Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 5
May 20, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction A. Italiano
D. Pina
45'
D. Coelho
(ast. F. Loyola)
88'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave A. Italiano a 56% win probability (draw 23%, Barracas Central 19%). The final result was A. Italiano 2–0 Barracas Central. In 1 previous meetings, A. Italiano have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Barracas Central.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
1
0.85
Actual xG
0.66
1
Saves
5
58%
Possession
42%
3
Corners
8
20
Tackles
21
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
14'
R. Barrios
29'
N. Capraro
⚽D. Pina
45'
46'
F. Bruera
/
R. Barrios
53'
G. Morales
60'
J. Candia
/
I. Tapia
60'
T. Porra
/
M. Duarte
G. Chiaverano
/ F. Loyola
72'
F. Mateos
/ R. Cabral
72'
M. Fuentes
/ V. Zenteno
72'
D. Coelho
73'
73'
F. Bruera
M. Sandoval
80'
80'
E. Taborda
/
D. Miloc
80'
K. Jappert
/
N. Capraro
P. Guajardo
/ D. Monreal
84'
M. Sandoval
/ B. Soto
86'
⚽D. Coelho
· ast. F. Loyola
88'
R. Cabral
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
56.51%
A. ←
23.55%
X
19.94%
Barracas
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (A. Italiano)
56.51%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.78
0.85
-0.93
0.72
0.66
-0.06
xG dominance was balanced (0.85 – 0.66).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Tomás Ahumada
G
Tomás Ahumada
G
4
Daniel Piña
1 ⚽
D
Daniel Piña
1 ⚽
D
13
Enzo Ferrario
D
Enzo Ferrario
D
16
Oliver Rojas
D
Oliver Rojas
D
27
Michael Vadulli
71'
M
Michael Vadulli
71'
M
8
M. Collao
M
M. Collao
M
6
Mario Sandoval
85'
M
Mario Sandoval
85'
M
7
Paolo Guajardo
83'
M
Paolo Guajardo
83'
M
28
Federico Mateos
71'
F
Federico Mateos
71'
F
9
Diego Coelho
1 ⚽
F
Diego Coelho
1 ⚽
F
21
G. Chiaverano
71'
F
G. Chiaverano
71'
F
Bench
32
Bryan Soto
10'
M
Bryan Soto
10'
M
14
Diego Monreal
12'
D
Diego Monreal
12'
D
17
F. Loyola
1 👟
24'
M
F. Loyola
1 👟
24'
M
33
Ignacio Fuenzalida
F
Ignacio Fuenzalida
F
30
Joel Ahumada
F
Joel Ahumada
F
20
Martín Jiménez
D
Martín Jiménez
D
22
Martín Valdés
M
Martín Valdés
M
25
Pedro Garrido
G
Pedro Garrido
G
35
Raimundo Rebolledo
D
Raimundo Rebolledo
D
10
Rodrigo Cabral
24'
F
Rodrigo Cabral
24'
F
19
Tomás Leyton
M
Tomás Leyton
M
2
Vicente Zenteno
24'
M
Vicente Zenteno
24'
M
30
Marcelo Agustín Miño
G
Marcelo Agustín Miño
G
37
Gastón Campi
D
Gastón Campi
D
32
Fernando Tobio
D
Fernando Tobio
D
2
N. Capraro
80'
D
N. Capraro
80'
D
6
R. Insúa
M
R. Insúa
M
10
Iván Tapia
60'
M
Iván Tapia
60'
M
5
Dardo Miloc
80'
M
Dardo Miloc
80'
M
13
Rafael Barrios
45'
M
Rafael Barrios
45'
M
18
Manuel Duarte
60'
F
Manuel Duarte
60'
F
9
J. Morales
52'
F
J. Morales
52'
F
11
Norberto Briasco
F
Norberto Briasco
F
Bench
27
Bruno Váldez
F
Bruno Váldez
F
24
Enzo Taborda
15'
F
Enzo Taborda
15'
F
7
Facundo Bruera
50'
F
Facundo Bruera
50'
F
16
Ivan Guaraz
F
Ivan Guaraz
F
20
Jhonatan Candia
35'
F
Jhonatan Candia
35'
F
1
Juan Espínola
G
Juan Espínola
G
14
Kevin Jappert
15'
M
Kevin Jappert
15'
M
28
Rodrigo Bogarín
M
Rodrigo Bogarín
M
36
Tomas Lavezzi
F
Tomas Lavezzi
F
8
Tomás Porra
35'
M
Tomás Porra
35'
M
22
Valentino Gandín
F
Valentino Gandín
F
15
Yonatthan Rak
D
Yonatthan Rak
D
Best on the pitch
Daniel Piña
D · A.
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 39 pass
Tomás Ahumada
G · A.
7.50
· 35 pass
Diego Coelho
F · A.
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 18 pass
Tomás Porra
M · Barracas
7.20
· 17 pass
Mario Sandoval
M · A.
7.20
· 34 pass
Enzo Ferrario
D · A.
7.20
· 49 pass
A. Italiano — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomás Ahumada | G | 95 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 35 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Piña | D | 95 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 39 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Enzo Ferrario | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 49 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| Oliver Rojas | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 37 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Michael Vadulli | M | 71 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Collao | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 48 | 36% | 4 | — | — |
| Mario Sandoval | M | 85 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Paolo Guajardo | M | 83 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Federico Mateos | F | 71 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Diego Coelho | F | 95 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 18 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| G. Chiaverano | F | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Bryan Soto | M | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Diego Monreal | D | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| F. Loyola | M | 24 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Cabral | F | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Vicente Zenteno | M | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Barracas Central — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcelo Agustín Miño | G | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Gastón Campi | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Fernando Tobio | D | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Capraro | D | 80 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Insúa | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Iván Tapia | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Dardo Miloc | M | 80 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Rafael Barrios | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Manuel Duarte | F | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 9 | 5% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Morales | F | 52 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 4% | 1 | — | 1 |
| Norberto Briasco | F | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 12% | 4 | — | — |
| Enzo Taborda | F | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Facundo Bruera | F | 50 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Jhonatan Candia | F | 35 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Jappert | M | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Tomás Porra | M | 35 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of A. Italiano vs Barracas Central?
The final score was A. Italiano 2–0 Barracas Central.
What did the model predict before A. Italiano vs Barracas Central?
The model assigned 56% probability to a A. Italiano win, 23% to a draw, and 19% to an Barracas Central win.