Skip to main content
← Bundesliga
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31 April 25, 2026 15:30 Mewa Arena, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05
#8 · 4 pts
3 – 4
Final score
Bayern München
#4 · 7 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
D. Kohr (ast. K. Sano) 15'
P. Nebel 29'
S. Becker 45'+2
53' (ast. K. Laimer) N. Jackson
73' (ast. K. Laimer) M. Olise
80' J. Musiala
83' H. Kane
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 62% win probability (draw 17%, FSV Mainz 05 20%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Bayern München.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
10
8
Shots on target
6
2.29
Actual xG
1.97
2
Saves
5
30%
Possession
70%
2
Corners
4
21
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽D. Kohr · ast. K. Sano
15'
D. Kohr
20'
⚽P. Nebel
29'
33'
K. Laimer
⚽S. Becker
45'+2
46'
H. Kane / A. Pavlovic ↕
46'
M. Olise / L. Diaz ↕
53'
ast. K. Laimer · N. Jackson⚽
57'
J. Stanisic / A. Davies ↕
57'
J. Musiala / R. Guerreiro ↕
↕ S. Becker / A. Sieb
71'
73'
ast. K. Laimer · M. Olise⚽
77'
J. Tah / B. Ndiaye ↕
↕ N. Amiri / L. Maloney
79'
↕ S. Widmer / A. Caci
80'
80'
J. Musiala⚽
83'
H. Kane⚽
↕ D. Kohr / N. Weiper
86'
↕ P. Nebel / W. Boving
87'
90'+8
M. Olise
Pre-match prediction
20.4%
FSV
17.03%
X
62.58%
Bayern ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 62.58% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FSV
1.76
2.29
+0.53
Bayern
3.08
1.97
-1.11
FSV Mainz 05 dominated by xG (2.29 vs 1.97). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3 9
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3 9
3 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 3 7
4 Bayern München Bayern München 3 7
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3 6
6 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 3 6
7 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3 4
8 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3 4
9 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3 4
10 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3 4
11 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 3 4
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 3 4
13 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 3 3
14 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 3 3
15 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 3 1
16 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3 1
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 0
18 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 3 0
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
33 D. Batz D. Batz G 6.30
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr 1 ⚽ 85' D 6.60
4 S. Posch S. Posch D 5.90
21 D. da Costa D. da Costa D 5.90
2 P. Mwene P. Mwene M 6.60
10 N. Amiri N. Amiri 79' M 7.00
6 K. Sano K. Sano 1 👟 M 7.30
8 P. Nebel P. Nebel 1 ⚽ 85' M 7.00
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer 80' M 6.90
20 P. Tietz P. Tietz F 7.30
23 S. Becker S. Becker 1 ⚽ 71' F 7.70
Bench
19 A. Caci A. Caci 16' D 6.30
11 A. Sieb A. Sieb 25' F 6.50
48 K. Potulski K. Potulski D
22 N. Veratschnig N. Veratschnig D
44 N. Weiper N. Weiper 11' F 6.20
27 R. Zentner R. Zentner G
24 S. Kawasaki S. Kawasaki M
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
40
G 7.20
19 A. Davies A. Davies 57' D 6.00
21 H. Ito H. Ito D 6.70
3 Kim Min-Jae Kim Min-Jae D 6.70
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer 2 👟 D 6.90
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović 45' M 6.70
39 Bara Ndiaye Bara Ndiaye 77' M 6.90
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz 45' M 6.20
8 Leon Goretzka Leon Goretzka M 7.20
22 Raphaël Guerreiro Raphaël Guerreiro 57' M 5.60
11 N. Jackson N. Jackson 1 ⚽ F 7.70
Bench
9 H. Kane H. Kane 1 ⚽ 51' F 7.30
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 1 ⚽ 39' M 7.30
44 J. Stanišić J. Stanišić 39' D 6.30
4 J. Tah J. Tah 19' D 6.30
1 M. Neuer M. Neuer G
17 M. Olise M. Olise 1 ⚽ 51' M 8.20
Best on the pitch
M. Olise
M. Olise
M · Bayern
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 31 pass
N. Jackson
N. Jackson
F · Bayern
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 26 pass
S. Becker
S. Becker
F · FSV
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots · 11 pass
J. Musiala
J. Musiala
M · Bayern
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 13 pass
H. Kane
H. Kane
F · Bayern
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 9 pass
K. Sano
K. Sano
M · FSV
7.30
1 👟
1 shots · 22 pass
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Batz G 96 6.30 — — — 25 14% — — —
D. Kohr D 85 6.60 1 — 1 23 21% 1 1 —
S. Posch D 96 5.90 — — 1 37 27% 4 — —
D. da Costa D 96 5.90 — — — 23 17% 1 — —
P. Mwene M 96 6.60 — — — 23 18% 2 — —
N. Amiri M 79 7.00 — — 4 15 14% — — —
K. Sano M 96 7.30 — 1 1 22 19% 4 — —
P. Nebel M 85 7.00 1 — 2 20 14% 3 — —
S. Widmer M 80 6.90 — — 1 10 8% 2 — —
P. Tietz F 96 7.30 — — — 15 11% 1 — —
S. Becker F 71 7.70 1 — 4 11 9% 1 — —
A. Caci D 16 6.30 — — — 7 5% 2 — —
A. Sieb F 25 6.50 — — 1 6 5% — — —
N. Weiper F 11 6.20 — — — 5 3% — — —
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 7.20 — — — 26 21% — — —
A. Davies D 57 6.00 — — 1 31 30% — — —
H. Ito D 96 6.70 — — — 78 75% 1 — —
Kim Min-Jae D 96 6.70 — — — 98 92% 1 — —
K. Laimer D 96 6.90 — 2 1 68 64% 1 1 —
A. Pavlović M 45 6.70 — — — 48 48% — — —
Bara Ndiaye M 77 6.90 — — — 62 58% 4 — —
L. Díaz M 45 6.20 — — — 23 17% — — —
Leon Goretzka M 96 7.20 — — — 48 42% 2 — —
Raphaël Guerreiro M 57 5.60 — — 1 27 21% — — —
N. Jackson F 96 7.70 1 — 3 26 18% 2 — —
H. Kane F 51 7.30 1 — 1 9 6% — — —
J. Musiala M 39 7.30 1 — 2 13 13% 1 — —
J. Stanišić D 39 6.30 — — — 17 16% 1 — —
J. Tah D 19 6.30 — — — 13 12% — — —
M. Olise M 51 8.20 1 — 1 31 23% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 20% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 17% to a draw, and 62% to an Bayern München win.