Bundesliga · Regular Season - 27 March 21, 2026 15:30 Voith-Arena, Heidenheim an der Brenz

1. FC Heidenheim

3 – 3

Final score

Bayer Leverkusen

#5 · 7 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Bayer Leverkusen, result Draw

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayer Leverkusen a 59% win probability (draw 23%, 1. FC Heidenheim 16%). The final result was 1. FC Heidenheim 3–3 Bayer Leverkusen. In 1 previous meetings, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bayer Leverkusen.

Match statistics

5

Shots on target

5

1.57

Actual xG

1.62

38%

Possession

62%

2

Corners

5

Pre-match prediction

16.97%

1.

23.16%

X ←

59.87%

Bayer

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 23.16% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

1.

0.75

1.57

+0.82

Bayer

1.76

1.62

-0.14

xG dominance was balanced (1.57 – 1.62). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	12
2	Bayern München	4	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	3
17	Union Berlin	4	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0