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Serie A · Regular Season - 7 October 18, 2026 18:00 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
AC Milan
#5 · 18 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Atalanta
#11 · 10 pts
Gonçalo Ramos 24' (pen.)
Adrien Rabiot (ast. Diego Moreira) 43'
Mario Gila (ast. Adrien Rabiot) 57'
66' (ast. Nicola Zalewski) Gianluca Gaetano
81' (ast. Raoul Bellanova) Nikola Krstović
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave AC Milan a 42% win probability (draw 30%, Atalanta 26%). The final result was AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta. In 2 previous meetings, AC Milan have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Atalanta.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
12
6
Shots on target
4
2.53
Actual xG
1.71
2
Saves
3
56%
Possession
44%
2
Corners
2
20
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
13'
20'
Relja Obric / Sead Kolašinac ↕
22'
⚽Gonçalo Ramos (pen.)
24'
Adrien Rabiot
41'
⚽Adrien Rabiot · ast. Diego Moreira
43'
↕ Samuel Chukwueze / Omari Hutchinson
53'
55'
⚽Gonçalo Ramos (missed pen.)
57'
⚽Mario Gila · ast. Adrien Rabiot
57'
59'
Gianluca Gaetano / Mario Pašalić ↕
59'
Nicola Zalewski / Jonathan Rowe ↕
66'
ast. Nicola Zalewski · Gianluca Gaetano⚽
68'
Éderson José dos Santos
75'
Gianluca Scamacca / Lazar Samardzic ↕
75'
Davide Zappacosta / Lorenzo Bernasconi ↕
↕ Christian Pulisic / Ardon Jashari
75'
↕ Yunus Musah / Pervis Estupinan
75'
↕ Luka Modrić / Ruben Loftus-Cheek
75'
78'
Relja Obric
81'
ast. Raoul Bellanova · Nikola Krstović⚽
↕ Mario Gila / Fikayo Tomori
84'
Pre-match prediction
42.74%
AC ←
30.56%
X
26.7%
Atalanta
we assigned to the actual result (AC Milan) 42.74% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
AC
1.18
2.53
+1.35
Atalanta
0.60
1.71
+1.11
AC Milan dominated by xG (2.53 vs 1.71). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Lazio Lazio 9 25
2 Inter Inter 8 22
3 AS Roma AS Roma 9 21
4 Como Como 9 20
5 AC Milan AC Milan 8 18
6 Frosinone Frosinone 8 14
7 Juventus Juventus 8 14
8 Torino Torino 9 13
9 Cagliari Cagliari 9 13
10 Napoli Napoli 8 11
11 Atalanta Atalanta 8 10
12 Lecce Lecce 8 9
13 Bologna Bologna 8 8
14 Sassuolo Sassuolo 9 8
15 Monza Monza 8 7
16 Genoa Genoa 8 7
17 Udinese Udinese 8 4
18 Fiorentina Fiorentina 8 4
19 Parma Parma 8 4
20 Venezia Venezia 8 3
Lineups
AC Milan AC Milan 3-4-3
16 M. Maignan M. Maignan G 6.12
31 S. Pavlović S. Pavlović D 6.80
5 K. De Winter K. De Winter D 6.68
34 Mario Gila Mario Gila 1 ⚽ 84' D 7.90
22 Diego Moreira Diego Moreira 1 👟 M 7.25
14 L. Modrić L. Modrić 75' M 6.80
80 Y. Musah Y. Musah 75' M 6.68
21 S. Chukwueze S. Chukwueze 53' M 6.14
11 C. Pulišić C. Pulišić 75' F 6.29
9 Gonçalo Ramos Gonçalo Ramos 1 ⚽ F 7.02
12 A. Rabiot A. Rabiot 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 9.00
Bench
70 A. Cissè A. Cissè M 0.00
30 A. Jashari A. Jashari 15' M 6.35
28 C. Comotto C. Comotto M 0.00
33 D. Bartesaghi D. Bartesaghi D 0.00
73 F. Camarda F. Camarda F 0.00
42 F. Terracciano F. Terracciano D 0.00
23 F. Tomori F. Tomori 6' D 6.37
41 L. P. Bouyer L. P. Bouyer G 0.00
96 L. Torriani L. Torriani G 0.00
