Adelaide United - Home United
AFC Champions League Two
October 29, 2026 08:45
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.39%
Win
Adelaide United
33.49%
Draw
34.12%
Win
Home United
0.92
1.19
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(14.95%)
1X2 Result
1
32%
X
33%
2
34%
Double Chance
1X
66%
X2
68%
12
67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
53%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Home United a 34% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Adelaide United. Expected goals are 0.9 for Adelaide United and 1.2 for Home United (total 2.1), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 14.95% probability.
Season Stats
2W
0D
0L
4W
2D
2L
Averages per game
2.5
Goals
1.5
0.5
Conceded
1.1
6.0
Shots OT
3.0
2.0
Corners
9.0
51%
Poss.
68%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
63%
100%
O 2.5
38%
50%
BTTS
63%
50%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ
Based on the last 8 matches in AFC Champions League Two. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
13%
BTTS
1W
0D
0L
· at home
2W
1D
1L
· away
3.0
gls/g
0.8
0.0
Conceded
0.5
100%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
75%
100%
O 1.5
25%
100%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
25%
100%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
25%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Adelaide United
Home United →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1% | 14.5% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.1% | 13.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Adelaide United
Attack
45
Defence
69
Form
63
Home United
Attack
57
Defence
79
Form
67
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group F
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Adelaide United
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Home United
|
2 | 4 |
| 3 |
BG Pathum United
|
2 | 1 |
| 4 |
Wofoo Tai Po
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group F
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #2 |
| → Adelaide United | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Home United | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Adelaide United vs Home United?
The model gives Adelaide United a 32% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 34% for an Home United win.
How many goals are expected in Adelaide United vs Home United?
Expected goals: Adelaide United 0.9, Home United 1.2 (total 2.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Adelaide United vs Home United?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.95%.