World Cup - Qual. Europe
· Final
March 31, 2026 20:45
A. Elanga
(ast. Y. Ayari)
19'
G. Lagerbielke
(ast. B. Nygren)
44'
V. Gyokeres
88'
33'
(ast. P. Zielinski)
N. Zalewski
55'
(ast. N. Zalewski)
K. Swiderski
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Poland a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Sweden 33%). The final result was Sweden 3–2 Poland.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
7
1.52
Actual xG
1.36
5
Saves
2
33%
Possession
67%
2
Corners
9
10
Tackles
7
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽A. Elanga
· ast. Y. Ayari
19'
33'
ast. P. Zielinski ·
N. Zalewski⚽
43'
Jakub Kiwior
⚽G. Lagerbielke
· ast. B. Nygren
44'
55'
ast. N. Zalewski ·
K. Swiderski⚽
Jesper Karlström
62'
63'
O. Pietuszewski
/
K. Swiderski
65'
Oskar Pietuszewski
A. Elanga
/ L. Bergvall
69'
J. Karlstrom
/ B. Zeneli
69'
Lucas Bergvall
76'
B. Nygren
/ G. Lundgren
81'
⚽V. Gyokeres
88'
90'+1
K. Grosicki
/
M. Cash
90'+2
K. Piatek
/
N. Zalewski
Y. Ayari
/ M. Svanberg
90'+2
90'+4
Krzysztof Piątek
Pre-match prediction
33.23%
Sweden ←
32.77%
X
34.0%
Poland
we assigned to the actual result (Sweden)
33.23%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.98
1.52
+0.54
1.61
1.36
-0.25
xG dominance was balanced (1.52 – 1.36).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
G
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
G
3
Victor Lindelöf
D
Victor Lindelöf
D
15
D
2
Gustaf Lagerbielke
1 ⚽
D
Gustaf Lagerbielke
1 ⚽
D
5
G. Gudmundsson
M
16
Jesper Karlström
69'
M
18
Y. Ayari
1 👟
89'
M
8
D. Svensson
M
10
Benjamin Nygren
1 👟
81'
F
Benjamin Nygren
1 👟
81'
F
11
Anthony Elanga
1 ⚽
69'
F
Anthony Elanga
1 ⚽
69'
F
17
V. Gyökeres
1 ⚽
F
V. Gyökeres
1 ⚽
F
Bench
22
Besfort Zeneli
21'
M
Besfort Zeneli
21'
M
13
E. Stroud
M
20
H. Larsson
M
7
Lucas Bergvall
21'
M
Lucas Bergvall
21'
M
19
M. Svanberg
1'
M
21
Taha Ali
M
4
V. Eriksson
D
6
Williot Swedberg
M
Williot Swedberg
M
1
G
14
Jakub Kiwior
D
Jakub Kiwior
D
5
J. Bednarek
D
J. Bednarek
D
3
P. Wiśniewski
D
P. Wiśniewski
D
21
Nicola Zalewski
1 ⚽
1 👟
89'
M
Nicola Zalewski
1 ⚽
1 👟
89'
M
10
Piotr Zieliński
1 👟
M
Piotr Zieliński
1 👟
M
20
Sebastian Szymański
M
Sebastian Szymański
M
2
Matty Cash
89'
M
Matty Cash
89'
M
13
Jakub Kamiński
F
Jakub Kamiński
F
7
Karol Świderski
1 ⚽
63'
F
Karol Świderski
1 ⚽
63'
F
9
R. Lewandowski
F
R. Lewandowski
F
Bench
22
Bartłomiej Drągowski
G
6
Bartosz Slisz
M
Bartosz Slisz
M
18
B. Bereszynski
D
17
F. Rozga
8
Jakub Moder
M
16
Jan Ziółkowski
D
Jan Ziółkowski
D
11
Kamil Grosicki
1'
M
23
K. Piątek
1'
F
K. Piątek
1'
F
19
Michał Skóraś
F
Michał Skóraś
F
15
Oskar Pietuszewski
27'
F
Oskar Pietuszewski
27'
F
4
Tomasz Kędziora
D
Tomasz Kędziora
D
Best on the pitch
Nicola Zalewski
M · Poland
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 33 pass
Gustaf Lagerbielke
D · Sweden
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 39 pass
Piotr Zieliński
M · Poland
7.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 85 pass
Lucas Bergvall
M · Sweden
7.30
1 shots
· 4 pass
Jakub Kamiński
F · Poland
7.30
3 shots
· 24 pass
Karol Świderski
F · Poland
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 20 pass
Sweden — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristoffer Nordfeldt | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 20 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Victor Lindelöf | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 25% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| Gustaf Lagerbielke | D | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 39 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Gudmundsson | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Jesper Karlström | M | 69 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| Y. Ayari | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 23 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Svensson | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Benjamin Nygren | F | 81 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 18 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Anthony Elanga | F | 69 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Besfort Zeneli | M | 21 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Bergvall | M | 21 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Svanberg | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Poland — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 27 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Jakub Kiwior | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 57 | 49% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Bednarek | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 61 | 56% | — | — | — |
| P. Wiśniewski | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicola Zalewski | M | 89 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Piotr Zieliński | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 85 | 78% | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Szymański | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 56 | 49% | 3 | — | — |
| Matty Cash | M | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 54 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| Jakub Kamiński | F | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Karol Świderski | F | 63 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 20 | 15% | — | — | — |
| R. Lewandowski | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Kamil Grosicki | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| K. Piątek | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Oskar Pietuszewski | F | 27 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sweden vs Poland?
The final score was Sweden 3–2 Poland.
What did the model predict before Sweden vs Poland?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Sweden win, 32% to a draw, and 34% to an Poland win.