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AEK Larnaca - Pafos

First Division September 13, 2026 18:00
AEK Larnaca
#1 · 6 pts
vs
Pafos
#5 · 4 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
35.81%
Win
AEK Larnaca
31.21%
Draw
32.98%
Win
Pafos
2.54
Expected xG
2.08

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (9.15%)
1X2 Result
1 36%
X 31%
2 33%
Double Chance
1X 67%
X2 64%
12 69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
✓ 86.7% hit rate (15 picks)
Over 2.5 52%
✓ 72.7% hit rate (11 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives AEK Larnaca a 35% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Pafos. Expected goals are 2.5 for AEK Larnaca and 2.1 for Pafos (total 4.6), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.15% probability. In 4 previous meetings, AEK Larnaca have won 1 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Pafos.

Season Stats

AEK Larnaca
8W 5D 2L
Pafos
5W 7D 3L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
1.9
0.9
Conceded
1.1
3.7
Shots OT
5.0
4.7
Corners
4.0
51%
Poss.
49%
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
93%
33%
O 2.5
47%
53%
BTTS
47%
33%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in First Division. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
35%
O 3.5
45%
BTTS
AEK Larnaca
6W 2D 2L · at home
Pafos
3W 4D 3L · away
1.8
gls/g
1.8
0.7
Conceded
1.4
60%
Win %
30%
80%
Win or Draw
70%
70%
O 1.5
90%
40%
O 2.5
70%
30%
O 3.5
40%
30%
BTTS
60%
50%
Clean Sht
30%
20%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ AEK Larnaca Pafos →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3%
1 2.5% 5.2% 5.4% 3.7% 1.9% 0.8%
2 3.2% 6.6% 6.9% 4.8% 2.5% 1.0%
3 2.7% 5.6% 5.8% 4.0% 2.1% 0.9%
4 1.7% 3.6% 3.7% 2.6% 1.3% 0.6%
5 0.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%

Recent form

AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
W Nea Salamis 1–4
W Apoel Nicosia 3–1
W Aris 3–4
D Pafos 2–2
D Omonia Nicosia 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 18%
Pafos Pafos
D Olympiakos 0–0
W Karmiotissa 0–3
W Apoel Nicosia 2–0
D AEK Larnaca 2–2
W Aris 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 31%

Playing profile

AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
Attack
27
Defence
41
Form
36
Pafos Pafos
Attack
25
Defence
43
Form
31
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
AEK Larnaca
2
Draw
1
Pafos
16 May 2026 First Division 2–2
18 Apr 2026 First Division 1–1
25 Jan 2026 First Division 2–1
5 Oct 2025 First Division 2–4

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 2 6
2 AEL AEL 3 6
3 Omonia 29is Maiou Omonia 29is Maiou 2 4
4 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 2 4
5 Pafos Pafos 2 4
6 Apollon Limassol Apollon Limassol 2 4
7 Omonia Aradippou Omonia Aradippou 2 4
8 Apoel Nicosia Apoel Nicosia 2 3
9 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2 2
10 Aris Aris 2 1
11 Karmiotissa Karmiotissa 2 1
12 Nea Salamis Nea Salamis 3 1
13 Anorthosis Anorthosis 2 0
14 Krasava Ypsonas Krasava Ypsonas 2 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
The model gives AEK Larnaca a 35% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 32% for an Pafos win.
How many goals are expected in AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
Expected goals: AEK Larnaca 2.5, Pafos 2.1 (total 4.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.15%.