← Serie A
Serie A · Regular Season - 36 May 10, 2026 20:45
AC Milan
#4 · 67 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Atalanta
#7 · 58 pts
S. Pavlovic (ast. S. Ricci) 88'
C. Nkunku 90'+4 (pen.)
7' Ederson
29' (ast. N. Krstovic) D. Zappacosta
51' (ast. Ederson) G. Raspadori

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atalanta a 37% win probability (draw 34%, AC Milan 28%). The final result was AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta. In 1 previous meetings, AC Milan have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Atalanta.

Match statistics
17
Total shots
7
9
Shots on target
5
1.94
Actual xG
1.08
2
Saves
8
57%
Possession
43%
2
Corners
2
13
Tackles
17
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
7'
Ederson⚽
29'
ast. N. Krstovic · D. Zappacosta⚽
R. Leao
34'
↕ R. Loftus-Cheek / C. Nkunku
46'
48'
O. Kossounou / G. Scalvini ↕
51'
ast. Ederson · G. Raspadori⚽
55'
R. Bellanova / D. Zappacosta ↕
↕ R. Leao / Y. Fofana
58'
↕ S. Gimenez / N. Fullkrug
58'
↕ K. De Winter / Z. Athekame
58'
63'
H. Ahanor / O. Kossounou ↕
63'
M. Pasalic / C. De Ketelaere ↕
70'
I. Hien
↕ D. Bartesaghi / P. Estupinan
80'
⚽S. Pavlovic · ast. S. Ricci
88'
P. Estupinan
89'
⚽C. Nkunku (pen.)
90'+4
90'+5
N. Krstovic
90'+6
R. Bellanova
A. Saelemaekers
90'
Pre-match prediction
28.01%
AC
34.23%
X
37.76%
Atalanta ←
we assigned to the actual result (Atalanta) 37.76% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
AC
0.64
1.94
+1.3
Atalanta
1.03
1.08
+0.05
AC Milan dominated by xG (1.94 vs 1.08). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Inter Inter 36 85
2 Napoli Napoli 36 70
3 Juventus Juventus 36 68
4 AC Milan AC Milan 36 67
5 AS Roma AS Roma 36 67
6 Como Como 36 65
7 Atalanta Atalanta 36 58
8 Bologna Bologna 36 52
9 Lazio Lazio 36 51
10 Udinese Udinese 36 50
11 Sassuolo Sassuolo 36 49
12 Torino Torino 36 44
13 Parma Parma 36 42
14 Genoa Genoa 36 41
15 Fiorentina Fiorentina 36 38
16 Cagliari Cagliari 36 37
17 Lecce Lecce 36 32
18 Cremonese Cremonese 36 31
19 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 36 20
20 Pisa Pisa 36 18
Lineups
AC Milan AC Milan 3-5-2
16 Mike Maignan Mike Maignan G 6.20
31 S. Pavlović S. Pavlović 1 ⚽ D 7.30
46 Matteo Gabbia Matteo Gabbia D 6.70
5 Koni De Winter Koni De Winter 58' D 6.00
33 Davide Bartesaghi Davide Bartesaghi 80' M 6.30
12 A. Rabiot A. Rabiot M 6.90
4 Samuele Ricci Samuele Ricci 1 👟 M 7.60
8 Ruben Loftus-Cheek Ruben Loftus-Cheek 45' M 6.50
56 A. Saelemaekers A. Saelemaekers M 6.90
10 Rafael Leão Rafael Leão 58' F 6.60
7 S. Giménez S. Giménez 58' F 6.90
Bench
30 Ardon Jashari Ardon Jashari M
18 Christopher Nkunku Christopher Nkunku 1 ⚽ 45' F 8.50
27 David Odogu David Odogu D
37 Matteo Pittarella Matteo Pittarella G
9 N. Füllkrug N. Füllkrug 32' F 6.60
2 Pervis Estupiñán Pervis Estupiñán 10' D 7.00
1 Pietro Terracciano Pietro Terracciano G
19 Youssouf Fofana Youssouf Fofana 32' M 6.70
24 Zachary Athekame Zachary Athekame 32' D 6.90
Atalanta Atalanta 3-4-2-1
29 Marco Carnesecchi Marco Carnesecchi G 8.70
23 Sead Kolašinac Sead Kolašinac D 6.20
4 Isak Hien Isak Hien D 6.90
42 Giorgio Scalvini Giorgio Scalvini 48' D 6.90
