Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 31
April 25, 2026 23:30
Samu
(ast. Gustavo)
72'
T. Strata
(ast. Beni)
90'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Guimaraes a 44% win probability (draw 26%, Rio Ave 29%). The final result was Guimaraes 2–0 Rio Ave. In 1 previous meetings, Guimaraes have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Rio Ave.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
3
3
Shots on target
4
1.13
Actual xG
0.59
4
Saves
1
56%
Possession
44%
3
Corners
5
21
Tackles
18
4
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
28'
Andreas Ndoj
Gustavo Silva
57'
D. Sousa
/ G. Nogueira
58'
Maga
/ T. Strata
58'
O. Camara
/ M. Nogueira
58'
60'
Gustavo Mancha
61'
Tamás Nikitscher
Thiago Balieiro
62'
N. Saviolo
/ T. Arcanjo
68'
69'
Ryan Guilherme
/
O. Pohlmann
69'
J. Tome
/
D. Spikic
⚽Samu
· ast. Gustavo
72'
77'
O. Richards
/
N. Abbey
77'
T. Monteiro
/
T. Nikitscher
79'
Diogo Bezerra
Samu
80'
Gustavo
/ N. Oliveira
81'
86'
Rafael Lobato
/
Diogo Bezerra
Tony Strata
90'+3
⚽T. Strata
· ast. Beni
90'
Pre-match prediction
44.39%
Guimaraes ←
26.41%
X
29.2%
Rio
we assigned to the actual result (Guimaraes)
44.39%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
1.13
-0.29
1.18
0.59
-0.59
Guimaraes dominated by xG (1.13 vs 0.59).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
27
Charles
G
Charles
G
13
João Mendes
D
João Mendes
D
28
Thiago Balieiro
D
4
D
2
Miguel Maga
58'
D
Miguel Maga
58'
D
23
Diogo Sousa
58'
M
16
1 👟
M
48
Noah Saviolo
68'
M
Noah Saviolo
68'
M
20
Samu
1 ⚽
M
Samu
1 ⚽
M
19
Oumar Camara
59'
M
Oumar Camara
59'
M
11
Gustavo Silva
1 👟
81'
F
Gustavo Silva
1 👟
81'
F
Bench
30
Gonçalo Nogueira
32'
M
Gonçalo Nogueira
32'
M
88
Miguel Nogueira
31'
M
Miguel Nogueira
31'
M
66
Tony Strata
1 ⚽
32'
D
Tony Strata
1 ⚽
32'
D
1
G
6
Nelson Abbey
77'
D
Nelson Abbey
77'
D
39
Gustavo Mancha
D
Gustavo Mancha
D
32
Jakub Brabec
D
Jakub Brabec
D
17
Marios Vrousai
D
Marios Vrousai
D
5
A. Ntoi
M
A. Ntoi
M
44
Tamás Nikitscher
77'
M
Tamás Nikitscher
77'
M
18
Dario Špikić
69'
M
Dario Špikić
69'
M
80
Olinho
69'
M
Olinho
69'
M
7
Diogo Bezerra
86'
M
Diogo Bezerra
86'
M
11
Jalen Blesa
F
Jalen Blesa
F
Bench
8
Ryan Guilherme
21'
M
Ryan Guilherme
21'
M
9
Tamblé Monteiro
13'
F
Tamblé Monteiro
13'
F
Best on the pitch
Tony Strata
D · Guimaraes
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 15 pass
Samu
M · Guimaraes
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 32 pass
Thiago Balieiro
D · Guimaraes
7.30
· 55 pass
Miguel Maga
D · Guimaraes
7.30
· 34 pass
Charles
G · Guimaraes
7.20
· 38 pass
D · Guimaraes
7.20
· 64 pass
Guimaraes — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 27% | — | — | — |
| João Mendes | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 65 | 52% | 3 | — | — |
| Thiago Balieiro | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 55 | 50% | 4 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 64 | 49% | 1 | — | — | |
| Miguel Maga | D | 58 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| Diogo Sousa | M | 58 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 40 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 69 | 59% | 1 | — | — | |
| Noah Saviolo | M | 68 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Samu | M | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 32 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Oumar Camara | M | 59 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Gustavo Silva | F | 81 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| Gonçalo Nogueira | M | 32 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Miguel Nogueira | M | 31 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Tony Strata | D | 32 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | — | 1 | — |
Rio Ave — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 45 | 30% | — | — | — | |
| Nelson Abbey | D | 77 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 4 | — | — |
| Gustavo Mancha | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 55 | 44% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Jakub Brabec | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 57 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| Marios Vrousai | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 37 | 23% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Ntoi | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| Tamás Nikitscher | M | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 26 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Dario Špikić | M | 69 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Olinho | M | 69 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Diogo Bezerra | M | 86 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Jalen Blesa | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Ryan Guilherme | M | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Tamblé Monteiro | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Guimaraes vs Rio Ave?
The final score was Guimaraes 2–0 Rio Ave.
What did the model predict before Guimaraes vs Rio Ave?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Guimaraes win, 26% to a draw, and 29% to an Rio Ave win.