✓Model correct — prediction FSV Mainz 05
A. Ceesay
(ast. M. Kaars)
87'
6'
(ast. S. Becker)
P. Tietz
40'
(ast. S. Widmer)
P. Mwene
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 58% win probability (draw 21%, FC St. Pauli 19%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 1–2 FSV Mainz 05. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
10
3
Shots on target
6
0.86
Actual xG
2.35
3
Saves
1
52%
Possession
48%
7
Corners
7
14
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
6'
ast. S. Becker ·
P. Tietz⚽
40'
ast. S. Widmer ·
P. Mwene⚽
L. Ritzka
/ A. Dzwigala
46'
D. Sinani
/ C. Metcalfe
46'
E. Smith
/ A. Ceesay
65'
A. Hountondji
/ M. Kaars
65'
68'
D. Batz
72'
A. Sieb
/
S. Becker
76'
D. Kohr
/
K. Potulski
77'
A. Caci
/
S. Widmer
84'
L. Maloney
/
N. Amiri
84'
N. Weiper
/
P. Tietz
J. Irvine
/ M. Rasmussen
84'
⚽A. Ceesay
· ast. M. Kaars
87'
K. Mets
88'
C. Metcalfe
90'+1
A. Ceesay
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
19.87%
FC
21.57%
X
58.56%
FSV ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (FSV Mainz 05)
58.56%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.82
0.86
+0.04
1.87
2.35
+0.48
FSV Mainz 05 dominated by xG (2.35 vs 0.86).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
22
G
3
Karol Mets
D
Karol Mets
D
5
D
15
Tomoya Ando
D
Tomoya Ando
D
21
Lars Ritzka
45'
M
Lars Ritzka
45'
M
8
Eric Smith
65'
M
Eric Smith
65'
M
7
Jackson Irvine
84'
M
Jackson Irvine
84'
M
11
M
16
Joel Chima Fujita
F
Joel Chima Fujita
F
10
D. Sinani
45'
F
D. Sinani
45'
F
27
Andreas Hountondji
65'
F
Andreas Hountondji
65'
F
Bench
9
Abdoulie Ceesay
1 ⚽
25'
F
Abdoulie Ceesay
1 ⚽
25'
F
24
Connor Metcalfe
45'
M
Connor Metcalfe
45'
M
23
Louis Oppie
D
Louis Oppie
D
19
Martijn Kaars
1 👟
25'
F
Martijn Kaars
1 👟
25'
F
20
Mathias Rasmussen
12'
M
Mathias Rasmussen
12'
M
33
Daniel Batz
G
Daniel Batz
G
48
Kacper Potulski
76'
D
4
S. Posch
D
S. Posch
D
21
Danny da Costa
D
Danny da Costa
D
2
Phillipp Mwene
1 ⚽
M
Phillipp Mwene
1 ⚽
M
10
N. Amiri
84'
M
N. Amiri
84'
M
6
Kaishu Sano
M
Kaishu Sano
M
8
P. Nebel
M
P. Nebel
M
30
S. Widmer
1 👟
77'
M
S. Widmer
1 👟
77'
M
20
Phillip Tietz
1 ⚽
84'
F
Phillip Tietz
1 ⚽
84'
F
23
S. Becker
1 👟
72'
F
S. Becker
1 👟
72'
F
Bench
19
Anthony Caci
13'
D
Anthony Caci
13'
D
11
Armindo Sieb
18'
F
Armindo Sieb
18'
F
31
D. Kohr
14'
M
D. Kohr
14'
M
44
Nelson Weiper
12'
F
Nelson Weiper
12'
F
22
Nikolas Veratschnig
D
Nikolas Veratschnig
D
27
Robin Zentner
G
Robin Zentner
G
24
Sota Kawasaki
M
Sota Kawasaki
M
Best on the pitch
Phillipp Mwene
M · FSV
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 26 pass
Abdoulie Ceesay
F · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 5 pass
S. Widmer
M · FSV
7.30
1 👟
· 41 pass
Kaishu Sano
M · FSV
7.20
· 56 pass
N. Amiri
M · FSV
7.20
1 shots
· 39 pass
Phillip Tietz
F · FSV
7.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 23 pass
FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | — | — | — | |
| Karol Mets | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 80 | 69% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 73 | 65% | — | — | — | |
| Tomoya Ando | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| Lars Ritzka | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Eric Smith | M | 65 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Jackson Irvine | M | 84 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 28% | 2 | — | — | |
| Joel Chima Fujita | F | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Sinani | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Andreas Hountondji | F | 65 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Abdoulie Ceesay | F | 25 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| Connor Metcalfe | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Martijn Kaars | F | 25 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Mathias Rasmussen | M | 12 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Batz | G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 21% | — | 1 | — |
| Kacper Potulski | D | 76 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 40 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Posch | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 52% | 3 | — | — |
| Danny da Costa | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 51% | 2 | — | — |
| Phillipp Mwene | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Amiri | M | 84 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Kaishu Sano | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 56 | 48% | — | — | — |
| P. Nebel | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Widmer | M | 77 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 41 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Phillip Tietz | F | 84 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 23 | 13% | — | — | — |
| S. Becker | F | 72 | 6.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Anthony Caci | D | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Armindo Sieb | F | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| D. Kohr | M | 14 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Nelson Weiper | F | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 1–2 FSV Mainz 05.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
The model assigned 19% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 21% to a draw, and 58% to an FSV Mainz 05 win.