Saudi Pro League
· Regular Season - 28
April 11, 2026 18:00
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Buraidah
✗Model wrong — prediction NEOM, result Al Najma wins
S. M. Al Aqel M.
43'
B. Boutobba
(ast. Felippe Cardoso)
49'
56'
(ast. S. Benrahma)
A. Kone
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave NEOM a 56% win probability (draw 20%, Al Najma 23%). The final result was Al Najma 2–1 NEOM. In 1 previous meetings, Al Najma have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for NEOM.
Match statistics
4
Total shots
16
4
Shots on target
4
0.55
Actual xG
2.69
3
Saves
2
24%
Possession
76%
3
Corners
22
12
Tackles
17
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
13'
A. Kone
A. Al Harabi
13'
⚽S. M. Al Aqel M.
43'
S. M. Al Aqel M.
45'+2
46'
F. Abdi
/
I. Hawsawi
⚽B. Boutobba
· ast. Felippe Cardoso
49'
56'
ast. S. Benrahma ·
A. Kone⚽
58'
M. Al Saad
/
A. Kone
B. Boutobba
/ M. Y. Dawran M.
65'
73'
A. Hegazy
76'
A. Abdu
/
A. Al Oyayari
76'
M. Al Burayk
/
R. Messi
Guga
/ A. Al Shammeri
86'
Pre-match prediction
23.36%
Al ←
20.64%
X
56.0%
NEOM
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Al Najma)
23.36%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.93
0.55
-0.38
2.04
2.69
+0.65
NEOM dominated by xG (2.69 vs 0.55).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
2
D
3
D
33
D
18
Abdulaziz Al Harabi
D
Abdulaziz Al Harabi
D
24
D
16
Guga
86'
M
80
Nabil Donga
M
Nabil Donga
M
98
Bilal Boutobba
1 ⚽
65'
M
Bilal Boutobba
1 ⚽
65'
M
90
47'
F
70
Felippe Cardoso
1 👟
F
Felippe Cardoso
1 👟
F
Bench
11
Majed Dawran
34'
M
Majed Dawran
34'
M
81
G
27
Islam Hawsawi
45'
D
Islam Hawsawi
45'
D
44
N. Zézé
D
N. Zézé
D
26
Ahmed Hegazy
D
Ahmed Hegazy
D
15
Abdulmalik Al Oyayari
75'
D
Abdulmalik Al Oyayari
75'
D
8
M
72
A. Koné
1 ⚽
58'
M
A. Koné
1 ⚽
58'
M
18
M
10
Saïd Benrahma
1 👟
M
Saïd Benrahma
1 👟
M
80
R. Messi
75'
M
R. Messi
75'
M
19
L. Rodríguez
F
L. Rodríguez
F
Bench
25
F. Abdi
54'
D
F. Abdi
54'
D
2
Mohammed Al Burayk
24'
D
Mohammed Al Burayk
24'
D
14
Muhannad Al Saad
41'
F
Muhannad Al Saad
41'
F
Best on the pitch
Bilal Boutobba
M · Al
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
A. Koné
M · NEOM
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 55 pass
D · Al
7.50
· 7 pass
Mohammed Al Burayk
D · NEOM
7.20
· 15 pass
D · Al
7.20
· 18 pass
Felippe Cardoso
F · Al
7.20
1 👟
· 21 pass
Al Najma — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 99 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 10% | — | — | — | |
| D | 99 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 7% | 1 | — | — | |
| D | 99 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — | |
| D | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — | |
| Abdulaziz Al Harabi | D | 99 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D | 99 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 10% | 3 | — | — | |
| Guga | M | 86 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Nabil Donga | M | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | 4 | — | — |
| Bilal Boutobba | M | 65 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 19 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| F | 47 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 2% | — | — | 1 | |
| Felippe Cardoso | F | 99 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Majed Dawran | M | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
NEOM — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 99 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — | |
| Islam Hawsawi | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Zézé | D | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Ahmed Hegazy | D | 99 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 44 | 38% | — | 1 | — |
| Abdulmalik Al Oyayari | D | 75 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 79 | 75% | 2 | — | — | |
| A. Koné | M | 58 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 55 | 50% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 52% | 2 | — | — | |
| Saïd Benrahma | M | 99 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 3 | 52 | 44% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Messi | M | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Rodríguez | F | 99 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Abdi | D | 54 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Mohammed Al Burayk | D | 24 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Muhannad Al Saad | F | 41 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Al Najma vs NEOM?
The final score was Al Najma 2–1 NEOM.
What did the model predict before Al Najma vs NEOM?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Al Najma win, 20% to a draw, and 56% to an NEOM win.