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MLS · Regular Season - 10 April 25, 2026 21:00
Toronto FC
#10 · 14 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Atlanta United FC
#14 · 10 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Toronto FC, result Atlanta United FC vince
E. Aristizabal (ast. K. Franklin) 71'
48' A. Miranchuk
67' T. Muyumba

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toronto FC a 52% win probability (draw 24%, Atlanta United FC 23%). The final result was Toronto FC 1–2 Atlanta United FC.

Match statistics
5
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
2
0.64
Actual xG
0.61
0
Saves
1
51%
Possession
49%
8
Corners
7
13
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
↕ B. Kuscevic / L. Stefanovic
20'
22'
27'
E. Latte Lath / C. Togashi ↕
↕ J. Cifuentes / D. Etienne
30'
38'
S. Gregersen
45'+2
C. Sanchez
48'
A. Miranchuk⚽
59'
F. Picault / L. Brennan ↕
67'
T. Muyumba⚽
⚽E. Aristizabal · ast. K. Franklin
71'
↕ A. Coello / A. Bossenberry
72'
↕ J. Sargent / J. Vilsaint
72'
↕ E. Aristizabal / M. Henry
72'
77'
W. Reilly / A. Miranchuk ↕
77'
M. Galarza / C. Sanchez ↕
Pre-match prediction
52.03%
Toronto
24.89%
X
23.08%
Atlanta ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Atlanta United FC) 23.08% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Toronto
2.23
0.64
-1.59
Atlanta
0.97
0.61
-0.36
xG dominance was balanced (0.64 – 0.61). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 12 29
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 12 27
2 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 13 29
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 13 25
3 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 11 24
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 12 22
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 12 20
4 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 12 22
5 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 13 21
5 New York City FC New York City FC 13 18
6 Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 13 21
6 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 13 18
7 DC United DC United 13 16
7 FC Dallas FC Dallas 13 19
8 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 12 18
8 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 13 16
9 Charlotte Charlotte 13 15
9 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 13 16
10 San Diego San Diego 13 16
10 Toronto FC Toronto FC 12 14
11 CF Montreal CF Montreal 12 13
11 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 13 16
12 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 13 13
12 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 12 14
13 Austin Austin 13 14
13 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 13 12
14 St. Louis City St. Louis City 12 12
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 12 10
15 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 12 8
15 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 13 6
Lineups
Toronto FC Toronto FC 4-1-4-1
1
L. Gavran G 6.20
44
Raheem Edwards D 5.70
13
Benjamin Kuscevic 20' D 7.20
12
Zane Monlouis D 6.90
19
K. Franklin 1 👟 D 6.30
14
A. Coello 72' M 6.60
20
D. Salloi M 6.30
21
Jonathan Osorio M 7.20
8
J. Cifuentes 30' M 6.60
17
E. Aristizabal 1 ⚽ 72' M 7.20
9
J. Sargent 72' F 6.50
Bench
11
Derrick Etienne Junior 60' F 7.00
76
L. Stefanovic 70' D 6.60
71
M. Cimermancic M
78
M. Henry 18' M 6.70
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 4-1-4-1
1 Lucas Hoyos Lucas Hoyos G 6.50
3 Elías Báez Elías Báez D 6.30
6 Juan Berrocal Juan Berrocal D 6.30
5 Stian Gregersen Stian Gregersen D 6.50
47 Matthew Edwards Matthew Edwards D 6.90
8 Tristan Muyumba Tristan Muyumba 1 ⚽ M 7.90
20 Luke Brennan Luke Brennan 59' M 6.20
35 Ajani Fortune Ajani Fortune M 6.60
48 Cooper Sanchez Cooper Sanchez 77' M 6.00
59 Aleksey Miranchuk Aleksey Miranchuk 1 ⚽ 77' M 7.70
30 Cayman Togashi Cayman Togashi 27' F 6.50
Bench
9 Emmanuel Latte Lath Emmanuel Latte Lath 63' F 6.20
4 Enea Mihaj Enea Mihaj D
22
F. Picault 31' F 6.30
88 Matías Galarza Matías Galarza 13' M 6.90
18 Pedro Amador Pedro Amador D
11 Saba Lobzhanidze Saba Lobzhanidze F
28 William Reilly William Reilly 13' M 6.90
Best on the pitch
Tristan Muyumba
Tristan Muyumba
M · Atlanta
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 47 pass
Aleksey Miranchuk
Aleksey Miranchuk
M · Atlanta
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots · 31 pass
Benjamin Kuscevic
D · Toronto
7.20
· 15 pass
Jonathan Osorio
M · Toronto
7.20
· 53 pass
E. Aristizabal
M · Toronto
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 12 pass
Derrick Etienne Junior
F · Toronto
7.00
· 21 pass
Toronto FC Toronto FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Gavran G 90 6.20 — — — 34 22% — — —
Raheem Edwards D 90 5.70 — — — 36 25% 1 — —
Benjamin Kuscevic D 20 7.20 — — — 15 14% 1 — —
Zane Monlouis D 90 6.90 — — 1 66 57% — — —
K. Franklin D 90 6.30 — 1 — 41 35% 3 — —
A. Coello M 72 6.60 — — 1 32 23% — — —
D. Salloi M 90 6.30 — — — 21 16% — — —
Jonathan Osorio M 90 7.20 — — — 53 47% 3 — —
J. Cifuentes M 30 6.60 — — — 10 7% 1 — —
E. Aristizabal M 72 7.20 1 — 2 12 8% — — —
J. Sargent F 72 6.50 — — 1 16 13% — — —
Derrick Etienne Junior F 60 7.00 — — — 21 15% — — —
L. Stefanovic D 70 6.60 — — — 60 50% 4 — —
M. Henry M 18 6.70 — — — 11 8% — — —
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Lucas Hoyos G 90 6.50 — — — 34 18% — — —
Elías Báez D 90 6.30 — — — 34 32% — — —
Juan Berrocal D 90 6.30 — — — 57 50% — — —
Stian Gregersen D 90 6.50 — — — 50 43% 1 1 —
Matthew Edwards D 90 6.90 — — — 43 35% 1 — —
Tristan Muyumba M 90 7.90 1 — 1 47 40% 4 — —
Luke Brennan M 59 6.20 — — — 20 15% 1 — —
Ajani Fortune M 90 6.60 — — 1 35 29% 2 — —
Cooper Sanchez M 77 6.00 — — 1 37 30% — 1 —
Aleksey Miranchuk M 77 7.70 1 — 2 31 24% — — —
Cayman Togashi F 27 6.50 — — — 3 1% — — —
Emmanuel Latte Lath F 63 6.20 — — — 9 9% — — —
F. Picault F 31 6.30 — — — 13 8% — — —
Matías Galarza M 13 6.90 — — — 11 9% 1 — —
William Reilly M 13 6.90 — — — 12 11% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC?
The final score was Toronto FC 1–2 Atlanta United FC.
What did the model predict before Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC?
The model assigned 52% probability to a Toronto FC win, 24% to a draw, and 23% to an Atlanta United FC win.