← Premier Division

Waterford - Derry City

Premier Division May 15, 2026 20:45
#10 · 6 pts
vs
#5 · 19 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
24.76%
Win
Waterford
30.54%
Draw
44.69%
Win
Derry City
0.9
Expected xG
1.31

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Derry City a 44% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Waterford. Expected goals are 0.9 for Waterford and 1.3 for Derry City (total 2.2), with a 70% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 14.3% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Waterford have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Derry City.

Score Matrix
↕ Waterford Derry City →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.9% 14.3% 9.4% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4%
1 9.9% 12.9% 8.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3%
2 4.5% 5.8% 3.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.1%
Recent form
L St Patrick's Athl. 4–1
D Dundalk 3–3
L Shamrock Rovers 1–0
D Galway United 1–1
L Sligo Rovers 2–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 20%
L Drogheda United 1–0
D Galway United 1–1
D Bohemians 1–1
W Shamrock Rovers 1–0
W Shelbourne 1–2
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 26%
Playing profile
Waterford Waterford
Attack
28
Defence
48
Form
29
Derry City Derry City
Attack
34
Defence
69
Form
46
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Waterford
0
Draw
1
Derry City
L 27 Feb 2026 Premier Division 2–4
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 16 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 16 31
3 Bohemians Bohemians 16 25
4 Dundalk Dundalk 16 22
5 Derry City Derry City 16 19
6 Drogheda United Drogheda United 15 19
7 Shelbourne Shelbourne 15 18
8 Galway United Galway United 15 17
9 Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers 16 16
10 Waterford Waterford 15 6
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Waterford vs Derry City?
The model gives Waterford a 24% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 44% for an Derry City win.
How many goals are expected in Waterford vs Derry City?
Expected goals: Waterford 0.9, Derry City 1.3 (total 2.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 70%.
What is the most likely score in Waterford vs Derry City?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.3%.