20 O. Hutchinson O. Hutchinson 37' F 6.90
2 P. Estupiñán P. Estupiñán 15' D 5.95
8 R. Loftus-Cheek R. Loftus-Cheek 15' M 5.94
13 S. Bocoum S. Bocoum D 0.00
35 V. Vladimirov V. Vladimirov D 0.00
Atalanta Atalanta 4-3-3
29 M. Carnesecchi M. Carnesecchi G 6.46
47 L. Bernasconi L. Bernasconi 75' D 6.12
23 S. Kolašinac S. Kolašinac 20' D 5.84
31 T. Kristensen T. Kristensen D 6.17
16 R. Bellanova R. Bellanova 1 👟 D 6.98
8 Mario Pasalic Mario Pasalic 59' M 6.42
13 Éderson Éderson M 6.29
10 L. Samardžić L. Samardžić 75' M 6.29
11 J. Rowe J. Rowe 59' F 6.78
90 N. Krstović N. Krstović 1 ⚽ F 7.58
17 C. De Ketelaere C. De Ketelaere F 6.19
Bench
77 D. Zappacosta D. Zappacosta 15' D 5.88
70 G. Gaetano G. Gaetano 1 ⚽ 31' M 7.16
9 G. Scamacca G. Scamacca 15' F 6.58
41 J. Idele J. Idele M 0.00
53 M. Plaia M. Plaia D 0.00
51 M. Sonzogni M. Sonzogni G 0.00
57 M. Sportiello M. Sportiello G 0.00
59 N. Zalewski N. Zalewski 1 👟 31' M 6.01
40 R. Obrić R. Obrić 70' D 5.81
Best on the pitch
A. Rabiot
A. Rabiot
F · AC
9.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 56 pass
Mario Gila
Mario Gila
D · AC
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 72 pass
N. Krstović
N. Krstović
F · Atalanta
7.58
1 ⚽
4 shots · 26 pass
Diego Moreira
Diego Moreira
M · AC
7.25
1 👟
1 shots · 42 pass
G. Gaetano
G. Gaetano
M · Atalanta
7.16
1 ⚽
1 shots · 28 pass
Gonçalo Ramos
Gonçalo Ramos
F · AC
7.02
1 ⚽
3 shots · 19 pass
AC Milan AC Milan — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Maignan G 90 6.12 — — 0 42 36% 0 — —
S. Pavlović D 90 6.80 — — 0 63 56% 2 — —
K. De Winter D 90 6.68 — — 0 67 66% 0 — —
Mario Gila D 84 7.90 1 — 1 72 66% 2 — —
Diego Moreira M 90 7.25 — 1 1 42 39% 0 — —
L. Modrić M 75 6.80 — — 0 67 64% 0 — —
Y. Musah M 75 6.68 — — 1 56 55% 2 — —
S. Chukwueze M 53 6.14 — — 1 31 24% 1 — —
C. Pulišić F 75 6.29 — — 0 28 24% 1 — —
Gonçalo Ramos F 90 7.02 1 — 3 19 14% 1 — —
A. Rabiot F 90 9.00 1 1 3 56 49% 6 1 —
A. Jashari M 15 6.35 — — 1 15 14% 0 — —
F. Tomori D 6 6.37 — — 0 3 2% 1 — —
O. Hutchinson F 37 6.90 — — 0 18 17% 4 — —
P. Estupiñán D 15 5.95 — — 0 11 10% 0 — —
R. Loftus-Cheek M 15 5.94 — — 0 11 11% 0 — —
Atalanta Atalanta — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Carnesecchi G 90 6.46 — — 0 20 18% 0 — —
L. Bernasconi D 75 6.12 — — 0 27 25% 1 — —
S. Kolašinac D 20 5.84 — — 0 7 4% 0 — —
T. Kristensen D 90 6.17 — — 0 54 52% 1 — —
R. Bellanova D 90 6.98 — 1 0 58 56% 1 — —
Mario Pasalic M 59 6.42 — — 0 26 26% 1 — —
Éderson M 90 6.29 — — 1 58 53% 1 1 —
L. Samardžić M 75 6.29 — — 3 36 31% 3 — —
J. Rowe F 59 6.78 — — 0 15 13% 2 — —
N. Krstović F 90 7.58 1 — 4 26 22% 0 — —
C. De Ketelaere F 90 6.19 — — 1 41 35% 2 — —
D. Zappacosta D 15 5.88 — — 2 13 12% 1 — —
G. Gaetano M 31 7.16 1 — 1 28 26% 0 — —
G. Scamacca F 15 6.58 — — 0 3 2% 0 — —
N. Zalewski M 31 6.01 — 1 0 15 14% 0 — —
R. Obrić D 70 5.81 — — 0 37 34% 1 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AC Milan vs Atalanta?
The final score was AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta.
What did the model predict before AC Milan vs Atalanta?
The model assigned 42% probability to a AC Milan win, 30% to a draw, and 26% to an Atalanta win.