✓Model correct — prediction Real Madrid
Aboubakary Koita
(ast. Luka Jovic)
12'
Stavros Pilios
(ast. Aboubakary Koita)
75'
32'
(ast. Marc Cucurella)
Jude Bellingham
78'
(ast. Denzel Dumfries)
Kylian Mbappé
90'+2
(ast. Brahim Díaz)
Federico Valverde
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 72% win probability (draw 13%, AEK Athens FC 13%). The final result was AEK Athens FC 2–3 Real Madrid.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
24
5
Shots on target
8
0.95
Actual xG
3.40
5
Saves
3
30%
Possession
70%
0
Corners
7
17
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
⚽Aboubakary Koita
· ast. Luka Jovic
12'
32'
ast. Marc Cucurella ·
Jude Bellingham⚽
Kervin Arriaga
34'
Lovro Majer
/ Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador
53'
Mijat Gaćinović
/ Răzvan Marin
60'
Kaan Kairinen
/ Barnabás Varga
60'
65'
Marc Cucurella
67'
Federico Valverde
/
Yan Diomande
67'
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
/
Bernardo Silva
⚽Stavros Pilios
· ast. Aboubakary Koita
75'
78'
ast. Denzel Dumfries ·
Kylian Mbappé⚽
81'
Brahim Díaz
/
Marc Cucurella
81'
Álvaro Fernández Carreras
/
Vinícius
86'
Carlos Espí
/
Jude Bellingham
Luka Jovic
/ Oleksandr Zubkov
88'
90'+2
ast. Brahim Díaz ·
Federico Valverde⚽
Aboubakary Koita
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
13.53%
AEK
13.68%
X
72.79%
Real ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid)
72.79%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.46
0.95
-1.51
2.60
3.40
+0.8
Real Madrid dominated by xG (3.40 vs 0.95).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
91
A. Brignoli
G
A. Brignoli
G
3
S. Pilios
1 ⚽
D
S. Pilios
1 ⚽
D
44
Filipe Relvas
D
Filipe Relvas
D
2
H. Moukoudi
D
H. Moukoudi
D
12
L. Rota
D
L. Rota
D
14
L. Majer
53'
M
L. Majer
53'
M
6
K. Kairinen
60'
M
K. Kairinen
60'
M
16
K. Arriaga
M
K. Arriaga
M
11
A. Koita
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
A. Koita
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
8
M. Gaćinović
60'
F
M. Gaćinović
60'
F
9
L. Jović
1 👟
88'
F
L. Jović
1 👟
88'
F
Bench
19
B. Varga
30'
F
B. Varga
30'
F
22
C. Lykogiannis
D
C. Lykogiannis
D
21
D. Vida
D
D. Vida
D
41
Marios Balamotis
G
Marios Balamotis
G
27
M. Vitális
M
M. Vitális
M
10
O. Zubkov
2'
M
O. Zubkov
2'
M
20
P. Mantalos
M
P. Mantalos
M
18
R. Marin
30'
M
R. Marin
30'
M
1
T. Strakosha
G
T. Strakosha
G
90
Zini
37'
F
Zini
37'
F
1
T. Courtois
G
T. Courtois
G
17
Marc Cucurella
1 👟
81'
D
Marc Cucurella
1 👟
81'
D
22
A. Rüdiger
D
A. Rüdiger
D
3
Éder Militão
D
Éder Militão
D
24
D. Dumfries
1 👟
D
D. Dumfries
1 👟
D
6
E. Camavinga
M
E. Camavinga
M
20
Bernardo Silva
67'
M
Bernardo Silva
67'
M
7
Vinícius Júnior
81'
M
Vinícius Júnior
81'
M
5
J. Bellingham
1 ⚽
86'
M
J. Bellingham
1 ⚽
86'
M
25
Y. Diomande
67'
M
Y. Diomande
67'
M
10
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
F
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
F
Bench
13
A. Lunin
G
A. Lunin
G
18
Álvaro Fernández
9'
D
Álvaro Fernández
9'
D
21
Brahim Díaz
1 👟
9'
M
Brahim Díaz
1 👟
9'
M
19
Carlos Espí
4'
F
Carlos Espí
4'
F
4
D. Huijsen
D
D. Huijsen
D
9
Endrick
23'
F
Endrick
23'
F
8
F. Valverde
1 ⚽
23'
M
F. Valverde
1 ⚽
23'
M
16
I. Konaté
D
I. Konaté
D
38
Sergio Martínez
M
Sergio Martínez
M
26
Sergio Mestre
G
Sergio Mestre
G
12
T. Alexander-Arnold
D
T. Alexander-Arnold
D
27
Thiago Pitarch
M
Thiago Pitarch
M
Best on the pitch
Kylian Mbappé
F · Real
8.20
1 ⚽
7 shots
· 35 pass
J. Bellingham
M · Real
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 61 pass
F. Valverde
M · Real
7.88
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 31 pass
A. Koita
M · AEK
7.50
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 17 pass
L. Jović
F · AEK
7.17
1 👟
1 shots
· 17 pass
E. Camavinga
M · Real
7.04
· 58 pass
AEK Athens FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Brignoli | G | 90 | 6.88 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 21% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Pilios | D | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 25 | 21% | 0 | — | — |
| Filipe Relvas | D | 90 | 6.56 | — | — | 0 | 32 | 30% | 0 | — | — |
| H. Moukoudi | D | 90 | 6.35 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Rota | D | 90 | 6.12 | — | — | 0 | 24 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Majer | M | 53 | 6.79 | — | — | 0 | 12 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| K. Kairinen | M | 60 | 5.81 | — | — | 0 | 11 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| K. Arriaga | M | 90 | 6.41 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 29% | 0 | 1 | — |
| A. Koita | M | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 16% | 4 | — | 1 |
| M. Gaćinović | F | 60 | 6.66 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Jović | F | 88 | 7.17 | — | 1 | 1 | 17 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Varga | F | 30 | 6.35 | — | — | 0 | 11 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| O. Zubkov | M | 2 | 5.79 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Marin | M | 30 | 5.94 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| Zini | F | 37 | 6.70 | — | — | 0 | 10 | 6% | 4 | — | — |
Real Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Courtois | G | 90 | 6.23 | — | — | 0 | 19 | 18% | 0 | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 81 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 2 | 80 | 75% | 4 | 1 | — |
| A. Rüdiger | D | 90 | 6.67 | — | — | 0 | 77 | 75% | 1 | — | — |
| Éder Militão | D | 90 | 6.88 | — | — | 2 | 67 | 63% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Dumfries | D | 90 | 6.83 | — | 1 | 1 | 46 | 44% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Camavinga | M | 90 | 7.04 | — | — | 0 | 58 | 54% | 9 | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 67 | 6.66 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | M | 81 | 6.41 | — | — | 3 | 31 | 26% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 86 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 61 | 57% | 2 | — | — |
| Y. Diomande | M | 67 | 6.43 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 7 | 35 | 28% | 0 | — | — |
| Álvaro Fernández | D | 9 | 6.09 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 9 | 6.16 | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| Carlos Espí | F | 4 | 6.48 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| Endrick | F | 23 | 6.89 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| F. Valverde | M | 23 | 7.88 | 1 | — | 1 | 31 | 27% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
The final score was AEK Athens FC 2–3 Real Madrid.
What did the model predict before AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
The model assigned 13% probability to a AEK Athens FC win, 13% to a draw, and 72% to an Real Madrid win.