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Serie A · Regular Season - 36 May 10, 2026 20:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
AC Milan
#5 · 11 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Atalanta
#11 · 6 pts
S. Pavlovic (ast. S. Ricci) 88'
C. Nkunku 90'+4 (pen.)
7' Ederson
29' (ast. N. Krstovic) D. Zappacosta
51' (ast. Ederson) G. Raspadori
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atalanta a 37% win probability (draw 34%, AC Milan 28%). The final result was AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta. In 1 previous meetings, AC Milan have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Atalanta.

Match statistics
17
Total shots
7
9
Shots on target
5
1.94
Actual xG
1.08
2
Saves
8
57%
Possession
43%
2
Corners
2
13
Tackles
17
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
7'
Ederson⚽
29'
ast. N. Krstovic · D. Zappacosta⚽
R. Leao
34'
↕ R. Loftus-Cheek / C. Nkunku
46'
48'
O. Kossounou / G. Scalvini ↕
51'
ast. Ederson · G. Raspadori⚽
55'
R. Bellanova / D. Zappacosta ↕
↕ R. Leao / Y. Fofana
58'
↕ S. Gimenez / N. Fullkrug
58'
↕ K. De Winter / Z. Athekame
58'
63'
H. Ahanor / O. Kossounou ↕
63'
M. Pasalic / C. De Ketelaere ↕
70'
I. Hien
↕ D. Bartesaghi / P. Estupinan
80'
⚽S. Pavlovic · ast. S. Ricci
88'
P. Estupinan
89'
⚽C. Nkunku (pen.)
90'+4
90'+5
N. Krstovic
90'+6
R. Bellanova
A. Saelemaekers
90'
Pre-match prediction
28.01%
AC
34.23%
X
37.76%
Atalanta ←
we assigned to the actual result (Atalanta) 37.76% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
AC
0.64
1.94
+1.3
Atalanta
1.03
1.08
+0.05
AC Milan dominated by xG (1.94 vs 1.08). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 AS Roma AS Roma 5 13
2 Inter Inter 5 13
3 Lazio Lazio 5 13
4 Cagliari Cagliari 5 12
5 AC Milan AC Milan 5 11
6 Frosinone Frosinone 5 10
7 Juventus Juventus 5 10
8 Como Como 5 10
9 Napoli Napoli 5 7
10 Sassuolo Sassuolo 5 7
11 Atalanta Atalanta 5 6
12 Lecce Lecce 5 6
13 Udinese Udinese 5 4
14 Torino Torino 5 4
15 Parma Parma 5 4
16 Monza Monza 5 4
17 Fiorentina Fiorentina 5 4
18 Bologna Bologna 5 2
19 Genoa Genoa 5 1
20 Venezia Venezia 5 0
Lineups
AC Milan AC Milan 3-5-2
16 M. Maignan M. Maignan G 6.20
31 S. Pavlović S. Pavlović 1 ⚽ D 7.30
46 Matteo Gabbia Matteo Gabbia D 6.70
5 K. De Winter K. De Winter 58' D 6.00
33 Davide Bartesaghi Davide Bartesaghi 80' M 6.30
12 A. Rabiot A. Rabiot M 6.90
4 S. Ricci S. Ricci 1 👟 M 7.60
8 Ruben Loftus-Cheek Ruben Loftus-Cheek 45' M 6.50
56 A. Saelemaekers A. Saelemaekers M 6.90
10 Rafael Leão Rafael Leão 58' F 6.60
7 Santiago Giménez Santiago Giménez 58' F 6.90
Bench
30 A. Jashari A. Jashari M
18 C. Nkunku C. Nkunku 1 ⚽ 45' F 8.50
27 D. Odogu D. Odogu D
37 Matteo Pittarella Matteo Pittarella G
9 N. Füllkrug N. Füllkrug 32' F 6.60
2 Pervis Estupiñán Pervis Estupiñán 10' D 7.00
1 Pietro Terracciano Pietro Terracciano G
19 Y. Fofana Y. Fofana 32' M 6.70
24 Z. Athekame Z. Athekame 32' D 6.90
Atalanta Atalanta 3-4-2-1
29 M. Carnesecchi M. Carnesecchi G 8.70
23 S. Kolašinac S. Kolašinac D 6.20
