MLS
· Regular Season - 10
April 25, 2026 19:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Toronto FC, result Atlanta United FC wins
E. Aristizabal
(ast. K. Franklin)
71'
48'
A. Miranchuk
67'
T. Muyumba
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toronto FC a 52% win probability (draw 24%, Atlanta United FC 23%). The final result was Toronto FC 1–2 Atlanta United FC.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
2
0.64
Actual xG
0.61
0
Saves
1
51%
Possession
49%
8
Corners
7
13
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
B. Kuscevic
/ L. Stefanovic
20'
22'
27'
E. Latte Lath
/
C. Togashi
J. Cifuentes
/ D. Etienne
30'
38'
S. Gregersen
45'+2
C. Sanchez
48'
A. Miranchuk⚽
59'
F. Picault
/
L. Brennan
67'
T. Muyumba⚽
⚽E. Aristizabal
· ast. K. Franklin
71'
A. Coello
/ A. Bossenberry
72'
J. Sargent
/ J. Vilsaint
72'
E. Aristizabal
/ M. Henry
72'
77'
W. Reilly
/
A. Miranchuk
77'
M. Galarza
/
C. Sanchez
Pre-match prediction
52.03%
Toronto
24.89%
X
23.08%
Atlanta ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atlanta United FC)
23.08%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.23
0.64
-1.59
0.97
0.61
-0.36
xG dominance was balanced (0.64 – 0.61).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Luka Gavran
G
Luka Gavran
G
44
R. Edwards
D
R. Edwards
D
13
Benjamin Kuscevic
20'
D
Benjamin Kuscevic
20'
D
12
Zane Monlouis
D
Zane Monlouis
D
19
Kobe Franklin
1 👟
D
Kobe Franklin
1 👟
D
14
Alonso Coello
72'
M
Alonso Coello
72'
M
20
Dániel Sallói
M
Dániel Sallói
M
21
Jonathan Osorio
M
Jonathan Osorio
M
8
J. Cifuentes
30'
M
17
Emilio Aristizábal
1 ⚽
72'
M
Emilio Aristizábal
1 ⚽
72'
M
9
Josh Sargent
72'
F
Josh Sargent
72'
F
Bench
11
Derrick Etienne
60'
F
Derrick Etienne
60'
F
76
L. Stefanovic
70'
D
78
Malik Henry
18'
M
Malik Henry
18'
M
71
M. Cimermancic
M
1
Lucas Hoyos
G
Lucas Hoyos
G
3
Elías Báez
D
Elías Báez
D
6
Juan Berrocal
D
Juan Berrocal
D
5
Stian Gregersen
D
Stian Gregersen
D
47
Matthew Edwards
D
Matthew Edwards
D
8
Tristan Muyumba
1 ⚽
M
Tristan Muyumba
1 ⚽
M
20
Luke Brennan
59'
M
Luke Brennan
59'
M
35
Ajani Fortune
M
Ajani Fortune
M
48
Cooper Sanchez
77'
M
Cooper Sanchez
77'
M
59
Aleksey Miranchuk
1 ⚽
77'
M
Aleksey Miranchuk
1 ⚽
77'
M
30
Cayman Togashi
27'
F
Cayman Togashi
27'
F
Bench
9
Emmanuel Latte Lath
63'
F
Emmanuel Latte Lath
63'
F
4
Enea Mihaj
D
Enea Mihaj
D
22
Fafà Picault
31'
F
Fafà Picault
31'
F
88
M. Galarza
13'
M
M. Galarza
13'
M
18
Pedro Amador
D
Pedro Amador
D
11
Saba Lobzhanidze
F
Saba Lobzhanidze
F
28
William Reilly
13'
M
William Reilly
13'
M
Best on the pitch
Tristan Muyumba
M · Atlanta
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 47 pass
Aleksey Miranchuk
M · Atlanta
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 31 pass
Benjamin Kuscevic
D · Toronto
7.20
· 15 pass
Jonathan Osorio
M · Toronto
7.20
· 53 pass
Emilio Aristizábal
M · Toronto
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 12 pass
Derrick Etienne
F · Toronto
7.00
· 21 pass
Toronto FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Gavran | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 22% | — | — | — |
| R. Edwards | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Benjamin Kuscevic | D | 20 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Zane Monlouis | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 57% | — | — | — |
| Kobe Franklin | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 41 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| Alonso Coello | M | 72 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Dániel Sallói | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Osorio | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 53 | 47% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Cifuentes | M | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal | M | 72 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Josh Sargent | F | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Derrick Etienne | F | 60 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| L. Stefanovic | D | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 60 | 50% | 4 | — | — |
| Malik Henry | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
Atlanta United FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Hoyos | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 34 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Elías Báez | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Juan Berrocal | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | — | — | — |
| Stian Gregersen | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 50 | 43% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Matthew Edwards | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Tristan Muyumba | M | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | 4 | — | — |
| Luke Brennan | M | 59 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Ajani Fortune | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| Cooper Sanchez | M | 77 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 30% | — | 1 | — |
| Aleksey Miranchuk | M | 77 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 31 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Cayman Togashi | F | 27 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Latte Lath | F | 63 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Fafà Picault | F | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 8% | — | — | — |
| M. Galarza | M | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| William Reilly | M | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC?
The final score was Toronto FC 1–2 Atlanta United FC.
What did the model predict before Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC?
The model assigned 52% probability to a Toronto FC win, 24% to a draw, and 23% to an Atlanta United FC win.