Premier Division
· Regular Season - 17
May 15, 2026 20:45
T. Lonergan
59'
(pen.)
K. Long
(ast. B. Couto)
81'
19'
(ast. J. Clarke)
K. Santos
90'+4
(ast. B. Fleming)
H. Rylah
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derry City a 44% win probability (draw 30%, Waterford 24%). The final result was Waterford 2–2 Derry City. In 3 previous meetings, Waterford have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Derry City.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
6
7
Shots on target
3
2.14
Actual xG
0.42
2
Saves
5
38%
Possession
62%
4
Corners
3
16
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
19'
ast. J. Clarke ·
K. Santos⚽
J. Houston
/ D. McMenamy
25'
L. Heeney
34'
B. Couto
38'
42'
A. O'Reilly
⚽T. Lonergan
(pen.)
59'
60'
J. Thomas
/
D. Akinyemi
62'
J. Stott
71'
C. Dummigan
/
K. Santos
⚽K. Long
· ast. B. Couto
81'
83'
H. Rylah
/
J. Clarke
83'
D. Markey
/
M. Duffy
C. Noonan
/ J. Voilas
86'
T. Lonergan
/ C. Barrett
90'+1
90'+4
ast. B. Fleming ·
H. Rylah⚽
Pre-match prediction
24.76%
Waterford
30.54%
X ←
44.69%
Derry
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
30.54%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.90
2.14
+1.24
1.31
0.42
-0.89
Waterford dominated by xG (2.14 vs 0.42).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
S. McMullan
G
S. McMullan
G
3
Benny Couto
1 👟
D
Benny Couto
1 👟
D
13
K. Long
1 ⚽
D
K. Long
1 ⚽
D
5
J. Mahon
D
J. Mahon
D
16
H. Cann
D
H. Cann
D
2
J. Houston
25'
D
50
L. Heeney
M
L. Heeney
M
4
Will Johnson
M
Will Johnson
M
10
C. Noonan
86'
M
C. Noonan
86'
M
18
T. Lonergan
1 ⚽
F
T. Lonergan
1 ⚽
F
9
P. Amond
F
P. Amond
F
Bench
21
Arlo Ricky Hugh Doherty
G
Arlo Ricky Hugh Doherty
G
6
Cian Barrett
D
Cian Barrett
D
7
Conor Carty
F
Conor Carty
F
27
D. McMenamy
66'
M
D. McMenamy
66'
M
14
J. Dempsey
D
J. Dempsey
D
17
J. Faria
M
J. Faria
M
20
J. Voilås
5'
F
J. Voilås
5'
F
22
Ronan Mansfield
F
Ronan Mansfield
F
11
T. Coyle
F
T. Coyle
F
13
E. Beach
G
E. Beach
G
19
B. Fleming
1 👟
D
B. Fleming
1 👟
D
4
J. Stott
D
J. Stott
D
22
C. Barr
D
C. Barr
D
2
B. Cotter
D
15
J. Clarke
1 👟
83'
M
J. Clarke
1 👟
83'
M
28
J. Olayinka
M
J. Olayinka
M
8
A. O'Reilly
M
A. O'Reilly
M
7
M. Duffy
83'
F
M. Duffy
83'
F
9
Afolabi Akinyemi
60'
F
Afolabi Akinyemi
60'
F
21
Kévin Santos
1 ⚽
71'
F
Kévin Santos
1 ⚽
71'
F
Bench
25
A. Bannon
D
14
B. Doherty
D
31
Callum Downey
M
Callum Downey
M
20
Carl Winchester
M
23
C. Dummigan
20'
D
C. Dummigan
20'
D
10
D. Markey
8'
M
D. Markey
8'
M
24
Henry Rylah
1 ⚽
8'
M
Henry Rylah
1 ⚽
8'
M
17
Joshua Thomas
31'
F
Joshua Thomas
31'
F
26
Shea Callister
G
Best on the pitch
T. Lonergan
F · Waterford
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 28 pass
K. Long
D · Waterford
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
E. Beach
G · Derry
7.30
· 34 pass
J. Mahon
D · Waterford
7.20
1 shots
· 15 pass
Kévin Santos
F · Derry
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 24 pass
Will Johnson
M · Waterford
7.20
1 shots
· 26 pass
Waterford — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. McMullan | G | 91 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Benny Couto | D | 91 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| K. Long | D | 91 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| J. Mahon | D | 91 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 8% | 4 | — | — |
| H. Cann | D | 91 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Houston | D | 25 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Heeney | M | 91 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Will Johnson | M | 91 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 14% | 6 | — | — |
| C. Noonan | M | 86 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Lonergan | F | 91 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 4 | 28 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Amond | F | 91 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 10% | — | — | — |
| D. McMenamy | M | 66 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Voilås | F | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Derry City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Beach | G | 91 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 18% | — | — | — |
| B. Fleming | D | 91 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 48 | 36% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Stott | D | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 40% | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Barr | D | 91 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Cotter | D | 91 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Clarke | M | 83 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 24 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Olayinka | M | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| A. O'Reilly | M | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Duffy | F | 83 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Afolabi Akinyemi | F | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Kévin Santos | F | 71 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 24 | 19% | — | — | — |
| C. Dummigan | D | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Markey | M | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Henry Rylah | M | 8 | 6.50 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joshua Thomas | F | 31 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Waterford vs Derry City?
The final score was Waterford 2–2 Derry City.
What did the model predict before Waterford vs Derry City?
The model assigned 24% probability to a Waterford win, 30% to a draw, and 44% to an Derry City win.