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Scottish Premiership · Regular Season - 9 October 17, 2026 16:00 Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen
Aberdeen
#9 · 11 pts
3 – 1
Final score
ST Mirren
#6 · 13 pts
Brad Lyons (ast. Connor Patrick Ronan) 2'
Kevin Nisbet 58'
Ayoub Mouloua (ast. Afeez Aremu Olalekan) 72'
42' (ast. Killian Phillips) Eseosa Sule
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Aberdeen a 34% win probability (draw 37%, ST Mirren 28%). The final result was Aberdeen 3–1 ST Mirren. In 4 previous meetings, Aberdeen have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for ST Mirren.

Match statistics
17
Total shots
13
7
Shots on target
7
2.33
Actual xG
0.98
6
Saves
4
34%
Possession
66%
2
Corners
6
15
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Brad Lyons · ast. Connor Patrick Ronan
2'
31'
Ryan Carr
42'
ast. Killian Phillips · Eseosa Sule⚽
↕ Connor Patrick Ronan / Stuart Armstrong
45'
↕ Brad Lyons / Tony Yogane
45'
56'
Paul Nsio
58'
⚽Kevin Nisbet (missed pen.)
58'
⚽Kevin Nisbet
58'
59'
Samuel Antonio Ramos Linares / Luke Thomas ↕
67'
Fraser Taylor / Paul Nsio ↕
↕ Toyosi Olusanya / Ayoub Mouloua
71'
⚽Ayoub Mouloua · ast. Afeez Aremu Olalekan
72'
74'
Jake Young / Eseosa Sule ↕
↕ Lewis Smith / Emmanuel Gyamfi
76'
Stuart Armstrong
77'
↕ Kevin Nisbet / Findlay Marshall
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
34.28%
Aberdeen ←
37.52%
X
28.2%
ST
we assigned to the actual result (Aberdeen) 34.28% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Aberdeen
0.60
2.33
+1.73
ST
0.50
0.98
+0.48
Aberdeen dominated by xG (2.33 vs 0.98). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Celtic Celtic 10 27
2 Rangers Rangers 10 23
3 Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian 10 19
4 Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 10 15
5 Dundee Dundee 10 14
6 ST Mirren ST Mirren 10 13
7 Falkirk Falkirk 10 12
8 ST Johnstone ST Johnstone 10 12
9 Aberdeen Aberdeen 10 11
10 Motherwell Motherwell 10 8
11 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 10 8
12 Hibernian Hibernian 10 7
Lineups
Aberdeen Aberdeen 4-2-3-1
27 M. Müller M. Müller G 7.68
24 N. Guinness-Walker N. Guinness-Walker D 7.01
5 M. Knoester M. Knoester D 6.31
23 L. Mayo L. Mayo D 6.63
28 C. Cadden C. Cadden D 6.17
32 A. Aremu A. Aremu 1 👟 M 7.38
8 B. Lyons B. Lyons 1 ⚽ 45' M 7.61
20 T. Olusanya T. Olusanya 71' M 6.21
25 C. Ronan C. Ronan 1 👟 45' M 6.81
11 Lewis Smith Lewis Smith 76' M 6.63
15 K. Nisbet K. Nisbet 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.32
Bench
9 A. Mouloua A. Mouloua 1 ⚽ 19' F 7.67
26 D. Happe D. Happe D 0.00
30 D. Klein D. Klein G 0.00
77 E. Gyamfi E. Gyamfi 14' D 6.07
40 F. Marshall F. Marshall 1' M 0.00
