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Afan Lido - Newport City

FAW Championship September 25, 2026 20:30
Afan Lido
#8 · 10 pts
vs
Newport City
#13 · 6 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.11%
Win
Afan Lido
30.23%
Draw
33.65%
Win
Newport City
1.47
Expected xG
1.33

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (9.73%)
1X2 Result
1 36%
X 30%
2 34%
Double Chance
1X 66%
X2 64%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 58%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Afan Lido a 36% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Newport City. Expected goals are 1.5 for Afan Lido and 1.3 for Newport City (total 2.8), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.73% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Afan Lido have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Newport City.

Season Stats

Afan Lido
7W 1D 7L
Newport City
5W 1D 9L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
1.3
1.9
Conceded
1.9
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
67%
67%
O 2.5
67%
53%
BTTS
40%
40%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
55%
O 3.5
30%
BTTS
Afan Lido
6W 1D 3L · at home
Newport City
4W 1D 5L · away
2.0
gls/g
1.2
1.3
Conceded
1.6
60%
Win %
40%
70%
Win or Draw
50%
60%
O 1.5
70%
60%
O 2.5
50%
60%
O 3.5
50%
40%
BTTS
20%
40%
Clean Sht
30%
30%
Failed to Score
50%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Afan Lido Newport City →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.1% 8.1% 5.4% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
1 9.0% 11.9% 7.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.6% 8.7% 5.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 3.2% 4.3% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% —
5 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Afan Lido Afan Lido
W Pontypridd Town 0–1
L Baglan Dragons 2–1
D Ynyshir Albions 0–0
L Trethomas Bluebirds 5–2
W Pontardawe Town 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 46%
Newport City Newport City
L Ynyshir Albions 0–1
L Baglan Dragons 0–1
W Pontardawe Town 0–4
L Carmarthen Town 1–2
W llanelli AFC 1–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 29%

Playing profile

Afan Lido Afan Lido
Attack
36
Defence
61
Form
51
Newport City Newport City
Attack
36
Defence
66
Form
52
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Afan Lido
0
Draw
2
Newport City
13 Feb 2026 FAW Championship 0–1
25 Jul 2025 FAW Championship 0–1

South

# Team G Pts
1 Swansea University Swansea University 6 16
2 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 6 15
3 Treowen Stars Treowen Stars 7 13
4 Pontypridd Town Pontypridd Town 6 13
5 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 8 13
6 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 7 11
7 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 7 10
8 Afan Lido Afan Lido 8 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds Trethomas Bluebirds 7 9
10 Ynyshir Albions Ynyshir Albions 6 9
11 Caerphilly Athletic Caerphilly Athletic 7 8
12 Cardiff Draconians Cardiff Draconians 5 7
13 Newport City Newport City 5 6
14 Pontardawe Town Pontardawe Town 6 3
15 llanelli AFC llanelli AFC 8 2
16 Llantwit Major Llantwit Major 5 1

What's at stake · South

Top 2 advance to the next round

Afan Lido Newport City
Current #8 #13
→ Afan Lido #6 #13
→ Draw #7 #12
→ Newport City #8 #9

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Afan Lido vs Newport City?
The model gives Afan Lido a 36% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 33% for an Newport City win.
How many goals are expected in Afan Lido vs Newport City?
Expected goals: Afan Lido 1.5, Newport City 1.3 (total 2.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Afan Lido vs Newport City?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.73%.