 👟
14'
F
Gabriel Martinelli
1 👟
14'
F
29
K. Havertz
1 ⚽
20'
F
K. Havertz
1 ⚽
20'
F
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
D
M. Lewis-Skelly
D
Best on the pitch
David Raya
G · Arsenal
8.60
· 28 pass
K. Havertz
F · Arsenal
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 5 pass
D · Arsenal
7.30
· 92 pass
N. Madueke
F · Arsenal
7.20
· 23 pass
Geny Catamo
M · Sporting
7.20
4 shots
· 29 pass
B. White
D · Arsenal
7.00
· 50 pass
Sporting CP — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Silva | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 23% | — | — | — |
| M. Araújo | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 27% | 9 | — | — |
| Gonçalo Inácio | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 66 | 52% | — | — | — |
| Ousmane Diomande | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 50% | — | — | — |
| Iván Fresneda | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 38% | — | — | — |
| João Simões | M | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| H. Morita | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 50 | 45% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Pedro Gonçalves | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Trincão | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Geny Catamo | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 4 | 29 | 28% | — | — | — |
| L. Suárez | F | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Daniel Bragança | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Rafael Ferreira Nel | F | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 90 | 8.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 26% | — | — | — |
| R. Calafiori | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 65 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 92 | 88% | 2 | — | — | |
| B. White | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 50 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 69 | 67% | — | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 61 | 58% | — | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 70 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 59 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Trossard | F | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | 3 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| N. Madueke | F | 76 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 14 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 20 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Arsenal?
The final score was Sporting CP 0–1 Arsenal.
What did the model predict before Sporting CP vs Arsenal?
The model assigned 52% probability to a Sporting CP win, 23% to a draw, and 23% to an Arsenal win.