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Conference League · Quarter-finals April 09, 2026 21:00
FSV Mainz 05
#7 · 13 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Strasbourg
#1 · 16 pts
K. Sano (ast. S. Kawasaki) 11'
S. Posch (ast. P. Nebel) 19'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 40% win probability (draw 25%, Strasbourg 33%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 2–0 Strasbourg. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Strasbourg.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
2
1.52
Actual xG
1.00
2
Saves
4
34%
Possession
66%
8
Corners
4
15
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽K. Sano · ast. S. Kawasaki
11'
⚽S. Posch · ast. P. Nebel
19'
31'
G. Doue
64'
D. Moreira / M. Oyedele ↕
64'
E. Emegha / G. Yassine ↕
↕ P. Mwene / N. Veratschnig
69'
↕ N. Weiper / A. Sieb
69'
↕ S. Kawasaki / W. Boving
70'
↕ S. Widmer / K. Potulski
80'
85'
S. Nanasi / M. Godo ↕
↕ P. Nebel / L. Maloney
89'
S. Posch
90'+5
90'+5
D. Moreira
A. Sieb
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
40.7%
FSV ←
25.67%
X
33.63%
Strasbourg
we assigned to the actual result (FSV Mainz 05) 40.7% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FSV
1.66
1.52
-0.14
Strasbourg
1.44
1.00
-0.44
FSV Mainz 05 dominated by xG (1.52 vs 1.00). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Strasbourg Strasbourg 6 16
2 Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa 6 14
3 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 6 13
4 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 6 13
5 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 6 13
6 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 6 13
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 6 13
8 AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 6 12
9 Lausanne Lausanne 6 11
10 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 6 10
11 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 6 10
12 Samsunspor Samsunspor 6 10
13 Celje Celje 6 10
14 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 6 10
15 Fiorentina Fiorentina 6 9
16 HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka 6 9
17 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 6 9
18 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 6 8
19 FC Noah FC Noah 6 8
20 Drita Drita 6 8
21 KuPS KuPS 6 7
22 Shkendija Shkendija 6 7
23 Zrinjski Zrinjski 6 7
24 Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc 6 7
25 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 6 7
26 Lincoln Red Imps FC Lincoln Red Imps FC 6 7
27 Dynamo Kyiv Dynamo Kyiv 6 6
28 Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa 6 6
29 Slovan Bratislava Slovan Bratislava 6 6
30 Breidablik Breidablik 6 5
31 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 6 4
32 BK Hacken BK Hacken 6 3
33 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 6 3
34 Shelbourne Shelbourne 6 2
35 Aberdeen Aberdeen 6 2
36 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 6 1
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
33 Daniel Batz Daniel Batz G 7.30
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr D 7.50
4 Stefan Posch Stefan Posch 1 ⚽ D 7.90
21 Danny da Costa Danny da Costa D 6.90
2 Phillipp Mwene Phillipp Mwene 69' M 6.90
24 Sota Kawasaki Sota Kawasaki 1 👟 70' M 6.60
6 Kaishu Sano Kaishu Sano 1 ⚽ M 8.60
8 Paul Nebel Paul Nebel 1 👟 89' M 7.30
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer 80' M 7.30
20 Phillip Tietz Phillip Tietz F 6.30
44 Nelson Weiper Nelson Weiper 69' F 6.30
Bench
11 Armindo Sieb Armindo Sieb 26' F 6.20
48 Kacper Potulski Kacper Potulski 15' D 6.90
22 Nikolas Veratschnig Nikolas Veratschnig 26' D 7.70
Strasbourg Strasbourg 4-4-1-1
39
G 7.60
3 Ben Chilwell Ben Chilwell D 6.50
6 Ismael Doukouré Ismael Doukouré D 6.90
2 Andrew Omobamidele Andrew Omobamidele D 7.30
22 Guéla Doué Guéla Doué D 6.90
20 M. Godo M. Godo 85' M 6.60
8 Maxi Oyedele Maxi Oyedele 64' M 6.70
32 Valentín Barco Valentín Barco M 7.30
80 Gessime Yassine Gessime Yassine 64' M 6.90
29 Samir El Mourabet Samir El Mourabet F 6.30
19 Julio Enciso Julio Enciso F 6.20
Bench
7 Diego Moreira Diego Moreira 31' F 6.70
10
E. Emegha 31' F 6.50
24 Lucas Høgsberg Lucas Høgsberg D
17 Mathis Amougou Mathis Amougou M
27 Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Samuel Amo-Ameyaw F
11 Sebastian Nanasi Sebastian Nanasi 10' M 6.60
Best on the pitch
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano
M · FSV
8.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 28 pass
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch
D · FSV
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 38 pass
Nikolas Veratschnig
Nikolas Veratschnig
D · FSV
7.70
· 13 pass
G · Strasbourg
7.60
· 24 pass
D. Kohr
D. Kohr
D · FSV
7.50
1 shots · 32 pass
Valentín Barco
Valentín Barco
M · Strasbourg
7.30
1 shots · 69 pass
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniel Batz G 95 7.30 — — — 30 16% — — —
D. Kohr D 95 7.50 — — 1 32 28% — — —
Stefan Posch D 95 7.90 1 — 2 38 32% 1 — —
Danny da Costa D 95 6.90 — — — 15 14% 1 — —
Phillipp Mwene M 69 6.90 — — — 16 13% 4 — —
Sota Kawasaki M 70 6.60 — 1 — 15 11% 1 — —
Kaishu Sano M 95 8.60 1 — 1 28 25% 3 — —
Paul Nebel M 89 7.30 — 1 — 35 28% — — —
S. Widmer M 80 7.30 — — — 19 15% 2 — —
Phillip Tietz F 95 6.30 — — 2 19 13% — — —
Nelson Weiper F 69 6.30 — — 2 11 9% 3 — —
Armindo Sieb F 26 6.20 — — 3 3 2% — — —
Kacper Potulski D 15 6.90 — — — 8 7% — — —
Nikolas Veratschnig D 26 7.70 — — — 13 10% — — —
Strasbourg Strasbourg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 95 7.60 — — — 24 23% — — —
Ben Chilwell D 95 6.50 — — — 66 59% 1 — —
Ismael Doukouré D 95 6.90 — — — 81 70% 2 — —
Andrew Omobamidele D 95 7.30 — — — 76 75% — — —
Guéla Doué D 95 6.90 — — 2 86 79% 1 1 —
M. Godo M 85 6.60 — — — 32 25% — — —
Maxi Oyedele M 64 6.70 — — — 54 49% — — —
Valentín Barco M 95 7.30 — — 1 69 56% 2 — —
Gessime Yassine M 64 6.90 — — — 32 30% 2 — —
Samir El Mourabet F 95 6.30 — — — 54 43% 2 — —
Julio Enciso F 95 6.20 — — 2 19 16% — — —
Diego Moreira F 31 6.70 — — 1 12 9% 1 — —
E. Emegha F 31 6.50 — — 1 1 1% — — —
Sebastian Nanasi M 10 6.60 — — — 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs Strasbourg?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 2–0 Strasbourg.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs Strasbourg?
The model assigned 40% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 25% to a draw, and 33% to an Strasbourg win.