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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 32 May 03, 2026 15:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli
1 – 2
Final score
FSV Mainz 05
#7 · 10 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FSV Mainz 05
A. Ceesay (ast. M. Kaars) 87'
6' (ast. S. Becker) P. Tietz
40' (ast. S. Widmer) P. Mwene
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 58% win probability (draw 21%, FC St. Pauli 19%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 1–2 FSV Mainz 05. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
10
3
Shots on target
6
0.86
Actual xG
2.35
3
Saves
1
52%
Possession
48%
7
Corners
7
14
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
6'
ast. S. Becker · P. Tietz⚽
40'
ast. S. Widmer · P. Mwene⚽
↕ L. Ritzka / A. Dzwigala
46'
↕ D. Sinani / C. Metcalfe
46'
↕ E. Smith / A. Ceesay
65'
↕ A. Hountondji / M. Kaars
65'
68'
D. Batz
72'
A. Sieb / S. Becker ↕
76'
D. Kohr / K. Potulski ↕
77'
A. Caci / S. Widmer ↕
84'
L. Maloney / N. Amiri ↕
84'
N. Weiper / P. Tietz ↕
↕ J. Irvine / M. Rasmussen
84'
⚽A. Ceesay · ast. M. Kaars
87'
K. Mets
88'
C. Metcalfe
90'+1
A. Ceesay
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
19.87%
FC
21.57%
X
58.56%
FSV ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FSV Mainz 05) 58.56% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
0.82
0.86
+0.04
FSV
1.87
2.35
+0.48
FSV Mainz 05 dominated by xG (2.35 vs 0.86). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
22
G 6.20
3 K. Mets K. Mets D 6.90
5
D 6.20
15 T. Ando T. Ando D 7.20
21 L. Ritzka L. Ritzka 45' M 7.20
8 E. Smith E. Smith 65' M 6.50
7 J. Irvine J. Irvine 84' M 6.90
11
M 6.30
16 J. Fujita J. Fujita F 7.00
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani 45' F 6.20
27 A. Hountondji A. Hountondji 65' F 6.20
Bench
9 Abdoulie Ceesay Abdoulie Ceesay 1 ⚽ 25' F 7.70
24 C. Metcalfe C. Metcalfe 45' M 6.70
23 L. Oppie L. Oppie D
19 M. Kaars M. Kaars 1 👟 25' F 6.90
20 M. Rasmussen M. Rasmussen 12' M 6.90
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
33 D. Batz D. Batz G 6.60
48 K. Potulski K. Potulski 76' D 7.00
4 S. Posch S. Posch D 7.00
21 D. da Costa D. da Costa D 7.00
2 P. Mwene P. Mwene 1 ⚽ M 8.20
10 N. Amiri N. Amiri 84' M 7.20
6 K. Sano K. Sano M 7.20
8 P. Nebel P. Nebel M 6.30
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer 1 👟 77' M 7.30
20 P. Tietz P. Tietz 1 ⚽ 84' F 7.20
23 S. Becker S. Becker 1 👟 72' F 6.50
Bench
19 A. Caci A. Caci 13' D 6.50
11 A. Sieb A. Sieb 18' F 6.30
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr 14' M 6.60
22 N. Veratschnig N. Veratschnig D
44 N. Weiper N. Weiper 12' F 6.70
27 R. Zentner R. Zentner G
24 S. Kawasaki S. Kawasaki M
Best on the pitch
P. Mwene
P. Mwene
M · FSV
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 26 pass
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay
F · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 5 pass
S. Widmer
S. Widmer
M · FSV
7.30
1 👟
· 41 pass
K. Sano
K. Sano
M · FSV
7.20
· 56 pass
N. Amiri
N. Amiri
M · FSV
7.20
1 shots · 39 pass
P. Tietz
P. Tietz
F · FSV
7.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 23 pass
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 20 16% — — —
K. Mets D 90 6.90 — — — 80 69% — 1 —
D 90 6.20 — — 1 73 65% — — —
T. Ando D 90 7.20 — — 1 58 52% 2 — —
L. Ritzka M 45 7.20 — — 1 14 12% 3 — —
E. Smith M 65 6.50 — — — 42 31% 2 — —
J. Irvine M 84 6.90 — — 1 32 25% 1 — —
M 90 6.30 — — — 36 28% 2 — —
J. Fujita F 90 7.00 — — 1 35 31% 3 — —
D. Sinani F 45 6.20 — — — 19 13% — — —
A. Hountondji F 65 6.20 — — — 7 5% — — —
Abdoulie Ceesay F 25 7.70 1 — 1 5 4% — 1 —
C. Metcalfe M 45 6.70 — — 1 16 12% 1 1 —
M. Kaars F 25 6.90 — 1 1 10 8% — — —
M. Rasmussen M 12 6.90 — — — 5 5% — — —
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Batz G 90 6.60 — — — 32 21% — 1 —
K. Potulski D 76 7.00 — — — 40 34% 3 — —
S. Posch D 90 7.00 — — 1 63 52% 3 — —
D. da Costa D 90 7.00 — — 1 60 51% 2 — —
P. Mwene M 90 8.20 1 — 3 26 19% 1 — —
N. Amiri M 84 7.20 — — 1 39 32% 1 — —
K. Sano M 90 7.20 — — — 56 48% — — —
P. Nebel M 90 6.30 — — — 41 36% 2 — —
S. Widmer M 77 7.30 — 1 — 41 38% 2 — —
P. Tietz F 84 7.20 1 — 3 23 13% — — —
S. Becker F 72 6.50 — 1 1 12 9% — — —
A. Caci D 13 6.50 — — — 11 8% 1 — —
A. Sieb F 18 6.30 — — — 8 5% — — —
D. Kohr M 14 6.60 — — — 5 5% — — —
N. Weiper F 12 6.70 — — — 4 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 1–2 FSV Mainz 05.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05?
The model assigned 19% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 21% to a draw, and 58% to an FSV Mainz 05 win.