World Cup - Qual. Europe
· Final
March 31, 2026 20:45
A. Elanga
(ast. Y. Ayari)
19'
G. Lagerbielke
(ast. B. Nygren)
44'
V. Gyokeres
88'
33'
(ast. P. Zielinski)
N. Zalewski
55'
(ast. N. Zalewski)
K. Swiderski
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Poland a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Sweden 33%). The final result was Sweden 3–2 Poland. In 1 previous meetings, Sweden have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Poland.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
7
1.52
Actual xG
1.36
5
Saves
2
33%
Possession
67%
2
Corners
9
10
Tackles
7
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽A. Elanga
· ast. Y. Ayari
19'
33'
ast. P. Zielinski ·
N. Zalewski⚽
43'
Jakub Kiwior
⚽G. Lagerbielke
· ast. B. Nygren
44'
55'
ast. N. Zalewski ·
K. Swiderski⚽
Jesper Karlström
62'
63'
O. Pietuszewski
/
K. Swiderski
65'
Oskar Pietuszewski
A. Elanga
/ L. Bergvall
69'
J. Karlstrom
/ B. Zeneli
69'
Lucas Bergvall
76'
B. Nygren
/ G. Lundgren
81'
⚽V. Gyokeres
88'
90'+1
K. Grosicki
/
M. Cash
90'+2
K. Piatek
/
N. Zalewski
Y. Ayari
/ M. Svanberg
90'+2
90'+4
Krzysztof Piątek
Pre-match prediction
33.23%
Sweden ←
32.77%
X
34.0%
Poland
we assigned to the actual result (Sweden)
33.23%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.98
1.52
+0.54
1.61
1.36
-0.25
xG dominance was balanced (1.52 – 1.36).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
K. Nordfeldt
G
K. Nordfeldt
G
3
V. Lindelöf
D
V. Lindelöf
D
15
D
2
G. Lagerbielke
1 ⚽
D
G. Lagerbielke
1 ⚽
D
5
G. Gudmundsson
M
G. Gudmundsson
M
16
J. Karlström
69'
M
J. Karlström
69'
M
18
Y. Ayari
1 👟
89'
M
Y. Ayari
1 👟
89'
M
8
D. Svensson
M
D. Svensson
M
10
B. Nygren
1 👟
81'
F
B. Nygren
1 👟
81'
F
11
A. Elanga
1 ⚽
69'
F
A. Elanga
1 ⚽
69'
F
17
V. Gyökeres
1 ⚽
F
V. Gyökeres
1 ⚽
F
Bench
22
B. Zeneli
21'
M
B. Zeneli
21'
M
13
E. Stroud
M
E. Stroud
M
20
H. Larsson
M
H. Larsson
M
7
L. Bergvall
21'
M
L. Bergvall
21'
M
19
M. Svanberg
1'
M
M. Svanberg
1'
M
21
T. Ali
M
T. Ali
M
4
V. Eriksson
D
V. Eriksson
D
6
W. Swedberg
M
W. Swedberg
M
1
G
14
J. Kiwior
D
J. Kiwior
D
5
J. Bednarek
D
J. Bednarek
D
3
P. Wiśniewski
D
P. Wiśniewski
D
21
N. Zalewski
1 ⚽
1 👟
89'
M
N. Zalewski
1 ⚽
1 👟
89'
M
10
P. Zieliński
1 👟
M
P. Zieliński
1 👟
M
20
S. Szymański
M
S. Szymański
M
2
M. Cash
89'
M
M. Cash
89'
M
13
J. Kamiński
F
J. Kamiński
F
7
K. Świderski
1 ⚽
63'
F
K. Świderski
1 ⚽
63'
F
9
R. Lewandowski
F
R. Lewandowski
F
Bench
18
B. Bereszyński
D
B. Bereszyński
D
22
B. Drągowski
G
B. Drągowski
G
6
B. Slisz
M
B. Slisz
M
17
F. Rózga
F. Rózga
8
Jakub Moder
M
16
Jan Ziółkowski
D
Jan Ziółkowski
D
11
K. Grosicki
1'
M
K. Grosicki
1'
M
23
K. Piątek
1'
F
K. Piątek
1'
F
19
M. Skóraś
F
M. Skóraś
F
15
O. Pietuszewski
27'
F
O. Pietuszewski
27'
F
4
T. Kędziora
D
T. Kędziora
D
Best on the pitch
N. Zalewski
M · Poland
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 33 pass
G. Lagerbielke
D · Sweden
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 39 pass
P. Zieliński
M · Poland
7.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 85 pass
L. Bergvall
M · Sweden
7.30
1 shots
· 4 pass
J. Kamiński
F · Poland
7.30
3 shots
· 24 pass
K. Świderski
F · Poland
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 20 pass
Sweden — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Nordfeldt | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 20 | 8% | — | — | — |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 25% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| G. Lagerbielke | D | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 39 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Gudmundsson | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Karlström | M | 69 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| Y. Ayari | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 23 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Svensson | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Nygren | F | 81 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 18 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Elanga | F | 69 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| B. Zeneli | M | 21 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| L. Bergvall | M | 21 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Svanberg | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Poland — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 27 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| J. Kiwior | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 57 | 49% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Bednarek | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 61 | 56% | — | — | — |
| P. Wiśniewski | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Zalewski | M | 89 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 30% | — | — | — |
| P. Zieliński | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 85 | 78% | — | — | — |
| S. Szymański | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 56 | 49% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Cash | M | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 54 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Kamiński | F | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| K. Świderski | F | 63 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 20 | 15% | — | — | — |
| R. Lewandowski | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| K. Grosicki | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| K. Piątek | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| O. Pietuszewski | F | 27 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sweden vs Poland?
The final score was Sweden 3–2 Poland.
What did the model predict before Sweden vs Poland?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Sweden win, 32% to a draw, and 34% to an Poland win.