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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31 April 25, 2026 17:30
FSV Mainz 05
#10 · 37 pts
3 – 4
Final score
Bayern München
#1 · 86 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
D. Kohr (ast. K. Sano) 15'
P. Nebel 29'
S. Becker 45'+2
53' (ast. K. Laimer) N. Jackson
73' (ast. K. Laimer) M. Olise
80' J. Musiala
83' H. Kane

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 62% win probability (draw 17%, FSV Mainz 05 20%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Bayern München.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
10
8
Shots on target
6
2.29
Actual xG
1.97
2
Saves
5
30%
Possession
70%
2
Corners
4
21
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽D. Kohr · ast. K. Sano
15'
D. Kohr
20'
⚽P. Nebel
29'
33'
K. Laimer
⚽S. Becker
45'+2
46'
H. Kane / A. Pavlovic ↕
46'
M. Olise / L. Diaz ↕
53'
ast. K. Laimer · N. Jackson⚽
57'
J. Stanisic / A. Davies ↕
57'
J. Musiala / R. Guerreiro ↕
↕ S. Becker / A. Sieb
71'
73'
ast. K. Laimer · M. Olise⚽
77'
J. Tah / B. Ndiaye ↕
↕ N. Amiri / L. Maloney
79'
↕ S. Widmer / A. Caci
80'
80'
J. Musiala⚽
83'
H. Kane⚽
↕ D. Kohr / N. Weiper
86'
↕ P. Nebel / W. Boving
87'
90'+8
M. Olise
Pre-match prediction
20.4%
FSV
17.03%
X
62.58%
Bayern ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 62.58% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FSV
1.76
2.29
+0.53
Bayern
3.08
1.97
-1.11
FSV Mainz 05 dominated by xG (2.29 vs 1.97). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
33 Daniel Batz Daniel Batz G 6.30
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr 1 ⚽ 85' D 6.60
4 Stefan Posch Stefan Posch D 5.90
21 Danny da Costa Danny da Costa D 5.90
2 Phillipp Mwene Phillipp Mwene M 6.60
10 Nadiem Amiri Nadiem Amiri 79' M 7.00
6 Kaishu Sano Kaishu Sano 1 👟 M 7.30
8 Paul Nebel Paul Nebel 1 ⚽ 85' M 7.00
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer 80' M 6.90
20 Phillip Tietz Phillip Tietz F 7.30
23 S. Becker S. Becker 1 ⚽ 71' F 7.70
Bench
19 Anthony Caci Anthony Caci 16' D 6.30
11 Armindo Sieb Armindo Sieb 25' F 6.50
48 Kacper Potulski Kacper Potulski D
44 Nelson Weiper Nelson Weiper 11' F 6.20
22 Nikolas Veratschnig Nikolas Veratschnig D
27 Robin Zentner Robin Zentner G
24 Sota Kawasaki Sota Kawasaki M
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
40
G 7.20
19
A. Davies 57' D 6.00
21
H. Ito D 6.70
3
Kim Min-Jae D 6.70
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer 2 👟 D 6.90
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović 45' M 6.70
39
B. Ndiaye 77' M 6.90
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz 45' M 6.20
8
Leon Goretzka M 7.20
22
R. Guerreiro 57' M 5.60
11
N. Jackson 1 ⚽ F 7.70
Bench
9 H. Kane H. Kane 1 ⚽ 51' F 7.30
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 1 ⚽ 39' M 7.30
4
Jonathan Tah 19' D 6.30
44
J. Stanisic 39' D 6.30
1
M. Neuer G
17 M. Olise M. Olise 1 ⚽ 51' M 8.20
Best on the pitch
M. Olise
M. Olise
M · Bayern
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 31 pass
N. Jackson
F · Bayern
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 26 pass
S. Becker
S. Becker
F · FSV
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots · 11 pass
J. Musiala
J. Musiala
M · Bayern
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 13 pass
H. Kane
H. Kane
F · Bayern
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 9 pass
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano
M · FSV
7.30
1 👟
1 shots · 22 pass
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniel Batz G 96 6.30 — — — 25 14% — — —
D. Kohr D 85 6.60 1 — 1 23 21% 1 1 —
Stefan Posch D 96 5.90 — — 1 37 27% 4 — —
Danny da Costa D 96 5.90 — — — 23 17% 1 — —
Phillipp Mwene M 96 6.60 — — — 23 18% 2 — —
Nadiem Amiri M 79 7.00 — — 4 15 14% — — —
Kaishu Sano M 96 7.30 — 1 1 22 19% 4 — —
Paul Nebel M 85 7.00 1 — 2 20 14% 3 — —
S. Widmer M 80 6.90 — — 1 10 8% 2 — —
Phillip Tietz F 96 7.30 — — — 15 11% 1 — —
S. Becker F 71 7.70 1 — 4 11 9% 1 — —
Anthony Caci D 16 6.30 — — — 7 5% 2 — —
Armindo Sieb F 25 6.50 — — 1 6 5% — — —
Nelson Weiper F 11 6.20 — — — 5 3% — — —
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 7.20 — — — 26 21% — — —
A. Davies D 57 6.00 — — 1 31 30% — — —
H. Ito D 96 6.70 — — — 78 75% 1 — —
Kim Min-Jae D 96 6.70 — — — 98 92% 1 — —
K. Laimer D 96 6.90 — 2 1 68 64% 1 1 —
A. Pavlović M 45 6.70 — — — 48 48% — — —
B. Ndiaye M 77 6.90 — — — 62 58% 4 — —
L. Díaz M 45 6.20 — — — 23 17% — — —
Leon Goretzka M 96 7.20 — — — 48 42% 2 — —
R. Guerreiro M 57 5.60 — — 1 27 21% — — —
N. Jackson F 96 7.70 1 — 3 26 18% 2 — —
H. Kane F 51 7.30 1 — 1 9 6% — — —
J. Musiala M 39 7.30 1 — 2 13 13% 1 — —
Jonathan Tah D 19 6.30 — — — 13 12% — — —
J. Stanisic D 39 6.30 — — — 17 16% 1 — —
M. Olise M 51 8.20 1 — 1 31 23% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 20% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 17% to a draw, and 62% to an Bayern München win.