← Brasileirão Série D

Santa Catarina - Joinville

Brasileirão Série D May 16, 2026 20:00
Santa Catarina
#5 · 7 pts
vs
Joinville
#1 · 11 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
38.56%
Win
Santa Catarina
31.49%
Draw
29.95%
Win
Joinville
1.2
Expected xG
0.78

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Santa Catarina a 38% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Joinville. Expected goals are 1.2 for Santa Catarina and 0.8 for Joinville (total 2.0), with a 69% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 16.5% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Santa Catarina have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Joinville.

Score Matrix
↕ Santa Catarina Joinville →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 13.7% 10.7% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% —
1 16.5% 12.9% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% —
2 10.0% 7.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% —
3 4.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% —
4 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% — —
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — — —
Recent form
Santa Catarina Santa Catarina
L Guarany de Bagé 1–0
W Guarany de Bagé 3–0
L Joinville 2–1
D São Luiz 4–4
W Cianorte 1–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 42%
Joinville Joinville
L Cascavel 1–0
D Cascavel 1–1
W Santa Catarina 2–1
W Cianorte 1–2
D Guarany de Bagé 0–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 29%
Playing profile
Santa Catarina Santa Catarina
Attack
38
Defence
67
Form
59
Joinville Joinville
Attack
28
Defence
83
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Santa Catarina
0
Draw
1
Joinville
L 25 Apr 2026 Brasileirão Série D 1–2
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 CSA CSA 6 13
1 Nacional AM Nacional AM 6 13
1 Portuguesa Portuguesa 6 11
1 Águia de Marabá Águia de Marabá 6 12
1 Democrata GV Democrata GV 6 10
1 Iguatu Iguatu 6 14
1 Joinville Joinville 6 11
1 Ferroviario Ferroviario 6 11
1 Blumenau Blumenau 6 13
1 Gama Gama 6 16
1 Uberlandia Uberlandia 6 15
1 ABC ABC 6 13
1 Sergipe Sergipe 6 13
1 Araguaína Araguaína 6 14
1 XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba 6 12
1 Goiatuba EC Goiatuba EC 6 14
2 Vitória ES Vitória ES 6 9
2 Cascavel Cascavel 6 11
2 Manauara Manauara 6 12
2 Água Santa Água Santa 6 10
2 Aparecidense Aparecidense 6 10
2 Guaporé Guaporé 6 14
2 Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 6 13
2 Parnahyba Parnahyba 6 10
2 Marcílio Dias Marcílio Dias 6 11
2 Treze Treze 5 10
2 Ivinhema Ivinhema 6 11
2 Fluminense PI Fluminense PI 6 9
2 Juazeirense Juazeirense 6 12
2 Trem Trem 6 11
2 America-RN America-RN 6 11
2 Velo Clube Velo Clube 6 9
3 Ceilândia Ceilândia 6 7
3 Sousa Sousa 6 9
3 Imperatriz Imperatriz 6 9
3 Piauí Piauí 6 8
3 Porto BA Porto BA 6 9
3 Primavera MG Primavera MG 6 8
3 Noroeste Noroeste 6 8
3 Porto Velho Porto Velho 6 10
3 Cianorte Cianorte 6 9
3 Serra Branca Serra Branca 6 10
3 Sao Raimundo Sao Raimundo 6 9
3 CRAC CRAC 6 8
3 ASA ASA 6 10
3 Portuguesa RJ Portuguesa RJ 6 9
3 Independiente FSJ Independiente FSJ 6 11
3 Maracanã Maracanã 6 9
4 Sampaio Corrêa RJ Sampaio Corrêa RJ 6 8
4 Maguary PE Maguary PE 6 8
4 Mixto Mixto 6 6
4 Tuna Luso Tuna Luso 6 6
4 Moto Club Moto Club 6 8
4 Lagarto Lagarto 6 5
4 CSE CSE 6 7
4 Tombense Tombense 6 9
4 Madureira Madureira 6 7
4 Brasil DE Pelotas Brasil DE Pelotas 6 7
4 São Luiz São Luiz 6 8
4 Betim Betim 6 8
4 Monte Roraima Monte Roraima 6 6
4 Uniclinic Atletico Clube Uniclinic Atletico Clube 6 7
4 Luverdense Luverdense 6 8
4 Galvez Galvez 6 7
5 CFRJ / Maricá CFRJ / Maricá 6 7
5 União Rondonópolis União Rondonópolis 6 5
5 Brasiliense Brasiliense 6 7
5 Jacuipense Jacuipense 6 7
5 Altos Altos 6 7
5 Pouso Alegre Pouso Alegre 6 7
5 Tocantinópolis Tocantinópolis 6 6
5 Santa Catarina Santa Catarina 6 7
5 Sampaio Correa Sampaio Correa 6 4
5 Central SC Central SC 6 8
5 Sao Jose Sao Jose 6 5
5 Manaus FC Manaus FC 6 5
5 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES 6 9
5 Operario Ferroviario Operario Ferroviario 6 3
5 Retrô Retrô 6 5
5 Independência Independência 6 5
6 ABECAT Ouvidorense ABECAT Ouvidorense 6 3
6 Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu 6 3
6 Atlético Alagoinhas Atlético Alagoinhas 6 3
6 Guarany de Bagé Guarany de Bagé 6 4
6 Inhumas Inhumas 6 0
6 Oratório Oratório 6 3
6 Decisão Decisão 5 4
6 CEOV Operário CEOV Operário 6 4
6 Humaitá Humaitá 6 0
6 Tirol/CEFAT Tirol/CEFAT 6 5
6 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste 6 4
6 Laguna Laguna 6 1
6 IAPE IAPE 6 2
6 América RJ América RJ 6 5
6 GAS GAS 6 2
6 Azuriz Azuriz 6 2
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Santa Catarina vs Joinville?
The model gives Santa Catarina a 38% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 29% for an Joinville win.
How many goals are expected in Santa Catarina vs Joinville?
Expected goals: Santa Catarina 1.2, Joinville 0.8 (total 2.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 69%.
What is the most likely score in Santa Catarina vs Joinville?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 16.5%.