59 Nicola Zalewski Nicola Zalewski M 6.70
13 Éderson Éderson 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.20
15 Marten de Roon Marten de Roon M 6.20
77 Davide Zappacosta Davide Zappacosta 1 ⚽ 55' M 7.20
18 Giacomo Raspadori Giacomo Raspadori 1 ⚽ F 7.30
17 C. De Ketelaere C. De Ketelaere 63' F 6.30
90 N. Krstović N. Krstović 1 👟 F 6.00
Bench
45 Dominic Vavassori Dominic Vavassori F
31 Francesco Rossi Francesco Rossi G
9 G. Scamacca G. Scamacca F
69 Honest Ahanor Honest Ahanor 27' D 6.30
7 K. Sulemana K. Sulemana F
10 Lazar Samardžić Lazar Samardžić M
57 Marco Sportiello Marco Sportiello G
5 Mitchel Bakker Mitchel Bakker D
8 M. Pašalić M. Pašalić 27' M 6.60
3 Odilon Kossounou Odilon Kossounou 15' D 6.60
16 Raoul Bellanova Raoul Bellanova 35' D 6.30
40 Relja Obrić Relja Obrić D
6 Yunus Musah Yunus Musah M
Best on the pitch
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi
G · Atalanta
8.70
· 43 pass
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku
F · AC
8.50
1 ⚽
4 shots · 20 pass
Éderson
Éderson
M · Atalanta
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 40 pass
Samuele Ricci
Samuele Ricci
M · AC
7.60
1 👟
· 51 pass
S. Pavlović
S. Pavlović
D · AC
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 73 pass
Giacomo Raspadori
Giacomo Raspadori
F · Atalanta
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 28 pass
AC Milan AC Milan — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Mike Maignan G 90 6.20 — — — 21 19% — — —
S. Pavlović D 90 7.30 1 — 2 73 69% 2 — —
Matteo Gabbia D 90 6.70 — — 1 70 62% 3 — —
Koni De Winter D 58 6.00 — — — 65 56% 1 — —
Davide Bartesaghi M 80 6.30 — — — 41 34% — — —
A. Rabiot M 90 6.90 — — 3 42 39% 1 1 —
Samuele Ricci M 90 7.60 — 1 — 51 48% 2 — —
Ruben Loftus-Cheek M 45 6.50 — — — 22 21% — — —
A. Saelemaekers M 90 6.90 — — 1 37 31% 2 1 —
Rafael Leão F 58 6.60 — — 3 25 20% 1 1 —
S. Giménez F 58 6.90 — — 2 16 13% 1 — —
Christopher Nkunku F 45 8.50 1 — 4 20 19% — — —
N. Füllkrug F 32 6.60 — — — 14 12% — — —
Pervis Estupiñán D 10 7.00 — — — 10 8% — 1 —
Youssouf Fofana M 32 6.70 — — — 19 15% — — —
Zachary Athekame D 32 6.90 — — 1 15 12% — — —
Atalanta Atalanta — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Marco Carnesecchi G 90 8.70 — — — 43 19% — — —
Sead Kolašinac D 90 6.20 — — — 40 38% 1 — —
Isak Hien D 90 6.90 — — — 37 36% 4 1 —
Giorgio Scalvini D 48 6.90 — — — 25 21% 1 — —
Nicola Zalewski M 90 6.70 — — 1 34 26% 1 — —
Éderson M 90 8.20 1 1 1 40 37% 2 — —
Marten de Roon M 90 6.20 — — — 47 37% 3 — —
Davide Zappacosta M 55 7.20 1 — 1 21 16% — — —
Giacomo Raspadori F 90 7.30 1 — 2 28 22% 2 — —
C. De Ketelaere F 63 6.30 — — — 39 31% 1 — —
N. Krstović F 90 6.00 — 1 2 21 18% 1 1 —
Honest Ahanor D 27 6.30 — — — 10 9% 1 — —
M. Pašalić M 27 6.60 — — — 8 6% — — —
Odilon Kossounou D 15 6.60 — — — 7 7% — — —
Raoul Bellanova D 35 6.30 — — — 11 7% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AC Milan vs Atalanta?
The final score was AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta.
What did the model predict before AC Milan vs Atalanta?
The model assigned 28% probability to a AC Milan win, 34% to a draw, and 37% to an Atalanta win.