21 G. Molloy G. Molloy D 0.00
22 J. Milne J. Milne D 0.00
17 S. Armstrong S. Armstrong 45' M 6.43
7 Tony Yogane Tony Yogane 45' F 6.51
ST Mirren ST Mirren 4-4-2
1 J. Chapman J. Chapman G 6.87
3 D. John D. John D 6.23
22 M. Fraser M. Fraser D 6.51
13 A. Gogić A. Gogić D 6.17
47 C. Ramsay C. Ramsay D 6.10
19 Ismeal Kabia Ismeal Kabia M 5.90
48 P. Nsio P. Nsio 67' M 5.45
8 R. Carr R. Carr M 5.88
16 L. Thomas L. Thomas 59' M 6.63
88 K. Phillips K. Phillips 1 👟 F 7.36
9 Eseosa Sule Eseosa Sule 1 ⚽ 74' F 7.52
Bench
37 C. McEvoy C. McEvoy M 0.00
23 C. Mochrie C. Mochrie M 0.00
30 F. Taylor F. Taylor 23' M 6.27
53 Henry Fieldson Henry Fieldson D 0.00
20 J. Young J. Young 16' F 6.35
4 L. Donnelly L. Donnelly M 0.00
6 Louis Jackson Louis Jackson D 0.00
10 Samu Samu 31' M 5.97
Best on the pitch
M. Müller
M. Müller
G · Aberdeen
7.68
· 30 pass
A. Mouloua
A. Mouloua
F · Aberdeen
7.67
1 ⚽
2 shots · 9 pass
B. Lyons
B. Lyons
M · Aberdeen
7.61
1 ⚽
1 shots · 14 pass
Eseosa Sule
Eseosa Sule
F · ST
7.52
1 ⚽
3 shots · 5 pass
A. Aremu
A. Aremu
M · Aberdeen
7.38
1 👟
· 32 pass
K. Phillips
K. Phillips
F · ST
7.36
1 👟
2 shots · 33 pass
Aberdeen Aberdeen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Müller G 90 7.68 — — 0 30 16% 0 — —
N. Guinness-Walker D 90 7.01 — — 0 22 18% 1 — —
M. Knoester D 90 6.31 — — 0 28 23% 2 — —
L. Mayo D 90 6.63 — — 1 30 25% 2 — —
C. Cadden D 90 6.17 — — 0 28 16% 2 — —
A. Aremu M 90 7.38 — 1 0 32 28% 3 — —
B. Lyons M 45 7.61 1 — 1 14 9% 0 — —
T. Olusanya M 71 6.21 — — 1 13 12% 0 — —
C. Ronan M 45 6.81 — 1 1 13 9% 0 — —
Lewis Smith M 76 6.63 — — 1 15 8% 3 — —
K. Nisbet F 89 7.32 1 — 7 11 7% 1 — —
A. Mouloua F 19 7.67 1 — 2 9 5% 1 — —
E. Gyamfi D 14 6.07 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
F. Marshall M 1 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
S. Armstrong M 45 6.43 — — 0 21 18% 0 1 —
Tony Yogane F 45 6.51 — — 3 6 4% 0 — —
ST Mirren ST Mirren — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Chapman G 90 6.87 — — 0 40 33% 0 — —
D. John D 90 6.23 — — 1 78 66% 0 — —
M. Fraser D 90 6.51 — — 0 74 67% 2 — —
A. Gogić D 90 6.17 — — 0 65 55% 1 — —
C. Ramsay D 90 6.10 — — 1 54 43% 2 — —
Ismeal Kabia M 90 5.90 — — 2 25 19% 2 — —
P. Nsio M 67 5.45 — — 0 36 26% 0 1 —
R. Carr M 90 5.88 — — 1 64 54% 4 1 —
L. Thomas M 59 6.63 — — 1 27 21% 1 — —
K. Phillips F 90 7.36 — 1 2 33 31% 0 — —
Eseosa Sule F 74 7.52 1 — 3 5 2% 1 — —
F. Taylor M 23 6.27 — — 2 23 19% 0 — —
J. Young F 16 6.35 — — 0 5 3% 0 — —
Samu M 31 5.97 — — 0 18 13% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?
The final score was Aberdeen 3–1 ST Mirren.
What did the model predict before Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Aberdeen win, 37% to a draw, and 28% to an ST Mirren win.