Premier League
· Regular Season - 12
October 23, 2026 18:30
38'
(ast. Jordhy Thompson)
Dmitriy Rybchinskiy
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Orenburg a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Akhmat 32%). The final result was Akhmat 0–1 FC Orenburg. In 4 previous meetings, Akhmat have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for FC Orenburg.
Match statistics
24
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
5
1.65
Actual xG
0.76
4
Saves
5
64%
Possession
36%
5
Corners
2
6
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
38'
ast. Jordhy Thompson ·
Dmitriy Rybchinskiy⚽
Kirill Shchetinin
/ Mohamed Konate
52'
60'
Danila Khotulev
/
Aleksey Tataev
62'
Gedeon Guzina
Mohamed Konate
66'
Miroslav Bogosavac
/ Erald maksuti
67'
Georgiy Melkadze
/ Maksim Sidorov
67'
71'
Egor Nazarenko
/
Damian Puebla
71'
Renat Golybin
/
Dmitriy Rybchinskiy
Egas Cacintura
/ Maksim Samorodov
77'
83'
Andrey Kasadzhikov
/
Jordhy Thompson
83'
Anton Lukashov
/
Gedeon Guzina
90'+3
Anton Lukashov
Pre-match prediction
32.19%
Akhmat
32.85%
X
34.96%
FC ←
we assigned to the actual result (FC Orenburg)
34.96%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.73
1.65
+0.92
0.90
0.76
-0.14
Akhmat dominated by xG (1.65 vs 0.76).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
V. Ulyanov
G
V. Ulyanov
G
8
M. Bogosavac
67'
D
M. Bogosavac
67'
D
5
K. Cake
D
K. Cake
D
6
K. Sidibé
D
K. Sidibé
D
95
A. Adamov
D
A. Adamov
D
11
Ismael Silva Lima
M
Ismael Silva Lima
M
4
T. Ibishev
M
T. Ibishev
M
10
K. Shchetinin
52'
M
K. Shchetinin
52'
M
17
Egas Cacintura
77'
M
Egas Cacintura
77'
M
7
L. Sadulaev
M
L. Sadulaev
M
77
G. Melkadze
67'
F
G. Melkadze
67'
F
Bench
70
A. Gadzhiev
M
A. Gadzhiev
M
97
A. Kasadzhikov
F
A. Kasadzhikov
F
87
A. R. Elberdov
M
A. R. Elberdov
M
76
E. Maksuti
23'
F
E. Maksuti
23'
F
42
Manuel Keliano
M
Manuel Keliano
M
13
M. Konaté
38'
F
M. Konaté
38'
F
20
M. Samorodov
13'
F
M. Samorodov
13'
F
81
M. Sidorov
23'
D
M. Sidorov
23'
D
71
R. Mitsaev
G
R. Mitsaev
G
1
B. Ovsyannikov
G
B. Ovsyannikov
G
26
E. Tsenov
D
E. Tsenov
D
5
A. Tataev
60'
D
A. Tataev
60'
D
6
J. Palacios
D
J. Palacios
D
24
M. Sivis
D
M. Sivis
D
57
E. Bolotov
M
E. Bolotov
M
78
R. Kul
M
R. Kul
M
20
D. Rybchinskiy
1 ⚽
71'
M
D. Rybchinskiy
1 ⚽
71'
M
8
D. Puebla
71'
M
D. Puebla
71'
M
10
J. Thompson
1 👟
83'
M
J. Thompson
1 👟
83'
M
30
G. Guzina
83'
F
G. Guzina
83'
F
Bench
35
A. Degtev
G
A. Degtev
G
77
A. Kasadzhikov
7'
F
A. Kasadzhikov
7'
F
38
A. Kasimov
D
A. Kasimov
D
22
A. Lukashov
7'
D
A. Lukashov
7'
D
4
D. Khotulev
30'
D
D. Khotulev
30'
D
3
D. Vedernikov
D
D. Vedernikov
D
11
E. Nazarenko
19'
M
E. Nazarenko
19'
M
7
J. González
F
J. González
F
80
M. Pykhcheev
M
M. Pykhcheev
M
63
O. Minatulaev
M
O. Minatulaev
M
27
Renat Golybin
19'
M
Renat Golybin
19'
M
53
V. Korobov
G
V. Korobov
G
Best on the pitch
D. Rybchinskiy
M · FC
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 10 pass
J. Thompson
M · FC
7.70
1 👟
1 shots
· 26 pass
B. Ovsyannikov
G · FC
7.52
· 36 pass
M. Sivis
D · FC
7.38
· 32 pass
J. Palacios
D · FC
7.35
· 17 pass
E. Tsenov
D · FC
7.30
· 17 pass
Akhmat — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Ulyanov | G | 90 | 7.07 | — | — | 0 | 32 | 21% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Bogosavac | D | 67 | 6.29 | — | — | 0 | 34 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Cake | D | 90 | 6.41 | — | — | 1 | 72 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Sidibé | D | 90 | 6.76 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 46% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Adamov | D | 90 | 6.23 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Ismael Silva Lima | M | 90 | 6.67 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 53% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Ibishev | M | 90 | 6.64 | — | — | 4 | 55 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Shchetinin | M | 52 | 5.81 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| Egas Cacintura | M | 77 | 5.56 | — | — | 0 | 26 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Sadulaev | M | 90 | 6.56 | — | — | 4 | 19 | 13% | 0 | — | — |
| G. Melkadze | F | 67 | 6.21 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Maksuti | F | 23 | 6.68 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Konaté | F | 38 | 6.14 | — | — | 6 | 3 | 1% | 0 | 1 | — |
| M. Samorodov | F | 13 | 7.07 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Sidorov | D | 23 | 6.44 | — | — | 3 | 14 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
FC Orenburg — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Ovsyannikov | G | 90 | 7.52 | — | — | 0 | 36 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Tsenov | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 0 | 17 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Tataev | D | 60 | 7.05 | — | — | 0 | 12 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Palacios | D | 90 | 7.35 | — | — | 0 | 17 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Sivis | D | 90 | 7.38 | — | — | 0 | 32 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Bolotov | M | 90 | 6.23 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 18% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Kul | M | 90 | 6.28 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Rybchinskiy | M | 71 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 10 | 9% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Puebla | M | 71 | 6.47 | — | — | 0 | 12 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Thompson | M | 83 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 26 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Guzina | F | 83 | 6.36 | — | — | 2 | 24 | 11% | 0 | 1 | — |
| A. Kasadzhikov | F | 7 | 6.51 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Lukashov | D | 7 | 6.68 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Khotulev | D | 30 | 7.01 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Nazarenko | M | 19 | 6.74 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Renat Golybin | M | 19 | 6.93 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Akhmat vs FC Orenburg?
The final score was Akhmat 0–1 FC Orenburg.
What did the model predict before Akhmat vs FC Orenburg?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Akhmat win, 32% to a draw, and 34% to an FC Orenburg win.