← Copa Sudamericana
Copa Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4 May 07, 2026 00:00
A. Italiano
#3 · 4 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Vasco DA Gama
#1 · 7 pts
Alan Saldivia 5' (og)
(pen.) 64' Claudio Spinelli
71' (ast. Nuno Moreira) Matheus França

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Vasco DA Gama a 48% win probability (draw 24%, A. Italiano 27%). The final result was A. Italiano 1–2 Vasco DA Gama. In 1 previous meetings, A. Italiano have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Vasco DA Gama.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
15
3
Shots on target
9
0.38
Actual xG
2.82
7
Saves
3
46%
Possession
54%
5
Corners
6
18
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
⚽Alan Saldivia (og)
5'
42'
46'
Matheus França / JP ↕
46'
Ramon Rique / Tchê Tchê ↕
Tomás Ahumada
51'
Marco Collao
53'
57'
Matheus França
61'
Marcelo Ortíz
62'
Michael Vadulli
63'
64'
(pen.) Claudio Spinelli⚽
71'
ast. Nuno Moreira · Matheus França⚽
↕ Vicente Zenteno / Oliver Rojas
72'
76'
Cauan Barros
77'
Lucas Piton
↕ Giovani Chiaverano / Rodrigo Cabral
83'
↕ Michael Vadulli / Ignacio Fuenzalida
83'
↕ Mario Sandoval / Favian Loyola
83'
89'
Riquelme Avellar / Nuno Moreira ↕
89'
Walace / Lucas Piton ↕
89'
Lukas Zuccarello / Marino Hinestroza ↕
90'+6
Alan Saldivia
↕ Marco Collao / Diego Coelho
90'
Pre-match prediction
27.25%
A.
24.66%
X
48.1%
Vasco ←
we assigned to the actual result (Vasco DA Gama) 48.1% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
A.
1.01
0.38
-0.63
Vasco
1.62
2.82
+1.19
Vasco DA Gama dominated by xG (2.82 vs 0.38). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 4 9
1 Cienciano Cienciano 4 7
1 Botafogo Botafogo 4 10
1 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 4 7
1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 4 8
1 River Plate River Plate 4 10
1 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 4 6
1 Macara Macara 4 8
2 Gremio Gremio 4 7
2 Olimpia Olimpia 4 7
2 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 4 6
2 America de Cali America de Cali 4 7
2 Puerto Cabello Puerto Cabello 4 6
2 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 4 5
2 O'Higgins O'Higgins 4 7
2 Caracas FC Caracas FC 4 8
3 Racing Club Racing Club 4 4
3 Juventud Juventud 4 5
3 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 4 4
3 Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 4 4
3 Carabobo FC Carabobo FC 4 6
3 Tigre Tigre 4 5
3 A. Italiano A. Italiano 4 4
3 Millonarios Millonarios 4 7
4 Barracas Central Barracas Central 4 3
4 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 4 1
4 Santos Santos 4 3
4 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 4 4
4 Boston River Boston River 4 0
4 Blooming Blooming 4 1
4 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 4 0
4 Palestino Palestino 4 2
Lineups
A. Italiano A. Italiano
1
J. Ahumada G 7.50
7
P. Guajardo D 6.50
13
E. Ferrario D 6.60
29
Marcelo Ortíz 62' D 5.50
4
Daniel Piña D 6.20
23 E. Matus E. Matus D 6.20
6
Mario Sandoval 83' M 6.00
8 M. Collao M. Collao 89' M 6.70
2
Vicente Zenteno 72' M 6.30
21 G. Chiaverano G. Chiaverano 83' F 6.50
27
M. Fuentes 83' F 5.60
Bench
9
D. Coelho 1' F
17
Favian Loyola 14' M 7.00
16
O. J. Rojas Munoz 18' M 7.20
10
R. Cabral 14' F 6.70
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
13
G 6.30
96
Paulo Henrique D 7.30
4 Alan Saldivia Alan Saldivia 1 ⚽ D 6.30
43 Lucas Freitas Lucas Freitas D 7.20
6 Lucas Piton Lucas Piton 89' D 6.20
88
Cauan Barros M 7.00
3 Tchê Tchê Tchê Tchê 45' M 6.30
18 Marino Hinestroza Marino Hinestroza 89' M 6.90
98 JP JP 45' M 6.90
17 Nuno Moreira Nuno Moreira 1 👟 89' M 6.90
77 Claudio Spinelli Claudio Spinelli 1 ⚽ F 7.60
Bench
86
Lukas Zuccarello 8' M 6.90
9 Matheus França Matheus França 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.90
83 Ramon Rique Ramon Rique 45' M 6.90
82 Riquelme Avellar Riquelme Avellar 8' D 6.90
Best on the pitch
Matheus França
Matheus França
F · Vasco
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 13 pass
Claudio Spinelli
Claudio Spinelli
F · Vasco
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots · 9 pass
J. Ahumada
G · A.
7.50
· 35 pass
Paulo Henrique
D · Vasco
7.30
· 45 pass
O. J. Rojas Munoz
M · A.
7.20
· 10 pass
Lucas Freitas
Lucas Freitas
D · Vasco
7.20
· 48 pass
A. Italiano A. Italiano — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Ahumada G 90 7.50 — — — 35 29% — 1 —
P. Guajardo D 90 6.50 — — 3 20 16% 2 — —
E. Ferrario D 90 6.60 — — — 29 21% 4 — —
Marcelo Ortíz D 62 5.50 — — — 18 13% — — 1
Daniel Piña D 90 6.20 — — — 44 35% 2 — —
E. Matus D 90 6.20 — — — 23 17% 2 — —
Mario Sandoval M 83 6.00 — — — 16 11% — — —
M. Collao M 89 6.70 — — 2 40 33% 3 1 —
Vicente Zenteno M 72 6.30 — — — 20 17% 2 — —
G. Chiaverano F 83 6.50 — — 1 24 18% — — —
M. Fuentes F 83 5.60 — — 1 18 9% 2 1 —
D. Coelho F 1 — — — — — — — — —
Favian Loyola M 14 7.00 — — 1 8 8% — — —
O. J. Rojas Munoz M 18 7.20 — — — 10 7% 1 — —
R. Cabral F 14 6.70 — — — 6 6% — — —
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.30 — — — 20 13% — — —
Paulo Henrique D 90 7.30 — — — 45 35% 2 — —
Alan Saldivia D 90 6.30 1 — 2 42 36% 1 1 —
Lucas Freitas D 90 7.20 — — — 48 41% 2 — —
Lucas Piton D 89 6.20 — — 2 43 35% 3 1 —
Cauan Barros M 90 7.00 — — 2 45 43% 2 1 —
Tchê Tchê M 45 6.30 — — — 16 14% — — —
Marino Hinestroza M 89 6.90 — — 1 22 16% 1 — —
JP M 45 6.90 — — 1 18 13% 1 — —
Nuno Moreira M 89 6.90 — 1 — 27 26% 1 — —
Claudio Spinelli F 90 7.60 1 — 3 9 3% — — —
Lukas Zuccarello M 8 6.90 — — 1 4 4% — — —
Matheus França F 45 7.90 1 — 2 13 11% — 1 —
Ramon Rique M 45 6.90 — — — 21 19% 1 — —
Riquelme Avellar D 8 6.90 — — 1 2 1% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of A. Italiano vs Vasco DA Gama?
The final score was A. Italiano 1–2 Vasco DA Gama.
What did the model predict before A. Italiano vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model assigned 27% probability to a A. Italiano win, 24% to a draw, and 48% to an Vasco DA Gama win.