Waterford - Derry City
Premier Division
May 15, 2026 20:45
⚡ Pre-match analysis
24.76%
Win
Waterford
30.54%
Draw
44.69%
Win
Derry City
0.9
1.31
Expected xG
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Derry City a 44% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Waterford. Expected goals are 0.9 for Waterford and 1.3 for Derry City (total 2.2), with a 70% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 14.3% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Waterford have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Derry City.
Score Matrix
↕ Waterford
Derry City →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9% | 14.3% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 12.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | — |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Waterford
Attack
28
Defence
48
Form
29
Derry City
Attack
34
Defence
69
Form
46
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
0
Draw
1
L
27 Feb 2026
2–4
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Shamrock Rovers
|
16 | 34 |
| 2 |
St Patrick's Athl.
|
16 | 31 |
| 3 |
Bohemians
|
16 | 25 |
| 4 |
Dundalk
|
16 | 22 |
| 5 |
Derry City
|
16 | 19 |
| 6 |
Drogheda United
|
15 | 19 |
| 7 |
Shelbourne
|
15 | 18 |
| 8 |
Galway United
|
15 | 17 |
| 9 |
Sligo Rovers
|
16 | 16 |
| 10 |
Waterford
|
15 | 6 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Waterford vs Derry City?
The model gives Waterford a 24% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 44% for an Derry City win.
How many goals are expected in Waterford vs Derry City?
Expected goals: Waterford 0.9, Derry City 1.3 (total 2.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 70%.
What is the most likely score in Waterford vs Derry City?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.3%.