Scottish Premiership
· 1st Phase - 32
April 04, 2026 18:00
J. Ayunga
40'
A. Gogic
(ast. S. Tanser)
83'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave ST Mirren a 50% win probability (draw 29%, Aberdeen 19%). The final result was ST Mirren 2–0 Aberdeen. In 3 previous meetings, ST Mirren have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Aberdeen.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
0
0.72
Actual xG
0.59
0
Saves
2
57%
Possession
43%
8
Corners
5
14
Tackles
18
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
27'
Kenan Bilalovic
39'
Liam Morrison
⚽J. Ayunga
40'
Jonah Ayunga
45'+1
45'
Marko Lazetić
46'
S. Armstrong
/
T. Keskinen
46'
K. Nisbet
/
M. Lazetic
46'
T. Olusanya
/
K. Bilalovic
D. John
/ S. Tanser
59'
K. Phillips
/ D. N'Lundulu
59'
65'
L. Cameron
/
G. Shinnie
J. Ayunga
/ J. Richardson
68'
79'
D. Lobban
/
A. Jensen
⚽A. Gogic
· ast. S. Tanser
83'
Pre-match prediction
50.27%
ST ←
29.99%
X
19.74%
Aberdeen
we assigned to the actual result (ST Mirren)
50.27%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.33
0.72
-0.61
0.66
0.59
-0.08
xG dominance was balanced (0.72 – 0.59).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
S. George
G
21
Miguel Freckleton
D
Miguel Freckleton
D
13
Alexander Gogić
1 ⚽
D
Alexander Gogić
1 ⚽
D
4
Liam Donnelly
D
Liam Donnelly
D
24
D. John
59'
M
D. John
59'
M
16
Allan Campbell
M
Allan Campbell
M
8
Jacob Devaney
M
Jacob Devaney
M
88
Killian Phillips
59'
M
Killian Phillips
59'
M
6
M. O'Hara
9
Mikael Mandron
F
Mikael Mandron
F
11
J. Ayunga
1 ⚽
68'
F
Bench
10
C. McMenamin
F
5
Richard King
D
Richard King
D
31
R. Mullen
G
7
Roland Idowu
M
Roland Idowu
M
3
Scott Tanser
1 👟
31'
D
Scott Tanser
1 👟
31'
D
99
G
21
D
23
Liam Morrison
D
Liam Morrison
D
22
Jack Milne
D
Jack Milne
D
77
E. Gyamfi
4
Graeme Shinnie
65'
M
Graeme Shinnie
65'
M
32
Aremu Afeez
M
Aremu Afeez
M
28
A. Jensen
79'
M
14
Kenan Bilalovic
45'
F
Kenan Bilalovic
45'
F
27
Marko Lazetić
45'
F
81
Topi Keskinen
45'
F
Topi Keskinen
45'
F
Bench
15
Kevin Nisbet
45'
F
Kevin Nisbet
45'
F
25
Lyall Cameron
25'
M
Lyall Cameron
25'
M
16
S. Armstrong
45'
M
S. Armstrong
45'
M
20
Toyosi Olusanya
45'
F
Toyosi Olusanya
45'
F
Best on the pitch
Alexander Gogić
D · ST
8.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 49 pass
Mikael Mandron
F · ST
7.90
· 30 pass
Aremu Afeez
M · Aberdeen
7.50
· 33 pass
Graeme Shinnie
M · Aberdeen
7.50
· 30 pass
J. Ayunga
F · ST
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
D. John
M · ST
7.30
· 39 pass
ST Mirren — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. George | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 35 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Miguel Freckleton | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Alexander Gogić | D | 90 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 49 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| Liam Donnelly | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 44 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| D. John | M | 59 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Allan Campbell | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 39 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Jacob Devaney | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 67 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Killian Phillips | M | 59 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 27 | 23% | — | — | — |
| M. O'Hara | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mikael Mandron | F | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 19% | — | — | — |
| J. Ayunga | F | 68 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 16% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Scott Tanser | D | 31 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
Aberdeen — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 49 | 30% | — | — | — | |
| Liam Morrison | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 52 | 48% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jack Milne | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 24% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Gyamfi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Graeme Shinnie | M | 65 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | 5 | — | — |
| Aremu Afeez | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Jensen | M | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| Kenan Bilalovic | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| Marko Lazetić | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| Topi Keskinen | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin Nisbet | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Lyall Cameron | M | 25 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Armstrong | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 37 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Toyosi Olusanya | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of ST Mirren vs Aberdeen?
The final score was ST Mirren 2–0 Aberdeen.
What did the model predict before ST Mirren vs Aberdeen?
The model assigned 50% probability to a ST Mirren win, 29% to a draw, and 19% to an Aberdeen win.