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Al-Hilal Saudi FC - Al-Gharafa

AFC Champions League September 15, 2026 20:15
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
#3 · 0 pts
vs
Al-Gharafa
#9 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
49.96%
Win
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
25.28%
Draw
24.76%
Win
Al-Gharafa
3.34
Expected xG
1.32

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (9.03%)
1X2 Result
1 50%
X 25%
2 25%
Double Chance
1X 75%
X2 50%
12 75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 65%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 49% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Al-Gharafa. Expected goals are 3.3 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.3 for Al-Gharafa (total 4.7), with a 82% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.03% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Al-Gharafa.

Season Stats

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
7W 2D 0L
Al-Gharafa
2W 0D 6L
Averages per game
2.2
Goals
0.9
1.0
Conceded
2.6
6.0
Shots OT
—
6.0
Corners
—
51%
Poss.
—
Percentages
78%
O 1.5
88%
78%
O 2.5
50%
67%
BTTS
25%
33%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ Based on the last 9 matches in AFC Champions League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
68%
O 3.5
53%
BTTS
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
4W 1D 0L · at home
Al-Gharafa
0W 0D 4L · away
2.8
gls/g
0.8
1.2
Conceded
4.2
80%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
0%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
75%
60%
O 3.5
75%
80%
BTTS
25%
20%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
75%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Al-Hilal Saudi FC Al-Gharafa →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% —
1 3.2% 4.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
2 5.3% 7.0% 4.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
3 5.9% 7.8% 5.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
4 4.9% 6.5% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
5 3.3% 4.3% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Recent form

Al-Hilal Saudi FC Al-Hilal Saudi FC
D Al Sadd 3–3
W Al Wahda FC 2–1
D Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0–0
W Sharjah FC 0–1
W Al Shorta 4–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 30%
Al-Gharafa Al-Gharafa
L Tractor Sazi 0–2
L Al-Ittihad FC 7–0
W Al Wahda FC 1–0
L Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–0
L Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 18%

Playing profile

Al-Hilal Saudi FC Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Attack
57
Defence
67
Form
66
Al-Gharafa Al-Gharafa
Attack
39
Defence
50
Form
34
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draw
0
Al-Gharafa
3 Nov 2025 AFC Champions League 2–1

West Region

# Team G Pts
1 Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah 0 0
2 Al-Nassr Al-Nassr 0 0
3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0 0
4 Al-Qadisiyah FC Al-Qadisiyah FC 0 0
5 Al Ain Al Ain 0 0
6 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0 0
7 Al-Wasl FC Al-Wasl FC 0 0
8 Al Sadd Al Sadd 0 0
9 Al-Gharafa Al-Gharafa 0 0
10 Al Shamal Al Shamal 0 0
11 Esteghlal FC Esteghlal FC 0 0
12 Tractor Sazi Tractor Sazi 0 0
13 Neftchi Neftchi 0 0
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0 0
15 Al-Ittihad FC Al-Ittihad FC 0 0
16 Pakhtakor Pakhtakor 0 0

What's at stake · West Region

Top 2 advance to the next round

Al-Hilal Saudi FC Al-Gharafa
Current #3 #9
→ Al-Hilal Saudi FC #1 #9
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Al-Gharafa #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Gharafa?
The model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 49% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 24% for an Al-Gharafa win.
How many goals are expected in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Gharafa?
Expected goals: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.3, Al-Gharafa 1.3 (total 4.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 82%.
What is the most likely score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Gharafa?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.03%.