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AEK Larnaca - Pafos

First Division May 16, 2026 17:00
AEK Larnaca
#2 · 53 pts
vs
Pafos
#4 · 58 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
42.07%
Win
AEK Larnaca
28.5%
Draw
29.43%
Win
Pafos
1.24
Expected xG
1.0

The ForzaPitch prediction gives AEK Larnaca a 42% win probability, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Pafos. Expected goals are 1.2 for AEK Larnaca and 1.0 for Pafos (total 2.2), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.2% probability. In 3 previous meetings, AEK Larnaca have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Pafos.

Score Matrix
↕ AEK Larnaca Pafos →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.7% 10.7% 5.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 13.2% 13.2% 6.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.2% 8.2% 4.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.4% 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% —
4 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% — —
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% — — —
Recent form
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
D Omonia Nicosia 1–1
W Apollon Limassol 1–0
L Apoel Nicosia 1–0
W Aris 2–0
D Pafos 1–1
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 41%
Pafos Pafos
W Aris 2–0
L Omonia Nicosia 0–2
L Apollon Limassol 2–1
D Apoel Nicosia 3–3
D AEK Larnaca 1–1
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 26%
Playing profile
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
Attack
26
Defence
76
Form
57
Pafos Pafos
Attack
35
Defence
64
Form
43
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
AEK Larnaca
1
Draw
1
Pafos
D 18 Apr 2026 First Division 1–1
W 25 Jan 2026 First Division 2–1
L 5 Oct 2025 First Division 2–4
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 34 81
1 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 26 61
2 AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 26 53
2 AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 34 65
3 Apollon Limassol Apollon Limassol 26 53
3 Apollon Limassol Apollon Limassol 34 64
4 Pafos Pafos 34 58
4 Pafos Pafos 26 51
5 Apoel Nicosia Apoel Nicosia 34 52
5 Apoel Nicosia Apoel Nicosia 26 45
6 Aris Aris 34 51
6 Aris Aris 26 43
7 Omonia Aradippou Omonia Aradippou 26 34
7 Anorthosis Anorthosis 32 45
8 AEL AEL 32 41
8 AEL AEL 26 33
9 Anorthosis Anorthosis 26 32
9 Krasava Ypsonas Krasava Ypsonas 32 39
10 Omonia Aradippou Omonia Aradippou 32 39
10 Krasava Ypsonas Krasava Ypsonas 26 28
11 Olympiakos Olympiakos 32 37
11 Olympiakos Olympiakos 26 28
12 Akritas Akritas 32 35
12 Akritas Akritas 26 26
13 Ethnikos Achna Ethnikos Achna 26 23
13 Ethnikos Achna Ethnikos Achna 32 33
14 Enosis Enosis 32 4
14 Enosis Enosis 26 1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
The model gives AEK Larnaca a 42% win probability, 28% for a draw, and 29% for an Pafos win.
How many goals are expected in AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
Expected goals: AEK Larnaca 1.2, Pafos 1.0 (total 2.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.2%.