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Ajaccio - Caen

National 1 May 01, 2026 19:30 Stade de la Libération, Boulogne-Sur-Mer
Ajaccio
vs
Caen
#3 · 15 pts
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 17.9°C 💨 5 km/h · Boulogne-Sur-Mer
⚡ Pre-match analysis
33.33%
Win
Ajaccio
33.33%
Draw
33.33%
Win
Caen
0.86
Expected xG
1.6

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–1 (13.8%)
1X2 Result
1 33%
X 33%
2 33%
Double Chance
1X 67%
X2 67%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 52%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ajaccio a 33% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Caen. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ajaccio and 1.6 for Caen (total 2.5), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 13.8% probability.

Score Matrix

↕ Ajaccio Caen →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.6% 13.8% 11.0% 5.8% 2.3% 0.7%
1 7.4% 11.8% 9.4% 5.0% 2.0% 0.6%
2 3.1% 5.0% 4.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
3 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% —
5 — 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Ajaccio Ajaccio
No data available
Caen Caen
W Rouen 3–2
L Concarneau 2–0
W Gobelins 2–0
W Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–2
L Bastia 0–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 26%

Playing profile

Ajaccio Ajaccio
Attack
0
Defence
0
Form
0
Caen Caen
Attack
46
Defence
72
Form
59
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 La Roche VF La Roche VF 8 18
2 Rouen Rouen 8 17
3 Caen Caen 8 15
4 Concarneau Concarneau 8 13
5 Versailles Versailles 8 13
6 Amiens Amiens 8 12
7 Cannes Cannes 8 12
8 Thionville Lusitanos Thionville Lusitanos 8 12
9 Gobelins Gobelins 8 12
10 Bastia Bastia 9 11
11 Quevilly Quevilly 8 10
12 Le Puy Foot Le Puy Foot 8 10
13 Orleans Orleans 9 9
14 Fleury 91 Fleury 91 8 9
15 Valenciennes Valenciennes 8 8
16 Aubagne Aubagne 8 7
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 Bourg-en-bresse 01 8 5
18 Villefranche Villefranche 8 4
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Ajaccio vs Caen?
The model gives Ajaccio a 33% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 33% for an Caen win.
How many goals are expected in Ajaccio vs Caen?
Expected goals: Ajaccio 0.9, Caen 1.6 (total 2.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Ajaccio vs Caen?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.8%.