4 I. Hien I. Hien D 6.90
42 G. Scalvini G. Scalvini 48' D 6.90
59 N. Zalewski N. Zalewski M 6.70
13 Éderson Éderson 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.20
15 Marten de Roon Marten de Roon M 6.20
77 Davide Zappacosta Davide Zappacosta 1 ⚽ 55' M 7.20
18 G. Raspadori G. Raspadori 1 ⚽ F 7.30
17 C. De Ketelaere C. De Ketelaere 63' F 6.30
90 N. Krstović N. Krstović 1 👟 F 6.00
Bench
45 D. Vavassori D. Vavassori F
31 Francesco Rossi Francesco Rossi G
9 G. Scamacca G. Scamacca F
69 H. Ahanor H. Ahanor 27' D 6.30
7 K. Sulemana K. Sulemana F
10 L. Samardžić L. Samardžić M
57 Marco Sportiello Marco Sportiello G
8 Mario Pasalic Mario Pasalic 27' M 6.60
5 Mitchel Bakker Mitchel Bakker D
3 Odilon Kossounou Odilon Kossounou 15' D 6.60
16 Raoul Bellanova Raoul Bellanova 35' D 6.30
40 Relja Obrić Relja Obrić D
6 Yunus Musah Yunus Musah M
Best on the pitch
M. Carnesecchi
M. Carnesecchi
G · Atalanta
8.70
· 43 pass
C. Nkunku
C. Nkunku
F · AC
8.50
1 ⚽
4 shots · 20 pass
Éderson
Éderson
M · Atalanta
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 40 pass
S. Ricci
S. Ricci
M · AC
7.60
1 👟
· 51 pass
S. Pavlović
S. Pavlović
D · AC
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 73 pass
G. Raspadori
G. Raspadori
F · Atalanta
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 28 pass
AC Milan AC Milan — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Maignan G 90 6.20 — — — 21 19% — — —
S. Pavlović D 90 7.30 1 — 2 73 69% 2 — —
Matteo Gabbia D 90 6.70 — — 1 70 62% 3 — —
K. De Winter D 58 6.00 — — — 65 56% 1 — —
Davide Bartesaghi M 80 6.30 — — — 41 34% — — —
A. Rabiot M 90 6.90 — — 3 42 39% 1 1 —
S. Ricci M 90 7.60 — 1 — 51 48% 2 — —
Ruben Loftus-Cheek M 45 6.50 — — — 22 21% — — —
A. Saelemaekers M 90 6.90 — — 1 37 31% 2 1 —
Rafael Leão F 58 6.60 — — 3 25 20% 1 1 —
Santiago Giménez F 58 6.90 — — 2 16 13% 1 — —
C. Nkunku F 45 8.50 1 — 4 20 19% — — —
N. Füllkrug F 32 6.60 — — — 14 12% — — —
Pervis Estupiñán D 10 7.00 — — — 10 8% — 1 —
Y. Fofana M 32 6.70 — — — 19 15% — — —
Z. Athekame D 32 6.90 — — 1 15 12% — — —
Atalanta Atalanta — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Carnesecchi G 90 8.70 — — — 43 19% — — —
S. Kolašinac D 90 6.20 — — — 40 38% 1 — —
I. Hien D 90 6.90 — — — 37 36% 4 1 —
G. Scalvini D 48 6.90 — — — 25 21% 1 — —
N. Zalewski M 90 6.70 — — 1 34 26% 1 — —
Éderson M 90 8.20 1 1 1 40 37% 2 — —
Marten de Roon M 90 6.20 — — — 47 37% 3 — —
Davide Zappacosta M 55 7.20 1 — 1 21 16% — — —
G. Raspadori F 90 7.30 1 — 2 28 22% 2 — —
C. De Ketelaere F 63 6.30 — — — 39 31% 1 — —
N. Krstović F 90 6.00 — 1 2 21 18% 1 1 —
H. Ahanor D 27 6.30 — — — 10 9% 1 — —
Mario Pasalic M 27 6.60 — — — 8 6% — — —
Odilon Kossounou D 15 6.60 — — — 7 7% — — —
Raoul Bellanova D 35 6.30 — — — 11 7% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AC Milan vs Atalanta?
The final score was AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta.
What did the model predict before AC Milan vs Atalanta?
The model assigned 28% probability to a AC Milan win, 34% to a draw, and 37% to an Atalanta win.