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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31 April 25, 2026 15:30 Mewa Arena, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05
#10 · 40 pts
3 – 4
Final score
Bayern München
#1 · 89 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
D. Kohr (ast. K. Sano) 15'
P. Nebel 29'
S. Becker 45'+2
53' (ast. K. Laimer) N. Jackson
73' (ast. K. Laimer) M. Olise
80' J. Musiala
83' H. Kane
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 62% win probability (draw 17%, FSV Mainz 05 20%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Bayern München.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
10
8
Shots on target
6
2.29
Actual xG
1.97
2
Saves
5
30%
Possession
70%
2
Corners
4
21
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽D. Kohr · ast. K. Sano
15'
D. Kohr
20'
⚽P. Nebel
29'
33'
K. Laimer
⚽S. Becker
45'+2
46'
H. Kane / A. Pavlovic ↕
46'
M. Olise / L. Diaz ↕
53'
ast. K. Laimer · N. Jackson⚽
57'
J. Stanisic / A. Davies ↕
57'
J. Musiala / R. Guerreiro ↕
↕ S. Becker / A. Sieb
71'
73'
ast. K. Laimer · M. Olise⚽
77'
J. Tah / B. Ndiaye ↕
↕ N. Amiri / L. Maloney
79'
↕ S. Widmer / A. Caci
80'
80'
J. Musiala⚽
83'
H. Kane⚽
↕ D. Kohr / N. Weiper
86'
↕ P. Nebel / W. Boving
87'
90'+8
M. Olise
Pre-match prediction
20.4%
FSV
17.03%
X
62.58%
Bayern ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 62.58% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FSV
1.76
2.29
+0.53
Bayern
3.08
1.97
-1.11
FSV Mainz 05 dominated by xG (2.29 vs 1.97). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 34 89
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 34 73
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 34 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 34 62
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 34 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 34 59
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 34 47
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 34 44
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 34 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 34 40
11 Union Berlin Union Berlin 34 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 38
13 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 34 38
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 34 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 34 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 34 29
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 34 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 34 26
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
33 Daniel Batz Daniel Batz G 6.30
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr 1 ⚽ 85' D 6.60
4 Stefan Posch Stefan Posch D 5.90
21 Danny da Costa Danny da Costa D 5.90
2 Phillipp Mwene Phillipp Mwene M 6.60
10 N. Amiri N. Amiri 79' M 7.00
6 K. Sano K. Sano 1 👟 M 7.30
8 P. Nebel P. Nebel 1 ⚽ 85' M 7.00
30 Silvan Widmer Silvan Widmer 80' M 6.90
20 Phillip Tietz Phillip Tietz F 7.30
23 S. Becker S. Becker 1 ⚽ 71' F 7.70
Bench
19 Anthony Caci Anthony Caci 16' D 6.30
11 Armindo Sieb Armindo Sieb 25' F 6.50
48
Kacper Potulski D
44 Nelson Weiper Nelson Weiper 11' F 6.20
22 Nikolas Veratschnig Nikolas Veratschnig D
27 Robin Zentner Robin Zentner G
24 Sota Kawasaki Sota Kawasaki M
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
40
G 7.20
19 Alphonso Davies Alphonso Davies 57' D 6.00
21 H. Ito H. Ito D 6.70
3 Kim Min-Jae Kim Min-Jae D 6.70
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer 2 👟 D 6.90
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović 45' M 6.70
39 Bara Sapoko Ndiaye Bara Sapoko Ndiaye 77' M 6.90
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz 45' M 6.20
8 L. Goretzka L. Goretzka M 7.20
22 Raphaël Guerreiro Raphaël Guerreiro 57' M 5.60
11 N. Jackson N. Jackson 1 ⚽ F 7.70
Bench
9 H. Kane H. Kane 1 ⚽ 51' F 7.30
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 1 ⚽ 39' M 7.30
44 Josip Stanišić Josip Stanišić 39' D 6.30
4 J. Tah J. Tah 19' D 6.30
1 M. Neuer M. Neuer G
17 M. Olise M. Olise 1 ⚽ 51' M 8.20
Best on the pitch
M. Olise
M. Olise
M · Bayern
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 31 pass
N. Jackson
N. Jackson
F · Bayern
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 26 pass
S. Becker
S. Becker
F · FSV
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots · 11 pass
J. Musiala
J. Musiala
M · Bayern
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 13 pass
H. Kane
H. Kane
F · Bayern
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 9 pass
K. Sano
K. Sano
M · FSV
7.30
1 👟
1 shots · 22 pass
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniel Batz G 96 6.30 — — — 25 14% — — —
D. Kohr D 85 6.60 1 — 1 23 21% 1 1 —
Stefan Posch D 96 5.90 — — 1 37 27% 4 — —
Danny da Costa D 96 5.90 — — — 23 17% 1 — —
Phillipp Mwene M 96 6.60 — — — 23 18% 2 — —
N. Amiri M 79 7.00 — — 4 15 14% — — —
K. Sano M 96 7.30 — 1 1 22 19% 4 — —
P. Nebel M 85 7.00 1 — 2 20 14% 3 — —
Silvan Widmer M 80 6.90 — — 1 10 8% 2 — —
Phillip Tietz F 96 7.30 — — — 15 11% 1 — —
S. Becker F 71 7.70 1 — 4 11 9% 1 — —
Anthony Caci D 16 6.30 — — — 7 5% 2 — —
Armindo Sieb F 25 6.50 — — 1 6 5% — — —
Nelson Weiper F 11 6.20 — — — 5 3% — — —
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 7.20 — — — 26 21% — — —
Alphonso Davies D 57 6.00 — — 1 31 30% — — —
H. Ito D 96 6.70 — — — 78 75% 1 — —
Kim Min-Jae D 96 6.70 — — — 98 92% 1 — —
K. Laimer D 96 6.90 — 2 1 68 64% 1 1 —
A. Pavlović M 45 6.70 — — — 48 48% — — —
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye M 77 6.90 — — — 62 58% 4 — —
L. Díaz M 45 6.20 — — — 23 17% — — —
L. Goretzka M 96 7.20 — — — 48 42% 2 — —
Raphaël Guerreiro M 57 5.60 — — 1 27 21% — — —
N. Jackson F 96 7.70 1 — 3 26 18% 2 — —
H. Kane F 51 7.30 1 — 1 9 6% — — —
J. Musiala M 39 7.30 1 — 2 13 13% 1 — —
Josip Stanišić D 39 6.30 — — — 17 16% 1 — —
J. Tah D 19 6.30 — — — 13 12% — — —
M. Olise M 51 8.20 1 — 1 31 23% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 20% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 17% to a draw, and 62% to an Bayern München win.