MLS
· Regular Season - 10
April 25, 2026 19:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Toronto FC, result Atlanta United FC wins
E. Aristizabal
(ast. K. Franklin)
71'
48'
A. Miranchuk
67'
T. Muyumba
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toronto FC a 52% win probability (draw 24%, Atlanta United FC 23%). The final result was Toronto FC 1–2 Atlanta United FC.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
2
0.64
Actual xG
0.61
0
Saves
1
51%
Possession
49%
8
Corners
7
13
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
B. Kuscevic
/ L. Stefanovic
20'
22'
27'
E. Latte Lath
/
C. Togashi
J. Cifuentes
/ D. Etienne
30'
38'
S. Gregersen
45'+2
C. Sanchez
48'
A. Miranchuk⚽
59'
F. Picault
/
L. Brennan
67'
T. Muyumba⚽
⚽E. Aristizabal
· ast. K. Franklin
71'
A. Coello
/ A. Bossenberry
72'
J. Sargent
/ J. Vilsaint
72'
E. Aristizabal
/ M. Henry
72'
77'
W. Reilly
/
A. Miranchuk
77'
M. Galarza
/
C. Sanchez
Pre-match prediction
52.03%
Toronto
24.89%
X
23.08%
Atlanta ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atlanta United FC)
23.08%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.23
0.64
-1.59
0.97
0.61
-0.36
xG dominance was balanced (0.64 – 0.61).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
L. Gavran
G
L. Gavran
G
44
R. Edwards
D
R. Edwards
D
13
B. Kuscevic
20'
D
B. Kuscevic
20'
D
12
Z. Monlouis
D
Z. Monlouis
D
19
K. Franklin
1 👟
D
K. Franklin
1 👟
D
14
Alonso Coello
72'
M
Alonso Coello
72'
M
20
D. Sallói
M
D. Sallói
M
21
J. Osorio
M
J. Osorio
M
8
J. Cifuentes
30'
M
17
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
1 ⚽
72'
M
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
1 ⚽
72'
M
9
J. Sargent
72'
F
J. Sargent
72'
F
Bench
11
D. Etienne
60'
F
D. Etienne
60'
F
76
L. Stefanovic
70'
D
L. Stefanovic
70'
D
78
Malik Henry
18'
M
Malik Henry
18'
M
71
M. Cimermancic
M
M. Cimermancic
M
1
L. Hoyos
G
L. Hoyos
G
3
E. Báez
D
E. Báez
D
6
Juan Berrocal
D
Juan Berrocal
D
5
S. Gregersen
D
S. Gregersen
D
47
Matthew Edwards
D
Matthew Edwards
D
8
T. Muyumba
1 ⚽
M
T. Muyumba
1 ⚽
M
20
L. Brennan
59'
M
L. Brennan
59'
M
35
A. Fortune
M
A. Fortune
M
48
C. Sanchez
77'
M
C. Sanchez
77'
M
59
A. Miranchuk
1 ⚽
77'
M
A. Miranchuk
1 ⚽
77'
M
30
C. Togashi
27'
F
C. Togashi
27'
F
Bench
9
E. Latte Lath
63'
F
E. Latte Lath
63'
F
4
E. Mihaj
D
E. Mihaj
D
22
F. Picault
31'
F
F. Picault
31'
F
88
M. Galarza
13'
M
M. Galarza
13'
M
18
Pedro Amador
D
Pedro Amador
D
11
S. Lobzhanidze
F
S. Lobzhanidze
F
28
William Reilly
13'
M
William Reilly
13'
M
Best on the pitch
T. Muyumba
M · Atlanta
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 47 pass
A. Miranchuk
M · Atlanta
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 31 pass
B. Kuscevic
D · Toronto
7.20
· 15 pass
J. Osorio
M · Toronto
7.20
· 53 pass
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
M · Toronto
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 12 pass
D. Etienne
F · Toronto
7.00
· 21 pass
Toronto FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Gavran | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 22% | — | — | — |
| R. Edwards | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Kuscevic | D | 20 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Z. Monlouis | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 57% | — | — | — |
| K. Franklin | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 41 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| Alonso Coello | M | 72 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| D. Sallói | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| J. Osorio | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 53 | 47% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Cifuentes | M | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga | M | 72 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| J. Sargent | F | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| D. Etienne | F | 60 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| L. Stefanovic | D | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 60 | 50% | 4 | — | — |
| Malik Henry | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
Atlanta United FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Hoyos | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 34 | 18% | — | — | — |
| E. Báez | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Juan Berrocal | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | — | — | — |
| S. Gregersen | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 50 | 43% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Matthew Edwards | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Muyumba | M | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Brennan | M | 59 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Fortune | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Sanchez | M | 77 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 30% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Miranchuk | M | 77 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 31 | 24% | — | — | — |
| C. Togashi | F | 27 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| E. Latte Lath | F | 63 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| F. Picault | F | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 8% | — | — | — |
| M. Galarza | M | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| William Reilly | M | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC?
The final score was Toronto FC 1–2 Atlanta United FC.
What did the model predict before Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC?
The model assigned 52% probability to a Toronto FC win, 24% to a draw, and 23% to an Atlanta United FC win.