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← Serie A

AC Milan - Bologna

Serie A October 28, 2026 18:30 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
AC Milan
#5 · 18 pts
vs
Bologna
#13 · 8 pts
Weather at kick-off 🌤️ Mainly clear 14.2°C 💨 4 km/h · Milan
⚡ Pre-match analysis
45.4%
Win
AC Milan
29.57%
Draw
25.03%
Win
Bologna
1.26
Expected xG
0.69

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (12.35%)
1X2 Result
1 45%
X 30%
2 25%
Double Chance
1X 75%
X2 55%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
✓ 85.5% hit rate (83 picks)
Over 2.5 53%
✓ 60.3% hit rate (73 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives AC Milan a 45% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Bologna. Expected goals are 1.3 for AC Milan and 0.7 for Bologna (total 1.9), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 12.35% probability. In 2 previous meetings, AC Milan have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Bologna.

Season Stats

AC Milan
7W 4D 4L
Bologna
5W 4D 6L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
1.1
1.2
Conceded
1.3
4.3
Shots OT
3.5
3.0
Corners
4.1
55%
Poss.
51%
Percentages
87%
O 1.5
67%
53%
O 2.5
33%
53%
BTTS
40%
33%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Serie A. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
35%
BTTS
AC Milan
5W 1D 4L · at home
Bologna
7W 0D 3L · away
1.5
gls/g
1.2
1.3
Conceded
0.8
50%
Win %
70%
60%
Win or Draw
70%
70%
O 1.5
50%
60%
O 2.5
30%
30%
O 3.5
10%
40%
BTTS
30%
40%
Clean Sht
40%
30%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ AC Milan Bologna →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.3% 9.9% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% —
1 18.0% 12.4% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% —
2 11.3% 7.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% —
3 4.7% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3% — —
4 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% — —
5 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

AC Milan AC Milan
W Udinese 0–2
W Atalanta 3–2
D Sassuolo 1–1
W Lecce 3–0
D Lazio 2–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Bologna Bologna
W Cagliari 0–2
L Inter 1–3
W Lecce 1–2
D Torino 1–1
L Napoli 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

AC Milan AC Milan
Attack
52
Defence
69
Form
70
Bologna Bologna
Attack
34
Defence
63
Form
40
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

2
AC Milan
0
Draw
0
Bologna
3 Feb 2026 Serie A 3–0
14 Sep 2025 Serie A 1–0

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Lazio Lazio 9 25
2 Inter Inter 8 22
3 AS Roma AS Roma 9 21
4 Como Como 9 20
5 AC Milan AC Milan 8 18
6 Frosinone Frosinone 8 14
7 Juventus Juventus 8 14
8 Torino Torino 9 13
9 Cagliari Cagliari 9 13
10 Napoli Napoli 8 11
11 Atalanta Atalanta 8 10
12 Lecce Lecce 8 9
13 Bologna Bologna 8 8
14 Sassuolo Sassuolo 9 8
15 Monza Monza 8 7
16 Genoa Genoa 8 7
17 Udinese Udinese 8 4
18 Fiorentina Fiorentina 8 4
19 Parma Parma 8 4
20 Venezia Venezia 8 3
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?
The model gives AC Milan a 45% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 25% for an Bologna win.
How many goals are expected in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Expected goals: AC Milan 1.3, Bologna 0.7 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.35%.