✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
D. Kohr
(ast. K. Sano)
15'
P. Nebel
29'
S. Becker
45'+2
53'
(ast. K. Laimer)
N. Jackson
73'
(ast. K. Laimer)
M. Olise
80'
J. Musiala
83'
H. Kane
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 62% win probability (draw 17%, FSV Mainz 05 20%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Bayern München.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
10
8
Shots on target
6
2.29
Actual xG
1.97
2
Saves
5
30%
Possession
70%
2
Corners
4
21
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽D. Kohr
· ast. K. Sano
15'
D. Kohr
20'
⚽P. Nebel
29'
33'
K. Laimer
⚽S. Becker
45'+2
46'
H. Kane
/
A. Pavlovic
46'
M. Olise
/
L. Diaz
53'
ast. K. Laimer ·
N. Jackson⚽
57'
J. Stanisic
/
A. Davies
57'
J. Musiala
/
R. Guerreiro
S. Becker
/ A. Sieb
71'
73'
ast. K. Laimer ·
M. Olise⚽
77'
J. Tah
/
B. Ndiaye
N. Amiri
/ L. Maloney
79'
S. Widmer
/ A. Caci
80'
80'
J. Musiala⚽
83'
H. Kane⚽
D. Kohr
/ N. Weiper
86'
P. Nebel
/ W. Boving
87'
90'+8
M. Olise
Pre-match prediction
20.4%
FSV
17.03%
X
62.58%
Bayern ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München)
62.58%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.76
2.29
+0.53
3.08
1.97
-1.11
FSV Mainz 05 dominated by xG (2.29 vs 1.97).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
33
D. Batz
G
D. Batz
G
31
D. Kohr
1 ⚽
85'
D
D. Kohr
1 ⚽
85'
D
4
S. Posch
D
S. Posch
D
21
D. da Costa
D
D. da Costa
D
2
P. Mwene
M
P. Mwene
M
10
N. Amiri
79'
M
N. Amiri
79'
M
6
K. Sano
1 👟
M
K. Sano
1 👟
M
8
P. Nebel
1 ⚽
85'
M
P. Nebel
1 ⚽
85'
M
30
S. Widmer
80'
M
S. Widmer
80'
M
20
P. Tietz
F
P. Tietz
F
23
S. Becker
1 ⚽
71'
F
S. Becker
1 ⚽
71'
F
Bench
19
A. Caci
16'
D
A. Caci
16'
D
11
A. Sieb
25'
F
A. Sieb
25'
F
48
K. Potulski
D
K. Potulski
D
22
N. Veratschnig
D
N. Veratschnig
D
44
N. Weiper
11'
F
N. Weiper
11'
F
27
R. Zentner
G
R. Zentner
G
24
S. Kawasaki
M
S. Kawasaki
M
40
G
19
A. Davies
57'
D
A. Davies
57'
D
21
H. Ito
D
H. Ito
D
3
Kim Min-Jae
D
Kim Min-Jae
D
27
K. Laimer
2 👟
D
K. Laimer
2 👟
D
45
A. Pavlović
45'
M
A. Pavlović
45'
M
39
Bara Ndiaye
77'
M
Bara Ndiaye
77'
M
14
L. Díaz
45'
M
L. Díaz
45'
M
8
L. Goretzka
M
L. Goretzka
M
22
Raphaël Guerreiro
57'
M
Raphaël Guerreiro
57'
M
11
N. Jackson
1 ⚽
F
N. Jackson
1 ⚽
F
Bench
9
H. Kane
1 ⚽
51'
F
H. Kane
1 ⚽
51'
F
10
J. Musiala
1 ⚽
39'
M
J. Musiala
1 ⚽
39'
M
44
J. Stanišić
39'
D
J. Stanišić
39'
D
4
J. Tah
19'
D
J. Tah
19'
D
1
M. Neuer
G
M. Neuer
G
17
M. Olise
1 ⚽
51'
M
M. Olise
1 ⚽
51'
M
Best on the pitch
M. Olise
M · Bayern
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 31 pass
N. Jackson
F · Bayern
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 26 pass
S. Becker
F · FSV
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 11 pass
J. Musiala
M · Bayern
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 13 pass
H. Kane
F · Bayern
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 9 pass
K. Sano
M · FSV
7.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 22 pass
FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Batz | G | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 14% | — | — | — |
| D. Kohr | D | 85 | 6.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. Posch | D | 96 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 27% | 4 | — | — |
| D. da Costa | D | 96 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Mwene | M | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Amiri | M | 79 | 7.00 | — | — | 4 | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| K. Sano | M | 96 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 22 | 19% | 4 | — | — |
| P. Nebel | M | 85 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 20 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Widmer | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| P. Tietz | F | 96 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Becker | F | 71 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 4 | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Caci | D | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Sieb | F | 25 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| N. Weiper | F | 11 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
Bayern München — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 21% | — | — | — | |
| A. Davies | D | 57 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 30% | — | — | — |
| H. Ito | D | 96 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 78 | 75% | 1 | — | — |
| Kim Min-Jae | D | 96 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 98 | 92% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Laimer | D | 96 | 6.90 | — | 2 | 1 | 68 | 64% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Pavlović | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 48 | 48% | — | — | — |
| Bara Ndiaye | M | 77 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 62 | 58% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Díaz | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 17% | — | — | — |
| L. Goretzka | M | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| Raphaël Guerreiro | M | 57 | 5.60 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 21% | — | — | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 96 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 26 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 51 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| J. Musiala | M | 39 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 13 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 39 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Tah | D | 19 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| M. Olise | M | 51 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 31 | 23% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 20% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 17% to a draw, and 62% to an Bayern München win.