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AC Milan - Benfica

Europa League September 16, 2026 21:00
AC Milan
#23 · 0 pts
vs
Benfica
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
25.37%
Win
AC Milan
23.88%
Draw
50.75%
Win
Benfica
1.39
Expected xG
3.31

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–2 (9.34%)
1X2 Result
1 25%
X 24%
2 51%
Double Chance ✓ 100.0% hit rate (10 picks)
1X 49%
X2 75%
12 76%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 67%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Benfica a 50% win probability, against 23% for a draw and 25% for AC Milan. Expected goals are 1.4 for AC Milan and 3.3 for Benfica (total 4.7), with a 82% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 9.34% probability.

Score Matrix

↕ AC Milan Benfica →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.9% 3.0% 5.0% 5.5% 4.6% 3.0%
1 1.3% 4.2% 6.9% 7.6% 6.3% 4.2%
2 0.9% 2.9% 4.8% 5.3% 4.4% 2.9%
3 0.4% 1.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.0% 1.3%
4 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5%
5 — 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Recent form

AC Milan AC Milan
No data available
Home clean sheet (120 days) 29%
Benfica Benfica
W Aarhus 1–3
W Aarhus 3–1
D Heart Of Midlothian 1–1
W Heart Of Midlothian 6–1
W FC ST. Gallen 5–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 39%

Playing profile

AC Milan AC Milan
Attack
41
Defence
59
Form
47
Benfica Benfica
Attack
74
Defence
83
Form
77
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0 0
2 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 0 0
3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0 0
4 Benfica Benfica 0 0
5 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0 0
6 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0 0
7 Celje Celje 0 0
8 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0 0
9 Celtic Celtic 0 0
10 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0 0
11 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 0 0
12 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0 0
13 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 0 0
14 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0
15 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 0 0
16 Juventus Juventus 0 0
17 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0 0
18 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0 0
19 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 0 0
20 Lillestrom Lillestrom 0 0
21 Lyon Lyon 0 0
22 Marseille Marseille 0 0
23 AC Milan AC Milan 0 0
24 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0 0
25 OFI OFI 0 0
26 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 0 0
27 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 0 0
28 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0 0
29 Rennes Rennes 0 0
30 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 0 0
31 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 0 0
32 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0 0
33 Sunderland Sunderland 0 0
34 Torreense Torreense 0 0
35 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 0 0
36 Plzen Plzen 0 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win AC Milan vs Benfica?
The model gives AC Milan a 25% win probability, 23% for a draw, and 50% for an Benfica win.
How many goals are expected in AC Milan vs Benfica?
Expected goals: AC Milan 1.4, Benfica 3.3 (total 4.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 82%.
What is the most likely score in AC Milan vs Benfica?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.34%.