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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 32 May 03, 2026 15:30
FC St. Pauli
#18 · 26 pts
1 – 2
Final score
FSV Mainz 05
#10 · 37 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FSV Mainz 05
A. Ceesay (ast. M. Kaars) 87'
6' (ast. S. Becker) P. Tietz
40' (ast. S. Widmer) P. Mwene

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 58% win probability (draw 21%, FC St. Pauli 19%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 1–2 FSV Mainz 05. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
10
3
Shots on target
6
0.86
Actual xG
2.35
3
Saves
1
52%
Possession
48%
7
Corners
7
14
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
6'
ast. S. Becker · P. Tietz⚽
40'
ast. S. Widmer · P. Mwene⚽
↕ L. Ritzka / A. Dzwigala
46'
↕ D. Sinani / C. Metcalfe
46'
↕ E. Smith / A. Ceesay
65'
↕ A. Hountondji / M. Kaars
65'
68'
D. Batz
72'
A. Sieb / S. Becker ↕
76'
D. Kohr / K. Potulski ↕
77'
A. Caci / S. Widmer ↕
84'
L. Maloney / N. Amiri ↕
84'
N. Weiper / P. Tietz ↕
↕ J. Irvine / M. Rasmussen
84'
⚽A. Ceesay · ast. M. Kaars
87'
K. Mets
88'
C. Metcalfe
90'+1
A. Ceesay
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
19.87%
FC
21.57%
X
58.56%
FSV ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FSV Mainz 05) 58.56% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
0.82
0.86
+0.04
FSV
1.87
2.35
+0.48
FSV Mainz 05 dominated by xG (2.35 vs 0.86). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Lineups
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
22
G 6.20
3
K. Mets D 6.90
5
D 6.20
15
Tomoya Ando D 7.20
21
L. Ritzka 45' M 7.20
8
E. Smith 65' M 6.50
7
Jackson Irvine 84' M 6.90
11
M 6.30
16
J. Fujita F 7.00
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani 45' F 6.20
27
A. Hountondji 65' F 6.20
Bench
9
A. Ceesay 1 ⚽ 25' F 7.70
24
C. Metcalfe 45' M 6.70
23
L. Oppie D
19
M. Kaars 1 👟 25' F 6.90
20
M. Rasmussen 12' M 6.90
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
33 Daniel Batz Daniel Batz G 6.60
48 Kacper Potulski Kacper Potulski 76' D 7.00
4 Stefan Posch Stefan Posch D 7.00
21 Danny da Costa Danny da Costa D 7.00
2 Phillipp Mwene Phillipp Mwene 1 ⚽ M 8.20
10 Nadiem Amiri Nadiem Amiri 84' M 7.20
6 Kaishu Sano Kaishu Sano M 7.20
8 Paul Nebel Paul Nebel M 6.30
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer 1 👟 77' M 7.30
20 Phillip Tietz Phillip Tietz 1 ⚽ 84' F 7.20
23 S. Becker S. Becker 1 👟 72' F 6.50
Bench
19 Anthony Caci Anthony Caci 13' D 6.50
11 Armindo Sieb Armindo Sieb 18' F 6.30
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr 14' M 6.60
44 Nelson Weiper Nelson Weiper 12' F 6.70
22 Nikolas Veratschnig Nikolas Veratschnig D
27 Robin Zentner Robin Zentner G
24 Sota Kawasaki Sota Kawasaki M
Best on the pitch
Phillipp Mwene
Phillipp Mwene
M · FSV
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 26 pass
A. Ceesay
F · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 5 pass
S. Widmer
S. Widmer
M · FSV
7.30
1 👟
· 41 pass
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano
M · FSV
7.20
· 56 pass
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri
M · FSV
7.20
1 shots · 39 pass
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz
F · FSV
7.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 23 pass
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 20 16% — — —
K. Mets D 90 6.90 — — — 80 69% — 1 —
D 90 6.20 — — 1 73 65% — — —
Tomoya Ando D 90 7.20 — — 1 58 52% 2 — —
L. Ritzka M 45 7.20 — — 1 14 12% 3 — —
E. Smith M 65 6.50 — — — 42 31% 2 — —
Jackson Irvine M 84 6.90 — — 1 32 25% 1 — —
M 90 6.30 — — — 36 28% 2 — —
J. Fujita F 90 7.00 — — 1 35 31% 3 — —
D. Sinani F 45 6.20 — — — 19 13% — — —
A. Hountondji F 65 6.20 — — — 7 5% — — —
A. Ceesay F 25 7.70 1 — 1 5 4% — 1 —
C. Metcalfe M 45 6.70 — — 1 16 12% 1 1 —
M. Kaars F 25 6.90 — 1 1 10 8% — — —
M. Rasmussen M 12 6.90 — — — 5 5% — — —
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniel Batz G 90 6.60 — — — 32 21% — 1 —
Kacper Potulski D 76 7.00 — — — 40 34% 3 — —
Stefan Posch D 90 7.00 — — 1 63 52% 3 — —
Danny da Costa D 90 7.00 — — 1 60 51% 2 — —
Phillipp Mwene M 90 8.20 1 — 3 26 19% 1 — —
Nadiem Amiri M 84 7.20 — — 1 39 32% 1 — —
Kaishu Sano M 90 7.20 — — — 56 48% — — —
Paul Nebel M 90 6.30 — — — 41 36% 2 — —
S. Widmer M 77 7.30 — 1 — 41 38% 2 — —
Phillip Tietz F 84 7.20 1 — 3 23 13% — — —
S. Becker F 72 6.50 — 1 1 12 9% — — —
Anthony Caci D 13 6.50 — — — 11 8% 1 — —
Armindo Sieb F 18 6.30 — — — 8 5% — — —
D. Kohr M 14 6.60 — — — 5 5% — — —
Nelson Weiper F 12 6.70 — — — 4 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 1–2 FSV Mainz 05.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
The model assigned 19% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 21% to a draw, and 58% to an FSV Mainz 05 win.