MLS
· Regular Season - 14
May 14, 2026 02:30
T. Totland
(ast. E. Lowen)
4'
Rafael Santos
64'
73'
(ast. Nkosi Tafari)
D. Martinez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 45% win probability (draw 28%, Los Angeles FC 26%). The final result was St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles FC. In 1 previous meetings, St. Louis City have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Los Angeles FC.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
9
2
Shots on target
4
1.72
Actual xG
1.68
3
Saves
0
38%
Possession
62%
2
Corners
8
17
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽T. Totland
· ast. E. Lowen
4'
J. Orozco
/ Rafael Santos
10'
S. Jeong
/ S. Becher
46'
T. Totland
49'
58'
E. Segura
D. Polvara
60'
⚽Rafael Santos
64'
E. Lowen
/ F. Fall
66'
67'
A. Long
70'
D. Martinez
/
T. Boyd
73'
ast. Nkosi Tafari ·
D. Martinez⚽
S. Becher
76'
77'
N. Ordaz
/
T. Tillman
77'
J. Shaffelburg
/
E. Segura
77'
S. Eustaquio
/
M. Choiniere
82'
R. Raposo
85'
R. Hollingshead
/
R. Raposo
S. Cordova
/ B. McSorley
90'
Pre-match prediction
45.81%
St. ←
28.11%
X
26.08%
Los
we assigned to the actual result (St. Louis City)
45.81%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.61
1.72
+0.11
0.94
1.68
+0.74
xG dominance was balanced (1.72 – 1.68).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Roman Bürki
G
Roman Bürki
G
21
Dante Polvara
D
Dante Polvara
D
32
Timo Baumgartl
D
Timo Baumgartl
D
5
Lukas MacNaughton
D
Lukas MacNaughton
D
14
Tomas Totland
1 ⚽
M
Tomas Totland
1 ⚽
M
24
Daniel Edelman
M
Daniel Edelman
M
10
Eduard Löwen
1 👟
66'
M
Eduard Löwen
1 👟
66'
M
99
Jaziel Orozco
10'
M
Jaziel Orozco
10'
M
17
Marcel Hartel
F
Marcel Hartel
F
16
Sergio Córdova
F
Sergio Córdova
F
77
Jeong Sang-bin
45'
F
Jeong Sang-bin
45'
F
Bench
39
Benjamin Lundt
G
Benjamin Lundt
G
80
Brendan McSorley
4'
F
Brendan McSorley
4'
F
36
Cedric Teuchert
F
Cedric Teuchert
F
27
Fallou Fall
28'
D
Fallou Fall
28'
D
4
Mamadou Mbacke
D
Mamadou Mbacke
D
28
Miguel Perez
M
Miguel Perez
M
59
Mykhi Joyner
M
Mykhi Joyner
M
20
Rafael Santos
1 ⚽
84'
D
Rafael Santos
1 ⚽
84'
D
11
Simon Becher
49'
F
Simon Becher
49'
F
1
Hugo Lloris
G
Hugo Lloris
G
4
Eddie Segura
77'
D
Eddie Segura
77'
D
91
Nkosi Tafari
1 👟
D
Nkosi Tafari
1 👟
D
33
Aaron Long
D
Aaron Long
D
21
Ryan Raposo
85'
D
Ryan Raposo
85'
D
66
Mathieu Choinière
77'
M
Mathieu Choinière
77'
M
11
Timothy Tillman
77'
M
Timothy Tillman
77'
M
8
Mark Delgado
M
Mark Delgado
M
99
Denis Bouanga
F
Denis Bouanga
F
7
Son Heung-min
F
Son Heung-min
F
19
Tyler Boyd
70'
F
Tyler Boyd
70'
F
Bench
29
Artem Smoliakov
D
Artem Smoliakov
D
30
David Martínez Morales
1 ⚽
24'
F
David Martínez Morales
1 ⚽
24'
F
18
Jacob Shaffelburg
17'
F
Jacob Shaffelburg
17'
F
17
Jeremy Ebobisse
F
Jeremy Ebobisse
F
27
Nathan Ordaz
17'
F
Nathan Ordaz
17'
F
24
Ryan Hollingshead
9'
D
Ryan Hollingshead
9'
D
5
Ryan Porteous
D
Ryan Porteous
D
46
Stephen Eustaquio
17'
M
Stephen Eustaquio
17'
M
12
Thomas Hasal
G
Thomas Hasal
G
Best on the pitch
Eduard Löwen
M · St.
8.00
1 👟
1 shots
· 42 pass
Tomas Totland
M · St.
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
Roman Bürki
G · St.
7.50
· 29 pass
David Martínez Morales
F · Los
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
Rafael Santos
D · St.
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 25 pass
Son Heung-min
F · Los
7.30
1 shots
· 41 pass
St. Louis City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Bürki | G | 94 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Dante Polvara | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 55 | 49% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Timo Baumgartl | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Lukas MacNaughton | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 42% | — | — | — |
| Tomas Totland | M | 94 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 30% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Daniel Edelman | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| Eduard Löwen | M | 66 | 8.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 42 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Jaziel Orozco | M | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Marcel Hartel | F | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Sergio Córdova | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Jeong Sang-bin | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Brendan McSorley | F | 4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Fallou Fall | D | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | D | 84 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 25 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Simon Becher | F | 49 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
Los Angeles FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Lloris | G | 94 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Eddie Segura | D | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 51% | — | 1 | — |
| Nkosi Tafari | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 67 | 63% | 3 | — | — |
| Aaron Long | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 91 | 88% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Ryan Raposo | D | 85 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 48 | 44% | — | 1 | — |
| Mathieu Choinière | M | 77 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 83 | 77% | 2 | — | — |
| Timothy Tillman | M | 77 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 54 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Mark Delgado | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 82 | 79% | 1 | — | — |
| Denis Bouanga | F | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Son Heung-min | F | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Tyler Boyd | F | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| David Martínez Morales | F | 24 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Jacob Shaffelburg | F | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Nathan Ordaz | F | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Ryan Hollingshead | D | 9 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Stephen Eustaquio | M | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 23 | 20% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC?
The final score was St. Louis City 2–1 Los Angeles FC.
What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Los Angeles FC?
The model assigned 45% probability to a St. Louis City win, 28% to a draw, and 26% to an Los Angeles FC win.